Integration of Case Studies on Global Change by Means of Qualitative Differential Equations

We present a novel methodology to integrate qualitative knowledge from different case studies on Global Change related issues into a single framework. The method is based on the concept of qualitative differential equations (QDEs) which represents a mathematically well-defined approach to investigate classes of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) used in conventional modeling exercises. These classes are defined by common qualitative features, e.g., monotonicity, signs, etc. Using the QSIM-algorithm it is possible to derive the set of possible solutions of all ODEs in the class. By this one can formulate a common, qualitatively specified cause–effect scheme valid for all case studies. The scheme is validated by testing it against the actually observed histories in the study regions with respect to their reconstruction by the corresponding QDE. The method is outlined theoretically and exemplary applied to the problem of land-use changes due to smallholder agriculture in developing countries. It is shown that the seven case-studies used can be described by a single cause–effect scheme which thus constitutes a pattern of Global Change. As a generally valid prerequisite for sustainability of this kind of land-use the presence of wage labor is shown to represent a decisive factor. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A holistic approach towards assessment of severity of land degradation along the Great Wall in northern Shaanxi Province,China

The farming and grazing interlocked transitional zone along theGreat Wall in northern Shaanxi Province is particularly vulnerable to desertification due to its fragile ecosystem and intensive human activity. Studies reveal that desertification isboth a natural and anthropogenic process. Four desertificationindicators (vegetative cover, proportion of drifting sand area, desertification rate, and population pressure) were used to assess the severity of desertification in a GIS. The first threefactors were derived from multitemporal remote sensing and landinventory data. The last factor was calculated from census data.It was found that the overall severity of land degradation in thestudy area has worsened during the last two decades with severely, highly and moderately degraded land accounting for 84.2% of the total area in 1998. While the area affected by desertification has increased, the rate of desertification has also accelerated from 0.74 to 0.87%. Risk of land degradation in the study area has increased, on an average, by 155% since 1985. Incorporation of both natural and anthropogenic factors inthe analysis provides realistic assessment of risk of desertification.     

Impervious Surface Area as a Predictor of the Effects of Urbanization on Stream Insect Communities in Maine, U.S.A.

The influence of urbanization on stream insect communities was determined by comparing physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of streams draining 20 catchments with varyinglevels of urban land-cover in Maine (U.S.A). Percent total impervious surface area (PTIA), which was used to quantify urbanland-use, ranged from 1–31% among the study catchments.Taxonomic richness of stream insect communities showed an abruptdecline as PTIA increased above 6%. Streams draining catchmentswith PTIA < 6% had the highest levels of both total insect and EPT (Ephemeroptera + Plecoptera + Trichoptera) taxonomic richness. These streams contained insect communities with a totalrichness averaging 33 taxa in fall and 31 taxa in spring; EPT richness ranged from an average of 15 taxa in fall and 13 taxa inspring. In contrast, none of the streams draining catchments with6–27% PTIA had a total richness > 18 taxa or an EPT richness> 6 taxa. Insect communities in streams with PTIA > 6% were characterized by the absence of pollution-intolerant taxa. The distribution of more pollution-tolerant taxa (e.g.Acerpenna (Ephemeroptera); Paracapnia, Allocapnia (Plecoptera); Optioservus, Stenelmis (Coleoptera); Hydropsyche, Cheumatopsyche (Trichoptera)), however, showed little relation to PTIA. In contrast to the apparent threshold relationship between PTIA and insect taxonomic richness, both habitat qualityand water quality tended to decline as linear functions of PTIA.Our results indicate that, in Maine, an abrupt change in stream insect community structure occurs at a PTIA above a threshold ofapproximately 6% of total catchment area. The measurement of PTIA may provide a valuable tool for predicting thresholds for adverse effects of urbanization on the health of headwater streams in Maine.     

Spatial based compromise programming for multiple criteria decision making in land use planning

Today, competing land use is continuing to occur in many developed regions. In the Agricultural Development Zone of Western Sydney Region, which is characterised by complex landscape patterns, land use competition is widespread. From a land use planning perspective, identification of suitable locations for a given type of land use is necessary for decision makers to formulate land use alternatives in different locations, based on existing land potential and constraints. For such a region, use of a simple method that implements a categorical system and considers only inherent land characteristics in the analysis is often inadequate to arrive at an optimal spatial decision. The primary aim of this paper is to develop spatial modelling procedures for agricultural land suitability analysis using compromise programming (CoPr) and fuzzy set approach within a geographical information systems (GIS) environment. Five main sets of spatial data for use as decision criteria were developed by using fuzzy set methodology: a land suitability index (LSI) for maximising the land productivity objective; an erosion tolerance index (ETI) for minimising the erosion risk objective; a runoff curve number (CN) for maximising the water discharge regulation objective; an accessibility (RP) measure for maximising the land accessibility objective; and the proximity to water body (WP) for minimising the water pollution objective. An L _p -metric was used in the analysis utilising different strategies with representative indices ranging from a situation where full tradeoff among criteria occurs to a noncompensatory condition. Different weighting combinations were also applied, and decision analysis was carried out by using values ranging from 0 to 1.0, where 1.0 is considered as an ideal point. The CoPr model demonstrated in this paper yielded a promising result, as several different techniques of sensitivity analysis show reasonably good results. Likewise, an overlay of that result with the present land use/land cover indicates a good corresponding spatial matching between existing land use (orchard and cultivated land), and the cells (land parcels) classified as the best in CoPr. The results are amenable to various map display techniques, either using continuous values or by defining different cut off points in the data space within a raster GIS environment.     

Spatial Relationships Between Water Quality and Pesticide Application Rates in Agricultural Watersheds

Pesticide applications to agricultural lands in California, USA, are reported to a central data base, while data on water and sediment quality are collected by a number of monitoring programs. Data from both sources are geo-referenced, allowing spatial analysis of relationships between pesticide application rates and the chemical and biological condition of water bodies. This study collected data from 12 watersheds, selected to represent a range of pesticide usage. Water quality parameters were measured during six surveys of stream sites receiving runoff from the selected watershed areas. This study had three objectives: to evaluate the usefulness of pesticide application data in selecting regional monitoring sites, to provide information for generating and testing hypotheses about pesticide fate and effects, and to determine whether in-stream nitrate concentration was a useful surrogate indicator for regional monitoring of toxic substances. Significant correlations were observed between pesticide application rates and in-stream pesticide concentrations (p < 0.05) and toxicity (p < 0.10). In-stream nitrate concentrations were not significantly correlated with either the amount of pesticides applied, in-stream pesticide concentrations, or in-stream toxicity (all p > 0.30). Neither total watershed area nor the area in which pesticide usage was reported correlated significantly with the amount of pesticides applied, in-stream pesticide concentrations, or in-stream toxicity (all p > 0.14). In-stream pesticide concentrations and effects were more closely related to the intensity of pesticide use than to the area under cultivation.     

Saturated and Unsaturated Water Flow in Inclined Porous Media

This paper considers the two-dimensional saturated and unsaturated flow of water through inclined porous media, namely a waste dump or hill slope. Since the partial differential equation governing this water flow transforms from being parabolic to elliptic as the water flow varies from unsaturated to saturated, an iterative, finite differencing scheme is used to develop a numerical solution. The model can be used to investigate the effects that hill slope angle, depth of soil cover and hilltop width have on water accumulation in the dump and the time required for saturation to occur at different areas in the dump domain. The accuracy and reliability of the computer based solution is tested for two different boundary conditions – (1) no flow on all boundaries (i.e., the internal redistribution of soil moisture to steady state) and (2) a constant rainfall flux on the dump surface. Numerical studies then show the effects of changing the hill slope angle, depth of layer, and dump geometry on the flow characteristics in the dump.     

玉溪市中心城区土地利用布局及其优化研究

本文系统分析了玉溪市中心城区土地利用强度、土地利用效率、土地利用结构的现状 ,研究了玉溪市中心城区土地利用优化对策 ,探索在城市总体布局中 ,如何充分利用地形特点 ,从可持续发展的角度出发 ,创造舒适宜人的城市生态环境空间。     

兖州矿区采煤塌陷地状况与综合治理途径研究

通过对兖州矿区采煤塌陷地状况进行现状分析和趋势预测,结果表明,至2000年底,已累计塌陷土地5389.40hm2;预计到21世纪中叶,兖州、济东2个煤田最终将形成两个塌陷中心,面积达4.4×104hm2。这不仅使大面积农田被毁,造成生态失衡,而且给当地工农业生产以及社会和生态环境等方面带来一系列严重问题,应该彻底进行采煤塌陷地的综合治理。据此,根据矿区工农业持续协调发展的需要,从宏观和微观的角度,全方位提出了采煤塌陷地的综合治理途径。     

东北平原西部沙地的气候变异与土地荒漠化

东北平原西部沙地位于欧亚大陆中纬度巨型沙带的东部边缘 ,为我国荒漠化土地的东缘。随着经济的发展 ,生态环境遭到严重破坏 ,荒漠化景观日益明显 ,前景令人堪忧。气候因素是荒漠化发展的一个基本因素 ,东北平原西部沙地是我国北方气候条件最好的沙区 ,但目前对于区域荒漠化驱动因子的气候因素影响方面的研究未开展系统的工作。论文系统分析了东北平原西部沙地影响荒漠化的现代气候因素特点 ,探讨了在较好气候条件下气候变异、人类活动与荒漠化之间的关系 ,并根据气候发展趋势预测了未来在自然因素作用下沙地的可能发展趋势。     

黄土残塬沟壑区土地开发适宜性评价方法研究

以发展经济为准绳，利用生物措施，开发土地资源，是有效地控制和改善黄土残塬沟壑区日益恶化的生态环境的根本保证。本文针对如何合理地利用农作物、果树、林木和牧草开发土地资源问题，提出了土地开发的适宜性评价方法，并以土地调查的小斑为单元，选用了原土地利用类型、坡度、坡向和海拔高程４个指标，对地处这一地区且作为国家＂八五＂重点攻关项目的隰县试验区的土地开发适宜性进行了评价，经初步开发实施，已收到了显著效果。