Evaluating Alternative Strategies for Minimizing Unintended Fitness Consequences of Cultured Individuals on Wild Populations

Artificial propagation strategies often incur selection in captivity that leads to traits that are maladaptive in the wild. For propagation programs focused on production rather than demographic contribution to wild populations, effects on wild populations can occur through unintentional escapement or the need to release individuals into natural environments for part of their life cycle. In this case, 2 alternative management strategies might reduce unintended fitness consequences on natural populations: (1) reduce selection in captivity as much as possible to reduce fitness load (keep them similar), or (2) breed a separate population to reduce captive‐wild interactions as much as possible (make them different). We quantitatively evaluate these 2 strategies with a coupled demographic–genetic model based on Pacific salmon hatcheries that incorporates a variety of relevant processes and dynamics: selection in the hatchery relative to the wild, assortative mating based on the trait under selection, and different life cycle arrangements in terms of hatchery release, density dependence, natural selection, and reproduction. Model results indicate that, if natural selection only occurs between reproduction and captive release, the similar strategy performs better. However, if natural selection occurs between captive release and reproduction, the different and similar strategies present viable alternatives to reducing unintended fitness consequences because of the greater opportunity to purge maladaptive individuals. In this case, the appropriate approach depends on the feasibility of each strategy and the demographic goal (e.g., increasing natural abundance, or ensuring that a high proportion of natural spawners are naturally produced). In addition, the fitness effects of hatchery release are much greater if hatchery release occurs before (vs. after) density‐dependent interactions. Given the logistical challenges to achieving both the similar and different strategies, evaluation of not just the preferred strategy but also the consequences of failing to achieve the desired target is critical. Evaluación de Estrategias Alternativas para Minimizar las Consecuencias No Inesperadas en la Adecuación de Individuos Criados en Cautiverio sobre Poblaciones Silvestres     

Disturbance-Response Analysis: a Method for Rapid Assessment of the Threat to Species in Disturbed Areas

Abstract:  We developed a method with which to analyze a specie's response to chronic anthropogenic disturbance (CAD). We regressed density of individuals on the intensity of 3 disturbance agents (human activities, raising livestock, and land degradation) along CAD gradients to determine how much CAD is experienced by a species; whether species are ruderal (achieving maximum densities in disturbed sites); whether density declines as a result of CAD; which disturbance agents are responsible for this reduction; and the number of populations that decline as a result of CAD. We tested the method on 9 threatened Mammillaria species (Cactaceae). Seven species were ruderal. In 4 species, actual disturbance surpassed the CAD intensity in which plants achieved their maximum densities; thus, the density of those 4 species appeared to be declining. For 7 species, some populations were threatened by human activities or livestock, whereas others were favored by them. Land degradation negatively affected all species. Our results allowed us to distinguish 4 groups of species that had similar responses and thus may require different forms of management. Our method provided an estimation of the growth rate (λ) of the studied populations that was significantly correlated with λs obtained from demographic studies. The size structures of populations were consistent with the predictions of the analysis, which suggests our results are consistent and reliable. Disturbance–response analysis provides a basis for management in heavily populated areas, where conservation must be achieved along with development activities that cause CAD. The method provides readily interpretable information, which facilitates participative decision making; the data are rapidly generated, which makes it appropriate when results are required promptly or for assessment of large numbers of species; and it provides a comprehensive perception of how threatened species behave in the real world.     

A comprehensive action determination model: Toward a broader understanding of ecological behaviour using the example of travel mode choice

This paper examines a first version of a Comprehensive Action Determination Model (CADM) of ecological behaviour that incorporates intentional, normative, situational, and habitual influences on environmentally friendly behaviour. The main assumptions of the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), the norm-activation model (NAM), the theoretical concept of habit and the ipsative theory of behaviour were integrated into a comprehensive model. The model was tested using a structural equation modelling approach on a sample of 389 students in the domain of travel mode choice and compared to established less comprehensive models (TPB, NAM and a combination of both). The results show that all compared models had a good to excellent model fit and explained a substantial amount of variation in travel mode choice. The CADM, however, explained the greatest degree of variation as compared with the other models, at 65%. Subjective and objective situational constraints were responsible for most of the variation in travel mode choice in the CADM, but intentions and habits also had a significant impact. The influence of social and personal norms was mediated by habits and intention, while habits moderated the relationship between intention and behaviour. The importance of the CADM as a framework for other domains of ecological behaviour is also discussed.     

测定空气中甲醇的毛细管气相色谱方法研究

使用HP—Wax毛细管柱进行水样分析，甲醇和乙醇分离效果好，该方法的精密度和准确度高，每0.2μL的最低检出限为0．7ng。此法利用了化学工作站，使得分析更简单、方便。     

Male reproductive success: paternity contribution to queens and workers in Formica ants

The relative number of workers and female sexuals fathered by two males mated with a queen were directly assessed using microsatellite and allozyme markers in field colonies of the ants Formica exsecta and F. truncorum. In both species one of the two males consistently fathered more offspring than the other. There was, however, no evidence that one male might be particularly successful in fathering a disproportionally high proportion of female sexuals relative to the proportion of workers. Moreover, in F. exsecta, the proportions of worker pupae and worker adults fathered by each male did not differ significantly between cohorts. The most likely explanation for this pattern is that females store different amounts of sperm from the two males they mated with. Received: 10 January 1997 / Accepted after revision: 22 March 1997     

地铁人员可用疏散时间模拟

人员可用安全疏散时间是衡量公共场所安全性能的重要指标.为了能从定量风险分析的角度考察公共场所的安全疏散性能,引入蒙特卡罗模拟技术.选取天津小白楼地铁系统作为研究对象;建立极限状态方程以刻画地铁人员可用安全疏散时间;最后,通过Matlab提供的M语言编程,实现了蒙特卡罗模拟,得到了与极限状态方程相对应的概率密度函数,累加分布函数和余补累加分布函数.通过余补累加分布函数定量描述了人员在地铁火灾事故中安全逃生的概率.结果表明,蒙特卡罗模拟技术是描述同时具有参数不确定性和模型不确定性的复杂问题的有力工具.     

Assessment of the Age Structure of Sable Samples Using Three Methods of Age Determination

The age structure of sable samples has been analyzed on the basis of parameters obtained by three methods of age determination: by annual cementum layers (Klevezal, 1988), canine root canal width (Smirnov, 1960), and the degree of development of the mastication muscles and sagittal crest on the skull (Timofeev and Nadeev, 1955). It has been found that the first two methods produce similar results (r = 0.95) that are suitable for use in the practice of monitoring and commercial game management. The third method is simpler but less accurate and can be recommended only for the preliminary assessment of age ratios in populations. The results of such assessment by the method proposed by Klevezal are sufficiently accurate for a detailed analysis of population structure and dynamics of its reproductive core, but this method is laborious and involves a complicated histological procedure. When large samples are studied for the purposes of monitoring and management planning, the method proposed by Smirnov is preferable.     

气象和排放变化对PM2.5污染的定量影响

基于WRF-CMAQ模型系统定量分析了气象和排放因素对全国及重点区域PM_2.5污染影响程度.从年度特征来看,与2015年相比,2016年、2017年全国空气质量明显改善,PM_2.5年均浓度分别下降7%和14%;2016年气象条件总体转好,气象因素和排放因素变化导致全国PM_2.5年均浓度下降幅度分别为4%和3%;2017年全国气象条件与2015年相比基本持平,大气污染物排放量下降是PM_2.5污染减轻的决定因素.除汾渭平原外,京津冀及周边地区"2+26"城市、长三角、成渝地区空气中的PM_2.5年均浓度持续下降;珠三角气象条件变化对PM_2.5影响较大,2017年导致PM_2.5浓度上升了29%;除汾渭平原外,其他4个重点地区的污染物排放变化导致PM_2.5年均浓度下降且2017年的下降幅度进一步加大,说明污染管控措施的环境效益明显.从季节特征来看,气象影响值的区域性差异明显.本文分析方法可用于制定空气质量目标或者评估污染控制方案的环境效果.     

纳污河流抗性基因和微生物群落相关性

通过Miseq高通量测序分析和荧光定量PCR技术,研究某纳污河流中四环素类与磺胺类抗性基因（ARGs）的分布特征、传播情况及微生物群落结构相关性.结果表明：在河流地表水与沉积物中均检测到四环素类抗性基因tetA和tetB与磺胺类抗性基因sul1和sul2,四环素类抗性基因和磺胺类抗性基因的绝对丰度分别为5.09×10³~1.26×10⁷,3.94×10⁵~1.32×10⁹copics/L,磺胺sul1抗生素抗性基因丰度显著高于其它基因;河流主要优势菌门为Proteobacteria,Bacteroidetes,Firmicutes,Actinobacteria和Cyanobacteria,其平均总相对丰度占总比例的95.62%,且总体差异较小.抗性基因与微生物群落冗余分析显示,Methylotenera菌属是影响tetA抗性基因分布丰度的主要因素,Dechloromonas和Clostridium sensu stricto 1菌属是影响tetB抗性基因分布丰度的主要因素,Dechloromonas、Clostridium sensu stricto 1和Methylotenera菌属是影响sul1、sul2抗性基因分布丰度的主要因素.