MODELING THE DISTRIBUTION OF DIFFUSE NITROGEN SOURCES AND SINKS IN THE NEUSE RIVER BASIN OF NORTH CAROLINA,USA1

This study quantified nonpoint source nitrogen (NPS‐N) sources and sinks across the 14,582 km² Neuse River Basin (NRB) located in North Carolina, to provide tabular data summaries and graphic overlay products to support the development of management approaches to best achieve established N reduction goals. First, a remote sensor derived, land cover classification was performed to support modeling needs. Modeling efforts included the development of a mass balance model to quantify potential N sources and sinks, followed by a precipitation event driven hydrologic model to effectively transport excess N across the landscape to individual stream reaches to support subsequent labeling of transported N values corresponding to source origin. Results indicated that agricultural land contributed 55 percent of the total annual NPS‐N loadings, followed by forested land at 23 percent (background), and urban areas at 21 percent. Average annual N source contributions were quantified for agricultural (1.4 kg/ha), urban (1.2 kg/ha), and forested cover types (0.5 kg/ha). Nonpoint source‐N contributions were greatest during the winter (40 percent), followed by spring (32 percent), summer (28 percent), and fall (0.3 percent). Seasonal total N loadings shifted from urban dominated and forest dominated sources during the winter, to agricultural sources in the spring and summer. A quantitative assessment of the significant NRB land use activities indicated that high (greater than 70 percent impervious) and medium (greater than 35 percent impervious) density urban development were the greatest contributors of NPS‐N on a unit area basis (1.9 and 1.6 kg/ha/yr, respectively), followed by row crops and pasture/hay cover types (1.4 kg/ha/yr).     

PREDICTING FECAL COLIFORM BACTERIA LEVELS IN THE CHARLES RIVER,MASSACHUSETTS, USA1

In Massachusetts, the Charles River Watershed Association conducts a regular water quality monitoring and public notification program in the Charles River Basin during the recreational season to inform users of the river's health. This program has relied on laboratory analyses of river samples for fecal coliform bacteria levels, however, results are not available until at least 24 hours after sampling. To avoid the need for laboratory analyses, ordinary least squares (OLS) and logistic regression models were developed to predict fecal coliform bacteria concentrations and the probabilities of exceeding the Massachusetts secondary contact recreation standard for bacteria based on meteorological conditions and streamflow. The OLS models resulted in adjusted R²s ranging from 50 to 60 percent. An uncertainty analysis reveals that of the total variability of fecal coliform bacteria concentrations, 45 percent is explained by the OLS regression model, 15 percent is explained by both measurement and space sampling error, and 40 percent is explained by time sampling error. Higher accuracy in future bacteria forecasting models would likely result from reductions in laboratory measurement errors and improved sampling designs.     

不同环境体系下锂离子电池热失控特性实验研究

针对锂离子电池热失控引发的航空运输安全问题,自主设计并搭建锂离子电池热失控灾害演化及危险性分析实验平台。在敞开和密封环境体系下,对电加热触发荷电量(State of Charge,SOC)为0%、50%和100%的18650型锂离子电池热失控规律进行了实验研究。观察单体锂离子电池在敞开和密封体系中的热失控现象,并记录单体锂离子电池热失控时间、温度峰值及相应的温度变化。数据结果显示,相比敞开体系,密封体系有效的延缓了锂离子电池发生热失控的时间,并降低了锂离子热失控时释放的能量,为锂离子电池的航空运输安全性研究提供了理论依据和工程技术参考。     

西部复杂性地貌地区消防规划评估与建设研究 ——以凉山州区域为例

城市消防规划作为城市消防安全体系建设的重要依据,是助力城市现代化进程、推动城市综合安全智慧网络形成的重要基石。通过对凉山州各地貌地区消防现状存在问题的分析,结合凉山州的实际情况及全州建设发展多种形式综合性消防应急救援队伍的需要,提出了能满足全州消防安全需求且能够有效指导城市消防建设的相应对策。     

页岩气加砂压裂高压管汇失效爆裂风险 控制措施研究与实践

随着页岩气平台井工厂化压裂施工启动,在大排量、高压力、长时间施工条件下,高压管汇失效爆裂大幅增加。为减少高压管汇在压裂过程中失效爆裂风险,运用故障假设、因果分析法从人的因素、物的因素、技术工艺、生产管理、工作环境5个方面分析事故的原因,提出了提升采购产品质量、修订完善高压管汇使用技术规范和管理制度、实施专业化管理、应用大数据管理高压管汇、优化现场地面高压管汇流程分配布局设计与联接工艺等高压管汇失效爆裂风险预防控制措施和失效后应急安全防护措施,建立了生命周期全过程、专业化的高压管汇失效爆裂防控与应急防护体系,实现风险可防受控。为页岩气压裂作业的安全提供了参考。     

安全降变原理及C-S-R事故致因新模型

为发展安全科学原理和给事故防控与调查提供新的方法,根据变化对系统安全的影响机制,开展安全降变原理及事故致因新模型研究。首先,提出安全降变原理并解析其内涵及研究意义。其次,基于安全降变原理,给出不同层级安全系统变化的分类实例,并对作业场所事故及其致因重新定义和分类。再次,构建基于安全降变原理的C-S-R事故致因新模型。最后,基于事故案例分析,验证所提出的C-S-R事故致因新模型与安全降变原理的有效性。结果表明,各级安全系统中自发或是受联动的变化超出系统的变化承受水平时,将导致事故的发生。经事故案例分析验证可知,安全降变原理及C-S-R事故致因新模型具有充分的实用性。     

超高强度钻杆低温断裂性能及裂纹扩展特征研究

超高强度钻杆在冬季低温环境下容易发生脆性断裂事故,为了从断裂力学角度揭示其冷脆现象的本质,采用ZBC2302-D型示波冲击试验机,获得了不同温度下超高强度钢在冲击断裂过程中的力-位移曲线,并对比分析了冲击功、起裂功和裂纹扩展功之间的变化关系。采用国家标准GB 4161—2007中的计算公式,计算了冲击试样的裂纹扩展量Δa和阻抗应力强度因子K_R;同时,引入K_R阻力曲线,得到超高强度钻杆在不同温度下的剩余强度图。结果表明,当冲击试样开始出现裂纹时,随温度降低,钻杆的初始起裂应力有所增加,出现硬化现象。当钻杆出现一定长度的裂纹时,随温度降低,阻抗应力强度因子越来越小,而且降低速度越来越快,剩余强度也表现出相同的变化趋势。随温度降低,材料抵抗裂纹扩展的能力逐渐下降,表明钻杆在低温下更容易断裂。     

The role of scientists in statutory interpretation of the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Like many federal statutes, the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) contains vague or ambiguous language. The meaning imparted to the ESA's unclear language can profoundly impact the fates of endangered and threatened species. Hence, conservation scientists should contribute to the interpretation of the ESA when vague or ambiguous language contains scientific words or refers to scientific concepts. Scientists need to know at least these 2 facts about statutory interpretation: statutory interpretation is subjective and the potential influence of normative values results in different expectations for the parties involved. With the possible exception of judges, all conventional participants in statutory interpretation are serving their own interests, advocating for their preferred policies, or biased. Hence, scientists can play a unique role by informing the interpretative process with objective, policy‐neutral information. Conversely, scientists may act as advocates for their preferred interpretation of unclear statutory language. The different roles scientists might play in statutory interpretation raise the issues of advocacy and competency. Advocating for a preferred statutory interpretation is legitimate political behavior by scientists, but statutory interpretation can be strongly influenced by normative values. Therefore, scientists must be careful not to commit stealth policy advocacy. Most conservation scientists lack demonstrable competence in statutory interpretation and therefore should consult or collaborate with lawyers when interpreting statutes. Professional scientific societies are widely perceived by the public as unbiased sources of objective information. Therefore, professional scientific societies should remain policy neutral and present all interpretations of unclear statutory language; explain the semantics and science both supporting and contradicting each interpretation; and describe the potential consequences of implementing each interpretation. A review of scientists’ interpretations of the phrase “significant portion of its range” in the ESA is used to critique the role of scientists and professional societies in statutory interpretation.     

Robust technology policy against emission leakage: The case of upstream subsidies

Asymmetric regulation of a global pollutant between countries can alter the competitiveness of industries and lead to emissions leakage, which hampers countries’ welfare. In order to limit leakage, governments consider supporting domestic trade-exposed firms by subsidizing their investments in abatement technology. The suppliers of such technologies tend to be less than perfectly competitive, particularly when both emissions regulations and advanced technologies are new. In this context of twin market failures, we consider the relative effects and desirability of subsidies for abatement technology. We find a more robust recommendation for upstream subsidies than for downstream subsidies. Downstream subsidies tend to increase global abatement technology prices, reduce pollution abatement abroad and increase emission leakage. On the contrary, upstream subsidies reduce abatement technology prices, and hence also emissions leakage.     

考虑松动圈影响的钻孔瓦斯抽放合理封孔长度确定研究

以王行庄矿11071工作面为工程试验地点,通过超声波和钻孔窥视现场测试,结合理论计算,开展了瓦斯抽采煤巷松动圈范围和瓦斯抽放钻孔合理封孔长度确定的研究。确定了王行庄11071工作面二1煤层围岩卸压区宽度为8.87 m,极限平衡区宽度为9.87 m,合理封孔深度为10 m;通过极限平衡法理论计算得到的结果与超声波法、钻孔窥视法的测试结果基本相符。