AN APPLICATION OF INVESTMENT TIMING ANALYSIS: DUAL WATER SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: A general methodology to study the economics of dual water systems (defined here as a separate distribution system for untreated low quality local surface Water for outdoor municipal water supply) is summarized and the application of the method to a rapidly growing city is presented. In the first step, a cost-benefit criterion for evaluating dual systems is developed. The criterion is then extended to a dynamic case where the population to be served increases with time and where the dual system is allowed to expand. The optimal investment time to introduce the dual water supply project is obtained by maximizing social welfare. The model is applied to the city of West Jordan, Utah, where a dual system is currently being proposed. Model results indicate that for the city as a whole dual supply is not economically feasible. However, when the model is applied to a part of the city, it is found feasible and the optimal time to initiate the project would be in the year 1989.     

CHANGES IN WATER POLICY IN THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA1

ABSTRACT: Ideology has predisposed the People's Republic of China against the use of prices to allocate water. Prolonged drought in north China has made the Chinese more aware of their unfavorable water resource inventory and the expense of expanding supply. Therefore, as part of the economic liberalization commenced since the death of Mao Zedong, China has started to make more active use of pricing to regulate demand and reduce the need for supply expansion.     

碳中和愿景下电力部门低碳转型路径研究

碳中和愿景一方面加速了全社会电气化发展,致使电力需求持续增加,另一方面对尽早实现零碳电力提出要求,电力部门低碳转型进程更加紧迫而复杂。本文首先定性分析碳中和背景下电力部门的总体转型思路和技术不确定性影响,其次采用电力部门与终端部门耦合的C~3IAM/NET模型对电力需求进行预测,同时根据关键低碳技术发展的保守预期和积极预期设计多种情景,以开展电力低碳转型路径优化和成本效益研究。结果显示,发电碳排放量峰值可能出现在40亿～42亿吨,在2049—2060年有望实现零碳电力,电力部门低碳转型速度和效果因技术不确定性而存在明显差异。2021—2060年电力低碳转型累计投入为171万亿～180万亿元,CCS技术累计减排贡献超过250亿吨,可再生能源电力占比需达到68%以上,风电和光电将成为主要电力。     

Lowest Effect Levels of Lead and Mercury on Decomposition of Mor Layer Samples in a Long-Term Experiment

Indications of possible negative effects of lead (Pb) and mercury(Hg) on microbial respiration in Southern Swedish forest humus layers led to experiments on dose-response relationships by additions of metal salts in the laboratory. Respiration rates andweight loss due to decomposition of organic material were measured. For relevance to field situations metal doses were low,the time span was long, 550 days including freeze storage, and microbial activity was kept up by plant litter additions. We looked for effects of Pb and Hg at levels moderately elevated above the Southern Swedish reference, as well as combined effectsof Pb + Hg. A reduction in respiration and decomposition of10% was found at about 225–245 g g^-1 of total Pb, i.e. ata Pb level elevated 3.5 times. Although small effects of Hg werefound even at the lowest dose level, 10% inhibition of microbialactivity appeared temporarily at about 2–3 g g^-1 of total Hg, i. e. at 6–8 times the reference level. There were nolong-term additive effects of Pb and Hg on decomposition. Type of anion had a strong influence on the test, chlorides of Pbbeing more toxic than nitrates. Long-term monitoring and maintenance of microbial activity during the experiment were prerequisites for the occurrence of effects at low metal levels.     

Interpreting dynamics of aquatic resources: A perspective for resource managers

Since the presentation of the Leopold Report (Leopold et al. 1963) to the United States Secretary of the Interior, recommendations in the document for managing natural park resources on the ecosystem level have been included in the management policies of the National Park Service. In many instances, however, management programs have continued to focus on individual resource problems, without apparent concern for the ecological consequences on ecosystems. Without knowledge of the interrelationships of ecosystem components, solving one problem may result in other resource problems. Graphic approaches are presented as potential tools to view these complex interrelationships relative to the needs of the resource manager. Interpreting the dynamics of aquatic systems is emphasized.     

COMPARISON OF METHODS TO ESTIMATE DEEP PERCOLATION RATES1

ABSTRACT: Deep percolation rates are normally estimated from a water balance. Results are presented of a study undertaken to evaluate three alternative methods of estimating percolation below the root zone when knowledge about the history of applied water and evapotranspiration are not available. The alternative methods are: 1) use of Darcy's equation to calculate deep percolation rate; 2) measurement of the soil temperature prof and calculation of the deep percolation rate from the shape of the temperature depth curve; and 3) measurement of the tritium concentration in the soil water and its relationship to the history of the tritium concentration in rainfall. At the principal study site, the Darcy velocity of flow ranged from 9 cm per year determined by the temperature method, to 40 cm per year determined by the tritium method. Darcy's equation to calculate seepage rates resulted in an estimation of deep seepage of 18 cm per year. An average deep percolation rate at the principal study site of 22 cm per year was determined using the average of all three methods. Results for other sites based on the temperature method indicated a lower seepage rate.     

Combining geodiversity with climate and topography to account for threatened species richness

Understanding threatened species diversity is important for long‐term conservation planning. Geodiversity—the diversity of Earth surface materials, forms, and processes—may be a useful biodiversity surrogate for conservation and have conservation value itself. Geodiversity and species richness relationships have been demonstrated; establishing whether geodiversity relates to threatened species’ diversity and distribution pattern is a logical next step for conservation. We used 4 geodiversity variables (rock‐type and soil‐type richness, geomorphological diversity, and hydrological feature diversity) and 4 climatic and topographic variables to model threatened species diversity across 31 of Finland's national parks. We also analyzed rarity‐weighted richness (a measure of site complementarity) of threatened vascular plants, fungi, bryophytes, and all species combined. Our 1‐km² resolution data set included 271 threatened species from 16 major taxa. We modeled threatened species richness (raw and rarity weighted) with boosted regression trees. Climatic variables, especially the annual temperature sum above 5 °C, dominated our models, which is consistent with the critical role of temperature in this boreal environment. Geodiversity added significant explanatory power. High geodiversity values were consistently associated with high threatened species richness across taxa. The combined effect of geodiversity variables was even more pronounced in the rarity‐weighted richness analyses (except for fungi) than in those for species richness. Geodiversity measures correlated most strongly with species richness (raw and rarity weighted) of threatened vascular plants and bryophytes and were weakest for molluscs, lichens, and mammals. Although simple measures of topography improve biodiversity modeling, our results suggest that geodiversity data relating to geology, landforms, and hydrology are also worth including. This reinforces recent arguments that conserving nature's stage is an important principle in conservation.     

Increase in Hair Lead, but not Blood Lead Content of Occupationally-Exposed Workers

This study attempted to investigate whether increased hair lead concentrations due to environmental exposure are accompanied by parallel increases in blood lead concentrations. A sample set consisting of both occupationally-exposed individuals and persons from the general population was investigated. The lead content of scalp and pubic hair from the general population (n=189), traffic police personnel (n=27) and battery workers (n=22) were analysed. The hair samples were taken from the nape of the neck by cutting 23 cm closest to the scalp and cleaned using a washing procedure developed in our laboratory. The effectiveness of the washing procedure was partly determined by examining the scanning electron micrographs of the hair samples. Venous samples of blood were taken from each volunteer's arm.The traffic police and battery plant operators sampled had significantly higher average scalp hair and pubic hair lead levels than the non occupationally-exposed general population. No significant differences were found between the blood lead values of these workers and the general population. Compared to the general population both occupationally-exposed groups had significantly more symptoms of lead toxicity.Lead particles were still observed on the hair shafts after the washing procedure. The amount of such lead contamination was difficult to quantify, the problem being further exacerbated by the difference in hair texture of the persons sampled. This exogenous contamination therefore detracts from the usefulness of hair as an indicator of lead exposure.