基于维纳过程的MEMS陀螺仪贮存寿命评估

目的 针对MEMS陀螺仪在步进应力加速试验条件下获取的性能退化数据,提出基于维纳过程的贮存寿命评估方法及其模型准确度检验方法。方法 首先,确定温度为影响MEMS陀螺仪性能退化的主要环境因素,采用步进温度应力加速试验的方式获取其性能退化数据。其次,分析各项性能参数的演变规律,确定标度因数为表征产品性能退化的特征性能参数。最后,采用漂移维纳过程对标度因数退化轨迹进行建模,并外推得到常温条件下的贮存寿命。结果 采用留一法对模型精度进行验证,模型准确度最低为86.44%。可靠度水平为0.95时,常温贮存(25 ℃)条件下的寿命评估结果为50.02 a。结论 基于维纳过程建立的性能退化模型的准确度在85%以上,该模型可应用于指定贮存条件下MEMS陀螺仪的性能退化预测及贮存寿命评估。     

基于Arrhenius模型和Peck模型的分段非线性加速模型

目的 解决Arrhenius模型无法估计湿度应力敏感产品和Peck模型试验时间较长的问题。方法 考虑温度应力和湿度应力对产品贮存寿命的综合影响,在产品激活能不变的假设下,将Arrhenius模型对产品激活能的估计和Peck模型对湿度应力参数的估计相结合,建立Arrhenius&Peck分段非线性加速寿命估计模型。基于此模型,在双应力恒加试验条件下,得到产品的寿命估计方程。结果 以弹上电子产品的恒定应力加速贮存试验为例,进行仿真分析,得到产品寿命的估计,并对比产品实际寿命。Arrhenius&Peck模型的寿命误差和失效率误差均控制在5%以内,准确度高于Arrhenius模型和Peck模型。结论 构建的Arrhenius&Peck分段非线性加速寿命模型可以充分利用温度和湿度条件下的试验数据,对温湿敏感产品的寿命估计有较好的应用效果,为导弹产品的寿命估计提供一种可选方法。     

海上/岸边储运设施溢油环境风险应急分析

文章分析了海上/岸边油品储运设施的溢油特点,并从溢油流入附近水体后产生的环境风险角度出发,探讨国内外针对溢油事故的法律框架、环境应急反应体系、环境应急响应和应急处置措施。分析在环境应急反应方面国内应对溢油事故存在的问题,为今后在溢油事故环境应急反应方面提出合理化建议。     

一种基于综合环境剖面的导弹弹上设备加速贮存试验方法

目的 基于导弹武器在历经地面使用载荷后,还要满足飞行载荷的特点,讨论用于评估导弹弹上设备贮存期的加速贮存试验流程与方法。方法 开展加速因子试验,获得加速因子计算公式,根据实际使用环境载荷,制定综合环境试验剖面,按照贮存期目标值开展加速贮存试验,等效地面使用环境载荷,开展飞行环境载荷考核试验,试验成功后,给出贮存期评估结论。结果 该方法在多型导弹贮存延寿工程的弹上设备贮存期评估中得到应用,应用表明,可以评估导弹弹上设备的贮存期,具有工程应用价值。结论 获得加速因子计算公式后,将导弹弹上设备的地面使用环境载荷累计影响与能够经受飞行载荷环境分步进行试验,能够体现导弹弹上设备历经的环境载荷,可以用于弹上设备的贮存期评估。     

热电池失效分析及等效加速贮存试验技术

目的 建立基于实测环境载荷的热电池等效加速贮存试验技术,掌握其在环境载荷作用下的性能退化规律。方法 在分析热电池组成和所受环境载荷情况的基础上,分析热电池的主要失效模式,设计基于实测环境数据的等效加速贮存试验,开展热电池等效加速贮存试验,分析热电池性能和热图像的变化情况,利用粒子滤波算法对电池剩余电容量进行预测。结果 随加速循环次数（时间）的增加,热电池的电容量下降。热图像表明,热电池经过等效加速贮存试验后,其放电过程表面温度要高于初始放电表面温度。粒子滤波算法能够有效模拟电容量的退化过程,电池剩余电容量预测结果与试验结果误差在10%以内。结论 等效加速贮存试验得到了热电池的性能退化规律,从而为热电池的贮存试验提供一种解决方案。     

对我国减灾战略的几点建议

本文从我国的灾害特点徊灾害防治中的困难的角度出发,参照灾害防治的经验教训,提出建立管理国家紧急事物的职能机构;设立防灾科研和教育基金;积极开展国际交流和协作;尽快成立灾害信息情报中心和进行必要的救灾物资储备。     

Can intensive management increase carbon storage in forests?

A possible response to increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration is to attempt to increase the amount of carbon stored in terrestrial vegetation. One approach to increasing the size of the terrestrial carbon sink is to increase the growth of forests by utilizing intensive forest management practices. This article uses data from the literature and from forest growth and yield models to analyze the impact of three management practices on carbon storage: thinning, fertilization, and control of competing vegetation. Using Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) as example species, results from experiments with computer simulation models suggest that, for these two species, thinning generally does not increase carbon storage and may actually cause a decrease. The exception is thinning of very dense young stands. Fertilization generally increases carbon storage, although the response can be quite variable. The largest gains in carbon storage are likely to come from fertilizing lower-quality sites and from fertilizing thinned or less dense stands. Forests usually show increased growth in response to fertilization over a wide range of ages. Simulation of the growth of loblolly pine indicates that controlling competing vegetation at an early age helps to maximize stand growth and carbon storage. The research described in this article has been funded by the US Environmental Protection Agency. This document has been prepared at the EPA Environmental Research Laboratory in Corvallis, Oregon, through contract number 68-C8-0006 to NSI Technology Inc. It has been subjected to the agency’s peer and administrative review and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.     

USING GROUND WATER BASINS AS STORAGE FACILITIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: Southern California, now in its fifth consecutive year of drought, has always relied heavily on imported water from the Owens Valley, the State Water Project, and the Colorado River. For various reasons, these sources are now decreasing and water suppliers are being forced to look for new sources. One possible alternative is to store water obtained during peak supply periods for use during dry periods in ground water storage basins. The Santa Ana River Basin in Orange County has already been developed, and is being used to provide water to 25 cities in Orange County. The San Juan Basin, also in Orange County, is being studied as a possible future storage basin. This paper examines some of the positive and negative aspects of developing and using ground water storage basins in Southern California.     

修建佛子岭抽水蓄能电站对水质影响的预测分析

修建佛子岭抽水蓄能电站对水质有一定的影响。在此利用数学模型对施工期及运行期的水质进行了预测，并分析得出水库水质能达到所属水功能区要求，只要控制水库上游面源污染及网箱养鱼，水库就不会发生包括富营养在内的污染问题。     

浅谈油品储运过程中的主要环保问题与对策

简要介绍了油品储运过程，分析了油品储运过程中的主要环保问题，初步提出了解决油品储运中的环保问题应采取的措施。