磷化工企业清洁生产评价指标体系的构建

根据对磷化工企业的全面调查,结合清沽生产评价指标体系编制规定,运用层次分析法建立了由定量和定性两部分评价指标构成的磷化工企业递阶层次结构清洁生产评价指标体系,并确定了评价指标体系准则层、指标层各定量指标权重值和定性评价指标分值.应用已建立的评价指标体系,对某磷化工企业进行了实例评价,结果表明该评价指标体系能较好地反应磷化工企业的清洁生产水平.     

环保投资增长规律及其模型研究

本文从国内外环保投资的实践入手,分析和总结出环保投资长期增长规律,并依据环境－经济－社会的技术经济关系,建立起“污染平衡方程式”,从理论上对该规律进行了证明,这样旨在为环保投资决策 参考依据,使其科学化和合理化,从而促进环境与经济的协调发展,保证我国可持续发展战略的顺利实施。     

UNCERTAINTY BASED OPERATION OF LARGE SCALE RESERVOIR SYSTEMS: DEZ AND KAROON EXPERIENCE1

ABSTRACT: Reservoir operation involves a complex set of human decisions depending upon hydrologic conditions in the supply network including watersheds, lakes, transfer tunnels, and rivers. Water releases from reservoirs are adjusted in an attempt to provide a balanced response to different demands. When a system involves more than one reservoir, computational burdens have been a major obstacle in incorporating uncertainties and variations in supply and demand. A new generation of stochastic dynamic programming was developed in the 1980s and 1990s to incorporate the forecast and demand uncertainties. The Bayesian Stochastic Dynamic Programming (BSDP) model and its extension, Demand Driven Stochastic Dynamic Programming (DDSP) model, are among those models. Recently, a Fuzzy Stochastic Dynamic Programming model (FSDP) also was developed for a single reservoir to model the errors associated with discretizing the variables using fuzzy set theory. In this study the DDSP and the FSDP models were extended and simplified for a complex system of Dez and Karoon reservoirs in the southwestern part of Iran. The simplified models are called Condensed Demand Driven Stochastic Programming (CDDSP) and Condensed Fuzzy Stochastic Dynamic Programming (CFSDP). The optimal operating policies developed by the CDDSP and the CFSDP models were simulated in a classical model and a fuzzy simulation model, respectively. The case study was used to demonstrate the advantages of implementing the proposed algorithm, and the results show the significant value of the proposed fuzzy based algorithm.     

109国道宁夏石中段交通事故特性及成因分析

搜集了平原微丘区二级公路109国道宁夏石中段2001—2003年间的道路交通事故资料,分析其交通事故的时间分布、空间分布、肇事驾驶员等分布规律。研究表明:早晚交通高峰小时过后是交通事故高发时段,交通事故月分布规律受季节影响较大,路段交通事故形态中以尾随相撞类事故居多,发生于路段的交通事故数高于交叉口处的交通事故数,驾龄小于4年和年龄18～25岁的驾驶员最容易造成交通事故。进而提出加强交通管理,增设减速震动线等交通安全设施降低主线车速,加强易发交通事故的驾驶员人群的后期培训和教育等防控措施。以期有助于缓解我国二级公路严峻的交通安全形势,增强交通事故预防的科学性。     

烟台市土壤有机氯农药分布及迁移规律

通过对山东省烟台市生态地球化学资料的系统整理,研究土壤持久性有机污染现状与分布迁移规律。结果表明,小麦和水样中没有检出HCH、DDT及衍生物,相对1980年降幅最大,说明在小麦种植区较好地执行了禁用HCH、DDT的政策;土壤中仍检出有HCH、DDT及衍生物,DDT及其衍生物检出样品占样品总数的34.59%,HCH及其异构体检出占土壤样品总数的0.015%;表层土壤中HCH残留量由70年代的0.282μg/g降至0.151μg/g,相差近2倍;DDT由0.3872μg/g降至0.346μg/g。DDT残留物主要集中在表层土壤中,20～40cm的土层中残留量已明显降低,40～60cm的土层中残留量未检出,揭示了有机氯农药的水溶性很差,容易被土壤颗粒所吸附,在土壤环境中的移动性很弱,因而难以向深层土壤迁移的规律。同时表层土壤中约有612km2控制面积内(p,p′-DDE+p,p′-DDD)/p,p′-DDT的比值小于1,说明可能存在新的DDT污染源输入,土壤持久性有机污染成为烟台生态环境质量问题之一,为土地污染防治提供了科学依据。     

Association analysis of accident factors in petrochemical storage tank farms

In order to identify and clarify the association between the factors leading to accidents in a petrochemical tank area, this study analyzes investigation reports of 212 petrochemical tank farm accidents and combines this with the “association rule” mining and science related to complex networks. The main risk factors are determined and a risk factor data set is constructed; 75 association rules are extracted from the factor data set based on the Apriori algorithm. Then the obtained association rules are used to construct an accident factors network of the petrochemical storage tank area, and the topology characteristics of the network are further analyzed to reveal the importance of factors. Factors with large node degree, betweenness, and clustering coefficients are obtained, such as “violation of operating regulations”, “high concentration of flammable gas in the air”, “lack of experience and professional skills”, etc. These factors play an important role in the formation and development of accidents. The results also show that the accident cause network of the petrochemical storage tank area has a small average shortest path length and a large cluster coefficient, indicating a relatively close connection between the accident factors. The contributions of this study is not only extracting the hidden relationships among contributory factors to tank farm accidents using association analysis, but also revealing which factors are more important for the tank farm safety through the complex network.     

2004—2008年我国隧道施工事故统计分析

为了解我国隧道施工事故的发生规律,采用柱状图和事故发生趋势图等方法对2004—2008年隧道施工事故进行统计与分析,获得了事故次数与死亡人数的年度分布和发展趋势、不同事故类型发生事故次数、事故类型占总事故数百分比、地区分布、事故等级分布等统计特征。找出2004—2008年隧道施工事故的发生规律:事故次数和死亡人数均呈下降趋势;事故类型以坍塌、物体打击、透水、冒顶片帮为主,其中坍塌是隧道施工过程中的第一要害;事故主要集中在中西部地区,东部地区则很少;多数事故为较大事故,发生重大和特别重大事故较少,但多为恶性事故。同时根据隧道施工事故发生规律,提出隧道施工安全管理的对策与建议。     

电镀锌镍合金与热渗锌涂层热带海洋大气环境腐蚀规律对比分析

目的 解决钢铁表面金属涂层在热带海洋大气环境中易腐蚀损伤或失效的问题,选择对热带海洋大气环境耐腐蚀性能优良的金属涂层,提高钢铁工件的使用寿命。方法 在某热带海域进行户外暴露试验,对钢铁试片电镀锌镍合金和热渗锌2种金属涂层的腐蚀规律进行研究。通过扫描电镜、X射线能谱仪、光学显微镜、划格试验等,对锌镍合金镀层和热渗锌涂层的表面形貌、化学成分、截面形貌、涂层厚度及附着力等分别进行观察与测试。结果 电镀锌镍合金镀层主要发生选择性腐蚀和点蚀,在720d内具有较好的腐蚀防护性能。热渗锌层以均匀腐蚀为主,涂层微裂纹促进了腐蚀,在90 d内基体无腐蚀,360～720 d涂层的腐蚀速率较快。结论 在采用的2种金属涂层工艺中,电镀锌镍合金镀层的耐腐蚀性能远优于热渗锌涂层。相对于该热渗锌涂层,电镀锌镍合金镀层更加适合作为钢铁工件金属涂层在该海域大气环境中长期使用。     

居室装修后空气中甲醛、三苯释放规律及防治对策

对装修后居室中的甲醛、三苯释放浓度进行了监测分析,找出了甲醛、三苯的释放规律,提出装修后的居室应注意通风,保持空气流畅,停留一段时间再入住等对策,以避免室内甲醛、三苯释放,危害人体健康。     

国内外农用地膜使用政策、执行标准与回收状况

农用地膜覆盖技术具有良好的增温、保墒、除草等作用,已成为中国农业生产上不可或缺的农艺措施,为作物增产增收和保障中国粮食安全做出了巨大贡献。由于长期重使用、轻回收,随着农用地膜的用量和覆膜年限增加,废旧地膜在土壤中的残留量逐年增多,残膜污染已严重影响农业生产和自然环境,成为影响中国农业可持续发展的突出问题。中国的农用地膜污染防治工作总体起步较晚,虽然取得了一定成效,但还面临着政策不健全,监管有难度,执行不到位,回收、替代技术不成熟等困难和问题,防治任务依然艰巨。文章通过深入分析欧美与日本发达国家农用地膜推广使用方面的相关政策及标准,总结归纳了国内外农用地膜管理和回收经验,为今后制定出台适应中国国情的农用地膜管理政策提供参考。建议:(1)推进全程监管,出台相关法律规章,明确生产、流通、使用等各环节的监管责任,建立全程监管体系,从源头上杜绝脱标地膜进入市场、铺进农田;(2)推进源头减量,开展地膜覆盖技术适宜性评价,强化地膜使用控制,对水热资源条件较好的地区,减少地膜覆盖或不再使用地膜,对资源禀赋较差的地区,提高地膜使用效率,降低使用强度;(3)推进回收利用,推动完善政府扶持、市场主导的农膜回收利用体系,探索农膜回收利用长效机制,推动建立区域性绿色补贴政策;(4)推进技术创新,依托科技平台,加大新产品、新设备的研发力度,加强可降解地膜产品和技术跟踪,制定完善评价标准体系。