北京市安全生产与经济社会发展耦合关系研究

调查和研究北京市安全生产历史资料数据,系统地分析生产安全的发展历史、现状、特征与存在的问题;选取3大类18个与安全生产关系密切的经济社会相对指标,通过散点图、相关系数、主因子分析等方法建立了亿元产值死亡率与经济社会相对指标的回归模型;结合目前北京市的安全生产现状,使用差分自回归滑动平均法及趋势分析法,计算未来各类事故死亡人数、亿元产值死亡率的变化趋势,并预测全市安全生产的发展趋势;提出经济社会和安全监管方面的相关对策建议,为有关部门制定政策规划提供理论依据。     

基于均生函数的最优子集回归方法在江西雨季降水预测中的应用

通过基于均生函数的最优子集回归方法在江西雨季 (4～ 6月 )降水预测中的应用 ,发现预报步长为 1 a时 ,预报效果较为理想。其中 4月份的预报能力最强 ,5、 6月份的预报能力次之     

江苏省人口,耕地与经济发展关系的研究

本文通过建立动态多元回归模型,对经济发达地区－江苏省经济发展,人口增长、投资增加与耕地资源之间动态变化弹性关系进行了研究分析,提出了促进江苏省耕地资源可持续利用的政策建议。     

Using structural equation modeling to investigate relationships among ecological variables

Structural equation modeling is an advanced multivariate statistical process with which a researcher can construct theoretical concepts, test their measurement reliability, hypothesize and test a theory about their relationships, take into account measurement errors, and consider both direct and indirect effects of variables on one another. Latent variables are theoretical concepts that unite phenomena under a single term, e.g., ecosystem health, environmental condition, and pollution (Bollen, 1989). Latent variables are not measured directly but can be expressed in terms of one or more directly measurable variables called indicators. For some researchers, defining, constructing, and examining the validity of latent variables may be the end task of itself. For others, testing hypothesized relationships of latent variables may be of interest. We analyzed the correlation matrix of eleven environmental variables from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program for Estuaries (EMAP-E) using methods of structural equation modeling. We hypothesized and tested a conceptual model to characterize the interdependencies between four latent variables-sediment contamination, natural variability, biodiversity, and growth potential. In particular, we were interested in measuring the direct, indirect, and total effects of sediment contamination and natural variability on biodiversity and growth potential. The model fit the data well and accounted for 81% of the variability in biodiversity and 69% of the variability in growth potential. It revealed a positive total effect of natural variability on growth potential that otherwise would have been judged negative had we not considered indirect effects. That is, natural variability had a negative direct effect on growth potential of magnitude –0.3251 and a positive indirect effect mediated through biodiversity of magnitude 0.4509, yielding a net positive total effect of 0.1258. Natural variability had a positive direct effect on biodiversity of magnitude 0.5347 and a negative indirect effect mediated through growth potential of magnitude –0.1105 yielding a positive total effects of magnitude 0.4242. Sediment contamination had a negative direct effect on biodiversity of magnitude –0.1956 and a negative indirect effect on growth potential via biodiversity of magnitude –0.067. Biodiversity had a positive effect on growth potential of magnitude 0.8432, and growth potential had a positive effect on biodiversity of magnitude 0.3398. The correlation between biodiversity and growth potential was estimated at 0.7658 and that between sediment contamination and natural variability at –0.3769.     

融合多源时空数据的地下水硫酸盐预测模型

准确预测地下水SO₄ ^2-空间变化趋势对改善地下水质量、提高区域地下水管理水平具有重要意义.以2011、2014、2017和2020年叶尔羌河流域平原区土地覆盖数据、土壤参数数据、数字高程数据等多源时空数据和地下水pH值为特征变量,分析其与地下水SO₄ ^2-浓度的相关性,利用贝叶斯优化算法优化随机森林回归,建立BOA-RFR模型,并基于BOA-RFR模型对特征变量进行重要性分析,对模型预测精度进行评价,最后生成地下水SO₄ ^2-预测图.结果表明,pH值、地面高程（GE）和贡献区荒地（BAR）面积占比作为影响地下水水化学组分的重要参数,与地下水SO₄ ^2-浓度均呈现极显著负相关,对地下水SO₄ ^2-浓度预测的重要度均大于25 %;地统计插值方法作为空间分布预测建模的辅助手段,加入辅助样本后的BOA-RFR模型,地下水SO₄ ^2-浓度预测的R²均大于0.96,且多辅助样本构建模型的RMSE和MAE最大值较少样本模型的最小值分别降低了4.7 %和23.8 %;在地下水SO₄ ^2-浓度预测中,高SO₄ ^2-地下水向叶尔羌河流域平原区东北部富集,且面积呈扩张趋势.     

Carbon productivity convergence club and its initial conditions: China’s construction industry

A three-stage method is proposed to study the convergence clubs for the dynamic total factor carbon productivity (DCP) and the initial conditions. The first stage is to measure the DCP that reflects the initial difference. The second stage is to identify the convergence club of DCP. The last stage is to examine the initial factors that may affect the formation of the convergence club. Construction industry data from 30 provinces in mainland China from 2005 to 2016 were adopted to conduct an empirical study. The empirical results showed that (1) the arithmetic mean value of China’s provincial DCP showed an upward trend and the standard deviation showed an expanding trend. (2) There are five convergence clubs, but 13 provinces failed to converge to any club. (3) The higher the degree of construction industry marketization in 2005, the greater the probability that the provinces belong to a club with higher DCP. To improve the DCP, the effective diffusion of low-carbon construction technologies and the market-oriented reform of state-owned construction companies should be promoted. The three-stage method can also be applied to study different industries in different countries or regions.     

改进分光光度法测Ni以规避大量干扰离子

为测定含大量干扰离子的水样中镍的浓度,提出一种改进的分光光度法。即以多种物质的吸光曲线回归方程,将实时测得的水样吸光度分解成多种物质的吸光度,利用多元一次方程进行求解并计算出浓度的方法。新方法在不进行修正时,对含Cr6+干扰的水样Ni2+测定的结果,误差较小。多组分的水样测量吸光度误差较大,通过引入修正系数修正后误差大幅下降。方法中Ni2+、Fe3+的吸光度与显色时间基本无关;而对于Mn2+、Cu2+和Cr6+,显色时间应控制在0.5～2.5 min内或10 min外,以保证测得吸光度值的稳定与准确。对组成不同的含Mn2+和Fe3+水样测得的Ni2+浓度分析,变异系数(CV)4.74%,检出限为0.275 mg/L,精确度和精密度较好。同时,这种规避方法还具有其他作用,可以在分析组分的同时粗略算出含量。     

Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) dissipation in rhizosphere based on molecular structure and effect size

Rhizoremediation is a significant form of bioremediation for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). This study examined the role of molecular structure in determining the rhizosphere effect on PAHs dissipation. Effect size in meta-analysis was employed as activity dataset for building quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models and accumulative effect sizes of 16 PAHs were used for validation of these models. Based on the genetic algorithm combined with partial least square regression, models for comprehensive dataset, Poaceae dataset, and Fabaceae dataset were built. The results showed that information indices, calculated as information content of molecules based on the calculation of equivalence classes from the molecular graph, were the most important molecular structural indices for QSAR models of rhizosphere effect on PAHs dissipation. The QSAR model, based on the molecular structure indices and effect size, has potential to be used in studying and predicting the rhizosphere effect of PAHs dissipation.     

基于线性回归的环境质量评价普适指数公式

阐述了利用遗传算法优化污染损害指数评价模型中参数时的优点和不足,提出采用普适质数公式对污染损害指数评价模型中参数进行线性优化时,可以大幅简化优化过程,便于实际应用.将适用于大气质量评价的普适指数公式与通过GA优化的评价结果进行比对,证实了该公式在线性优化中的可行性.     

Agricultural causes of desertification risk in Minqin, China

This study uses statistical modeling techniques to develop a desertification risk index (RI) for Minqin County, Gansu Province, China. Twenty socio-economic factors were selected and compared with the RI results to explore the spatial and temporal variability of desertification risk in the study area and to identify possible local driving forces behind desertification risk. The explanatory factors were different in 1988, 1992 and 1997, possibly reflecting the role of temporal variation as a contributor to desertification. The average number of sheep per-household was found to be an important indicator of change in desertification risk, while changes in ridge crop planting area explained the distribution of the rate of change in desertification risk in 1988-1992. The results suggests that the RI was useful in expanding the understanding of spatial temporal desertification issues in Minqin County, as well as identifying a current set of agricultural activities related to desertification risk. Further, given the limited nature of consistent data and observations for the area, development of the RI also served to establish a baseline for future investigations into desertification change and the risks such change might pose for the region.