大气污染物综合排放标准的编制技术方法

我国《大气污染综合排放标准》规定了33种大气污染物的排放限值和执行要求。标准提出了一个污染源必须同时遵守最高允许排放浓度;最高允许排放速率和无组织排放监控浓度限值三项限制指标。以众多企业的排放数据和“最佳实用治理技术”为依据制定排放浓度限值;以环境质量要求和全国大部分地区的中性气象条件为依据,经计算后确定排放速率限值;以污染源周界环境空气浓度达到质量标准要求确定无组织排放限值。经过一定范围的调查检验后,表明该标准具有基本适宜的宽严程度。     

吉林省主要河流指定标准功能可达性分析

根据吉林省地方标准规定的河流水域功能类别和1995年水质监测结果,采用水质单项标准指数法,对吉林省主要河流34个国控和省控监测断面的单项指标、全指标、有机污染型指标和重金属污染型指标进行了功能评价。结果表明,仅有6个监测断面满足指定的标准功能要求,符合率仅为17.6％,主要超标污染物是COD_Mn和挥发酚。以COD为控制指标,根据逆推法的河流水环境容量模式,计算了污水达标排放情况下的污水允许排放量,从而对河流控制断面指定的标准功能进行了可达性分析。结果表明,污水达标排放时,河流流量较大、污径比较小的河流可达到指定标准功能要求;而枯水期流量较小、污径比较大的河流很难达到,应实施重点污染物的排放总量控制制度。     

VOCs源强不确定性对臭氧生成及污染防治影响的模拟分析

本文基于三维区域空气质量模式WRF-Chem,通过修改模式化学模块,量化输出过程量和诊断量,提供了一种定量分析挥发性有机化合物(VOCs)源强不确定性对O3生成影响的方法.为无法定量计算VOCs源强导致的臭氧生成率[P(O3)]偏差,以及由此对O3体积分数分布和污染控制相关联的VOCs敏感区和NOx 敏感区分布的误判提供了方法参考.采用标准统计参数对WRF-Chem模式的气象场与污染场模拟性能进行了评估,相关指标均优于前人结果.以INTEX-B(intercontinental chemical transport experiment-phase B)人为源、FINNv1(fire inventory from NCAR version 1)生物质燃烧源和 MEGAN(model of emissions of gases and aerosols from nature)生物源作为基准源,并以卫星观测数据作为约束,对排放源进行改进,评估了源改进前后臭氧生成率[P(O3)]、O3体积分数和O3控制敏感区指标(Ln/Q)的变化情况.仅人为VOCs(AVOCs)源增加68％后,P(O3)模拟峰值增升比例达13％～82％,以北京观测站点为例,P(O3)模拟月均峰值增加42％(22.5×10-9 h-1).对P(03)形成贡献比例最大的主要化学反应是HO2+NO(占比约68％),AVOCs源增加68％后,该反应贡献比例下降至65％.在改进源下,P(O3)普遍增加达到2×10-9～4×10-9h-O3各季节增幅较大的区域均主要集中在京津冀、长三角和珠三角中心城市及周边区域,与我国大型城市区基本都是VOCs敏感区的结论一致.整体而言,VOCs源强改进后,Nox敏感区O3体积分数增加幅度不大,不超过4×10-9,而部分VOCs敏感区增幅超过20 x10-9.VOCs源强的不确定性会影响O3形成过程中Nox和VOCs敏感区的判断,特别是VOCs源强明显低估会夸大VOCs敏感区的范围,从而降低O3调控对策的有效性.     

建设项目环境影响评价中污染物排放总量控制评价方法

本文提出了在建设项目环境影响评价中关于污染物排放总量控制评价所应包含的内容,介绍了清洁生产纳入环评中的方法,确定了在技术经济合理,污染物排放满足环境质量与排放标准前提下的排放总量,并对其合理性论证方法做了介绍,提出总量控制目标实现的对策。     

Density estimation using ranked-set sampling data

The ranked-set sampling (RSS) is applicable in practical problems where the variable of interest for an observed item is costly or time-consuming but the ranking of a set of items according to the variable can be easily done without actual measurement. In the context of RSS, the need for density estimation arises in certain statistical procedures. The density estimation also has its own interest. In this article, we develop a method for the density estimation using RSS data. We derive the properties of the resulted density estimate and compare it with its counterpart in simple random sampling (SRS). It is shown that the density estimate using RSS data provides a better estimate of the density than the usual density estimate using SRS data. The density estimate developed in this article can well serve various purposes in the context of RSS.     

广州市生活用水量变化影响因子浅析

本文就广州市生活用水量日益增长的现象,根据实际情况选取变化幅度较大和影响较显著的４ 个指标,采用１９９２ 年～１９９７ 年的数据对广州市生活用水量变化进行了灰色关联分析,并提出了减缓该市生活用水量的几点建议。     

Effects of climate and land-cover change on the conservation status of gibbons

Species shift their distribution in response to climate and land-cover change, which may result in a spatial mismatch between currently protected areas (PAs) and priority conservation areas (PCAs). We examined the effects of climate and land-cover change on potential range of gibbons and sought to identify PCAs that would conserve them effectively. We collected global gibbon occurrence points and modeled (ecological niche model) their current and potential 2050s ranges under climate-change and different land-cover-change scenarios. We examined change in range and PA coverage between the current and future ranges of each gibbon species. We applied spatial conservation prioritization to identify the top 30% PCAs for each species. We then determined how much of the PCAs are conserved in each country within the global range of gibbons. On average, 31% (SD 22) of each species’ current range was covered in PAs. PA coverage of the current range of 9 species was <30%. Nine species lost on average 46% (SD 29) of their potential range due to climate change. Under climate-change with an optimistic land-cover-change scenario (B1), 12 species lost 39% (SD 28) of their range. In a pessimistic land-cover-change scenario (A2), 15 species lost 36% (SD 28) of their range. Five species lost significantly more range under the A2 scenario than the B1 scenario (p = 0.01, SD 0.01), suggesting that gibbons will benefit from effective management of land cover. PA coverage of future range was <30% for 11 species. On average, 32% (SD 25) of PCAs were covered by PAs. Indonesia contained more species and PCAs and thus has the greatest responsibility for gibbon conservation. Indonesia, India, and Myanmar need to expand their PAs to fulfill their responsibility to gibbon conservation. Our results provide a baseline for global gibbon conservation, particularly for countries lacking gibbon research capacity.     

建立我国生态环境标准体系的初步构想

我国的生态环境标准极其薄弱,建立生态环境标准体系是我国生态环境保护的迫切需要。借鉴我国目前针对污染防治的环境标准体系,提出了我国生态环境标准体系的基本框架,以及生态环境标准制订的原则和重点。     

Occurrence and volatility of several trace elements in pulverized coal boiler

The contents of eight trace elements(Mn, Cr, Pb, As, Se, Zn, Cd, Hg) in raw coal, bottom ash and fly ash were measured in a 220 t/h pulverized coal boiler. Factors affecting distribution of trace elements were investigated, including fly ash diameter, furnace temperature, oxygen content and trace elements‘ characters. One coefficient of Meij was also improved to more directly show element enrichment in combustion products. These elements may be classified into three groups according to their distribution: Group 1. Hg, which is very volatile. Group 2: Pb, Zn, Cd, which are partially volatile. Group 3: Mn, which is hardly volatile. Se may be located between groups 1 and 2. Cr has properties of both group ! and 3. In addition, the smaller diameter of fly ash, the more relative enrichment of trace elements (except Mn). The fly ash showed different adsorption mechanisms of trace elements and the volatilization of trace elements rises with furnace temperature. Relative enrichments of trace elements(except Mn and Cr) in fly ash are larger than that in bottom ash. Low oxygen content can not always improve the volatilization of trace elements. Pb is easier to form chloride than Cd during coal combustion. Trace elements should be classified in accordance with factors.     

结构应力逆向推演模型及其不确定度定量分析

目的 针对现有结构安全在线监测与评估方法存在的短板,结合人工智能方法探索新的解决方案。提出一种基于有限测点应力逆向推演整体结构应力分布的方法,以数据驱动的模式,基于神经网络技术搭建算法模型。方法 以结构有限元仿真数据为基础,运用相关性分析方法,获取代表结构响应特征的有限个测点,利用神经网络方法构建基于有限测点应力推演结构全场应力分布的算法模型。结果 以科学试验平台的连接器结构为对象,开展该算法模型的应用研究,并且对该应用实例下的算法模型开展不确定度分析,推演结果的相对不确定度u95rel为8.6%。结论 该算法模型的推演结果正确反映了结构总体响应特征。从建模过程角度分析,该算法模型的不确定度来源主要包括相关性分析方法、神经网络建模以及模型收敛条件3个方面。