绵竹县社会经济发展战略的系统动力学研究

摆脱传统思维方式的束缚,采用科学的、系统的、程序化的方法制定我国县级经济和社会发展战略,是我国现代化建设提出的一项艰巨任务。本文旨在通过介绍“绵竹县经济社会发展总体规划(系统工程应用)研究”的核心部分——绵竹县社会经济系统动态仿真模型设计与发展战略的仿真实验择优,阐述系统工程的原理和运用数学模型方法对县级社会经济系统进行总体设计、预演和优化的一点体会。     

An assessment methodology for successional systems. I. Null models and the regulatory framework

Standard procedures for evaluating environmental impact involve comparison between before and after conditions or scenarios or between treatment and control site pairs. In many cases, however, endogenous directional change (natural succession) is expected to occur at a significant rate over the period of concern, particularly for manmade systems such as impoundments. Static evaluations do not provide an adequate approach to such problems. A new evaluation frame is proposed. Nominal system behavior over time is characterized by a stochastic envelope around a nominal trajectory. We show that both the state variance and the sampling variance can change over time. In this context, environmental regulations can be framed as constraints, targets, or conformance to ideal trajectories. Statistical tests for determining noncompliance are explored relative to process variance, sample error, and sample size. Criteria are elucidated for choosing properties to monitor, sample size, and sampling interval.     

Productivity equation for reclaiming surface mines

This article addresses the development of an agricultural productivity equation for predicting new soil (neo-sol) plant growth potential in Clay County, Minnesota, USA. Soil factors examined in the study include percent organic matter, percent slope, percent rock fragments, hydraulic conductivity, electrical conductivity, pH, topographic position, available water-holding capacity, bulk density, and percent clay. Squared terms and two-factor interaction terms were also examined as possible regressors. A best equation was selected that had a multiple coefficient of determination of 0.7399 and has five significant regressors and intercept withP.0001. The regressors are hydraulic conductivity, percent slope squared, bulk density times percent rock fragments, electrical conductivity times percent rock fragments, and electrical conductivity times percent organic matter. The regressors predict soil suitability for a general crop model. The crops included in the model are wheat, oats, barley, soybeans, sugar beets, sunflowers, and grasses/legumes.     

LEAD AND CADMIUM ASSOCIATED WITH SALTWATER INTRUSION IN A NEW JERSEY AQUIFER SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Geological Survey collected ground-water samples from the upper and middle aquifers of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in a 400-square-mile area of New Jersey from 1984 through 1986. Concentrations of lead were greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 50 micrograms per liter in water from 16 of 239 wells. The cencentrations of cadmium were greater than the MCL of 10 micrograms per liter in water from 10 to 241 wells. One-half of the wells that exceeded the lead MCL were in known areas of saltwater intrusion, as were all 10 wells that exceeded the cadmium MCL. The association of elevated concentrations of these metals with elevated concentrations of chloride indicates a mochanism related to saltwater intrusion.     

采场通风方式与瓦斯运移规律研究

采场是煤矿生产的核心地带,而采场通风系统是确保采场作业安全,创造良好生产环境的重要环节。本文以采场风流流动及瓦斯运移理论为基础,通过现场试验、模型模拟试验及计算机模拟研究等方法,着重研究了中国常用的和有发展前途的走向长壁后退式U型通风方式、U+L型通曲方式、后退式Y型通风方式条件下采场风流流动及瓦斯运移规律。     

非时序加权灰色关联分析在环境质量综合评价中的应用

本文根据灰色关联分析的基本性质，提出一种环境质量综合评价的新方法。该方法用待评价样本各指标值组成参考数列，环境质量分级标准值组成被比较数列，通过计算参考数列与被比较数列的关联度，按最优关联识别原则综合评价环境质量等级。用４个实例与其它方法进行了对比，取得满意的效果。     

石油工业废弃物处置及其生物治理趋势

鉴于我国石油工作者对石油工业废弃物的普遍关注，现在介绍生物治理的基本概念及ＳＰＥ石油工程师协会中有关含油污泥生物处置的途径及其突出优越性。生物液／固处理工艺（ＬＳＴ）是目前含油污泥处置现场最经济可行的处置方案。这种好氧的ＬＳＴ工艺过程，能够比较充分地代谢和降解石油污泥中的油和脂并大量除去多环芳烃类（ＰＡＨ）化合物及其它有机化合物，明显地降低了石油废弃物对人、畜的毒害程度。其工艺较简单，操作也简易，凡经此工艺处理后的废弃物不留残毒和后患，因此早已被世界上先进国家的炼油业视为处理含油污泥的有效选择了。石油工业废弃物的生物防治和生物降解工艺较大程度地领先于目前我国现场正在执行的各种处理含油废弃物的处理工艺。     

关于现代中国安全生产管理体系研究：管理、法规、文化

对我国安全生产管理的宏观及微观形势分析，论证了安全生产与国民经济的关系。特别指出从根本上遏制新的事故高峰，关键应强化“大安全观”的安全生产管理体系建设与实践。研究向市场经济转换过程中的中国安全减灾业的发展及管理思路，重点探索了体系化管理、安全文化及安全生产法的主题。     

用水力旋流器净化油田采出水

水力旋流器是近１０年来用于油田采出水处理系统的新型设备，它具有体积小、重量轻、分离性能好、运行安全可靠等优点，在世界各地的海上和陆地油田得到了广泛的使用。本文对具有代表性的Ｖｏｒｔｏｉｌ水力旋流器的基本结构、工作原理、影响分离性能的诸因素、应用和优点等进行了介绍。     

现代灾害、灾害研究与灾害学

本文系统分析现代灾害的特点；评述灾害研究及灾害学的历史与现状，预测其发展趋势；探讨灾害学的基本范畴，界定其学科体系的总体框架，对灾害研究及灾害学发展中的几个重要问题提出认识与建议。