基于ARIMA模型的航空装备事故时序预测

为提高航空装备事故预防的针对性、有效性和主动性,预防和减少事故的发生,降低事故造成的损失,提出一种时序的差分自回归滑动平均(ARIMA)模型。其建模过程先在时间序列基础上辨识一个试用模型,然后加以诊断,并作出必要调整,反复进行辨识、估计、诊断,直至获得较为满意的ARIMA预测模型。在实例验证中,所构建的用来预测美国空军飞行事故万时率的ARIMA模型,能够将预测的平均相对误差控制在7%以内,预测结果总体反映航空装备的实际安全状况。     

鲜切莲藕酶褐变的控制方法

通过单元抑制剂和多元复合抑制剂对鲜切莲藕多酚氧化酶和褐变度的影响研究表明:单元抑制剂L-半胱氨酸、抗坏血酸和柠檬酸均能降低PPO活性和抑制酶褐变;多元复合抑制剂0.3? 0.1? 0.4%L-Cys也能有效控制鲜切莲藕的酶褐变,且多元复合抑制剂的作用比单元抑制剂效果更佳.     

EFFECTS OF WOODY VEGETATION ON SANDY LEVEE INTEGRITY1

he influence of woody vegetation on the reliability of a sandy levee was investigated using field data in seepage and slope stability analyses. Field data were collected from selected sites within a 10-km segment of a channel levee on the Sacramento River near Elkhorn, California. Root architecture and distribution were determined using the profile-wall method in which root cross sections were exposed in the vertical wall of an excavated trench. Transects running both parallel and perpendicular to the crest of the levee were excavated at six sites. Each site was dominated by different plant species: five sites were adjacent to trees or woody shrubs, while one supported only herbaceous growth. Lateral plant roots were primarily restricted to, and modified, the near-surface soil horizons to a depth of approximately 1 meter. Root area ratios (RARs) did not exceed 2.02 percent and generally decreased exponentially with depth. At depths greater than 20 cm, mean RARs for sites dominated by wood species were not significantly different from the mean RAB for the herbaceous site. No open voids clearly attributable to plant roots were observed. Roots reinforced the levee soil and increased shear resistance in a measurable manner. Infinite slope and circular arc stability analyses were performed on the landward and riverward slopes under different hydraulic loading conditions. Infinite slope analyses indicated increasing root area ratio from 0.01 percent to 1 percent increased the factor of safety from less than one to more than seven. Circular arc analyses indicated that even the lower measured root concentrations sufficed to increase safety factors for arcs with maximum depths of about 1 m from less than one to about 1.2. Our findings suggest that allowing woody shrubs and small trees on levees would provide environmental benefits and would enhance structural integrity without the hazards associated with large trees such as wind-throwing.     

Agroecological Implications of the System of Rice Intensification (SRI) in Madagascar

A system of plant, soil, water and nutrient management for irrigated rice developed in Madagascar has been yielding 5, 10, even 15tha^–1 on farmers' fields where previous yields averaged around 2tha^–1. This is achieved using whatever variety of rice the farmer is already using and without having to utilize chemical fertilizer or other purchased inputs. This system, known as SRI, shows that alternative management practices, creating optimal growing conditions for plants, can bring out previously untapped genetic potential. It also shows that the practices farmers have used for centuries may not always be the best in agronomic terms.     

小麦/玉米间作作物根系与根际微环境的交互作用

通过根箱模拟试验和水培试验,测定小麦/玉米间作条件下根系的分布与根际养分的含量,初步探讨了间作对作物根系分泌有机酸的影响。结果表明,间作显著提高了各层土壤中小麦根的重量,同时提高了小麦、玉米的根系数量和地上部生物量,使生长前期根系大小发生较大变化,而对根系活力影响较小。间作使玉米根际土速效N含量增加,速效P、K含量降低;使小麦根际土N含量降低,P、K含量提高。小麦与玉米间作以后,根系分泌有机酸的种类明显增加;而植株体内和根系中有机酸的种类和数量却有所降低。     

锌铬复合污染对水稻根系可溶性糖代谢的影响

植物具有逐步适应逆境的能力,在不同生育期对逆境的适应程度不同。可溶性糖是植物碳代谢的主要物质之一,与植物的抗性有密切关系。通过盆栽试验,研究了锌铬复合污染下,在水稻(Oryza sativa L.)不同生育期,水稻根系可溶性糖的代谢。结果表明,随着土壤中锌、铬质量分数的增加,在水稻不同生育期,其根干质量及地上部分干质量均呈降低的趋势,而根冠比呈现一定的升高趋势;水稻根系可溶性糖含量呈升高的趋势。偏相关分析表明,在水稻不同生育期,土壤中锌、铬质量分数与水稻根系可溶性糖含量均呈显著或极显著的偏相关关系。锌在水稻孕穗期及灌浆结实期对水稻根系可溶性糖含量的作用均大于铬,在分蘖期小于铬。这表明在重金属胁迫下,水稻通过增加其根系中可溶性糖含量来协调源流库的关系,从而提高自身对锌铬复合污染的生态适应能力。     

根系及其主要影响因子在森林演替过程中的变化

统计分析了国内外主要森林生态系统演替过程中根系生物量及其分布的变化，并探讨了相关的影响因子及其动态。结果发现，根系生物量随林龄和演替的进行而增加，演替群落的根冠比呈减小趋势。一般来说，根系的垂直分布是较浅的，尤其是细根。根系分布范围与地下部生态位的变化能够反映其可以利用的资源范围以及它在演替过程中的作用和地位。在森林演替初期，群落根系分布较浅，可塑性强，且水平根系发达；演替中期的根系呈镶嵌分布，分布范围加深，根系密度增加；演替后期的根系分布趋于稳定，地下生态位分离程度加剧，根系结构具有相对明显的分层。在演替过程中，根系的这种分布特征受自身条件和生态因子的影响，文章论证了这些影响因子本身在演替过程中也是动态变化的，进一步说明了根系分布动态规律存在的必然性。在演替过程中，根系生物量及其分布动态的研究，可以为森林群落动态学提供新的理论基础，是未来地下生态学研究的焦点之一。最后，分析了根系研究中亟待解决的问题和今后的发展重点，提出新的展望。     

一株降低烟草中特有亚硝胺细菌的分离鉴定及特性研究

从白肋烟TRM品种叶片中分离得到一株能降低白肋烟烟草中特有的亚硝胺(TSNA)含量的内生细菌菌株,该菌株能还原硝酸盐和亚硝酸盐.通过形态、生理生化特性分析以及16SrDNA序列进行同源比较,鉴定该菌株为根瘤土壤杆菌属,定名为Agrobaterium tumefaciens.该菌株最佳生长温度为25～30℃,最佳培养基为TSB,最适pH值为7.0～8.0.在采收前一天,对白肋烟品种TN86进行菌株喷洒处理;检测晾制期间TSNA、硝酸盐、亚硝酸盐含量变化.结果表明,在晾制前期,TSNA含量比较低且变化幅度较小;晾制30d时,TSNA含量达到最大;在晾制末期,喷洒菌株处理的烟叶中TSNA含量有明显的降低,比同一时期对照烟叶中TSNA含量降低了81.3%;常规化学成分及烟叶感官质量与对照相似,都达到了优级白肋烟标准.通过分析该菌株对硝酸盐、亚硝酸盐及TSNA的影响,推测该菌株可能通过还原亚硝酸盐,使亚硝酸盐含量减少,从而降低了TSNA的形成.     

冬小麦根系生长与土壤水分利用方式相互关系分析

１９９５～１９９６年在中国科学院栾城农业生态系统联合站布置了冬小麦水分试验，在土壤连续干旱条件下考察了冬小麦返青至成熟阶段根系生长和土壤水分利用方式。给出并验证了可用于分析二者相互关系的定量模型。根据以下两点分析了作物利用土壤水分特征：①将土壤含水量开始降低时间视为吸水峰到达某一深度时间；②吸水峰下达到某一土层后，土壤含水量即随生育进程以指数形式逐渐降低。愈接近地表的土层，根系分布量愈大，根系日增长率在抽穗期最大，至扬花期根量及根深达最大值，根系吸水范围和深度基本取决于营养阶段根系生长发育状况。返青时，根系已下扎到１ｍ，根系生长峰与吸水峰基本同步下移，根系下扎到某一土层后继续生长发育，直至土壤有效含水量只剩４０％～２０％时为止。根系下扎虽深达１８０ｃｍ，而且下层根系吸水功能较强，有效水量较大，但终因根系分布量太少，致使作物利用水分的土层深度只达１２０ｃｍ，吸收的水量大多来自０～６０ｃｍ土层。在土壤连续干旱条件下，土壤水分不足亦是制约根系吸水功能的一个重要因素。在作物利用土壤水分初期，根系吸水速率最大，随着土壤含水量逐渐减少，根系吸水速率随之降低。土壤中有效含水量比例在０８以上，根系吸水速率大致以线性关系大     

Rapid evaluation of arsenic contamination in paddy soils using field portable X-ray fluorescence spectrometry

Arsenic (As) in paddy fields is deteriorating food security and human health through rice ingestion. Rice is the dominant food source of arsenic exposure to half of the world''s population. Therefore, an in situ effective method for As risk evaluation in paddy soil is strongly needed to avoid As exposure through rice ingestion. Herein, we developed a rapid analytical methodology for determination of As in plant tissues using field portable X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (FP-XRF). This method was applied to rice roots in order to evaluate the As contamination in paddy soils. The results showed that rice roots with iron plaques were superior to rhizosphere soils for generating FP-XRF signals, especially for field sites with As concentrations lower than the soil detection limit of FP-XRF (30.0 mg/kg). Moreover, the strong linear relationships of As concentrations between the rice roots and corresponding leaves and grains proved that the rice root, rather than the soil, is a better predictor of As concentrations in rice grains. The research provides an efficient As monitoring method for As contaminated paddy fields by using wetland plant roots with iron plaques and XRF-based analytical techniques.