加工工业城市——常州市城市生态安全评价

针对常州市生态环境现状,利用"压力-状态-响应(P-S-R)"理论,构建基于城市资源环境压力、资源环境状态和人文环境响应3个类别的城市生态安全评价模型,以常州市2000—2007年发展过程中的人口,经济、环境等相关指标建立的城市生态安全评价体系进行评价,结果表明:常州市的城市生态安全总体水平在中等偏下,多数城市生态指标处于较低水平,影响常州城市生态安全整体水平的提高。利用P-S-R模型对于常州市城市生态建设和城市发展规划具有一定的参考价值。     

煤层条带开采整体安全系数确定方法研究

为评价工程中条带开采方案的煤层整体稳定性,确定开采方案的安全程度,基于强度折减原理,应用FLAC3D数值模拟软件,将工程实际与数值实验相结合,研究煤层条带开采对地表沉陷、围岩变形和破坏的影响,用安全系数对安全程度进行评价。提出条带开采整体失稳的临界状态判断标准为采空区之间及采空区至地表岩体塑性区域连通,并以地表最大沉降和顶板最大位移突然增大作为临界状态判断标准的验证条件,结果表明:应用强度折减原理进行数值模拟确定的条带开采整体安全系数与工程实际相吻合。     

基于供应链和可拓决策的食品安全预警模型及其应用

为提高食品安全预警能力,改善食品安全状况,以食品原料供应环境质量、生产加工、流通加工、销售食品质量、食品安全管理与监测作为食品安全预警的关键因素,提出一种基于供应链和可拓决策的食品安全预警模型。从供应链的角度建立食品安全预警指标体系,确定食品安全的经典域、节域和预警对象;建立食品安全预警模型并给出食品安全预警的方法和步骤;结合A省2010年的食品安全数据,定量评价A省食品安全预警状态,结合模型评价结果进行单指标和综合安全预警分析,验证该模型的合理性和适用性。研究结果表明:针对食品安全状况与预警特征,运用基于供应链和可拓决策的食品安全预警模型,能够对食品安全状态进行快速判断并有效预警。     

考虑抢行行为的恐慌状态人员疏散研究*

为研究恐慌状态下人员抢行行为对整体疏散效果的影响,建立考虑抢行行为的恐慌状态人员疏散元胞自动机模型,基于恐慌情绪算法将人员分为恐慌者和非恐慌者,通过改变恐慌者抢行概率体现抢行行为,并模拟仿真分析初始人员密度、恐慌情绪转化、抢行概率对人员疏散影响,对疏散过程中特殊现象进行分析。研究结果表明:人员密度适中时,抢行行为能够减少恐慌者数量,加快恐慌者转换进程,疏散时间随抢行概率增加而减小,疏散过程中存在恐慌聚集和两端疏散现象。研究结果可为突发事件下人员紧急疏散提供理论支持。     

氢化物诱致金属稳态裂纹扩展数学模型的应用

在温度和裂尖速度恒定、平面应变和小规模屈服、小规模氢化物沉淀条件下,应用有限元法研究氢化物诱致金属稳态裂纹扩展的信息.在考虑氢扩散、氢化物沉淀、非机械能量流和氢化物/固溶变形等多物理的耦合现象条件下,有限元结果和导出的分析表达式给出的结果都证实应力平稳平台的存在,且两种计算结果相当一致.分析关系式基于氢化学平衡并明确表明了温度、远端氢浓度和氢化物弹性性态效应.裂纹尖端场特性用于发展断裂准则和估计应力强度因子阈值.当归一化应力强度因子趋于零时,临近应力强度因子阈值的裂尖场产生,表现为氢化物沉淀区出现常静水应力.随着归一化应力强度因子值增加,裂纹扩展裂尖场从阶段I演化到阶段II,氢化物沉淀区域实际尺寸减小并偏离平台水平,裂尖场附近的力学响应基本和金属中不含有氢的工况一致,此时裂尖场强烈依赖于远离裂尖场的氢浓度.     

山仔水库叶绿素a与环境因子的相关分析及富营养化评价

依据2003年3～11月对山仔水库的逐月调查和监测数据,分析叶绿素a含量的时空分布情况，探讨叶绿素a与相关环境因子的关系,并应用修正的卡尔森营养状态指数对山仔水库水质进行分析评价。结果表明，山仔水库除了3、10、11月份处于中营养状态,其余月份都处于富营养化状态。叶绿素a具有明显的时空分布特征。日溪进口和山仔水库坝前的叶绿素a含量较高;初夏和秋末出现高峰，叶绿素a含量分别高达211 mg/m^3和93mg/m^3。多元统计分析表明，与山仔水库叶绿素a含量显著相关的因子是水温和溶解氧。生物因子评价表明，山仔水库浮游藻类的种类和数量都达到了富营养化水平。     

Declines in migrant shorebird populations from a winter‐quarter perspective

Many long‐distance migrating shorebird (i.e., sandpipers, plovers, flamingos, oystercatchers) populations are declining. Although regular shorebird monitoring programs exist worldwide, most estimates of shorebird population trends and sizes are poor or nonexistent. We built a state‐space model to estimate shorebird population trends. Compared with more commonly used methods of trend estimation, state‐space models are more mechanistic, allow for the separation of observation and state process, and can easily accommodate multivariate time series and nonlinear trends. We fitted the model to count data collected from 1990 to 2013 on 18 common shorebirds at the 2 largest coastal wetlands in southern Africa, Sandwich Harbour (a relatively pristine bay) and Walvis Bay (an international harbor), Namibia. Four of the 12 long‐distance migrant species declined since 1990: Ruddy Turnstone (Arenaria interpres), Little Stint (Calidris minuta), Common Ringed Plover (Charadrius hiaticula), and Red Knot (Calidris canutus). Populations of resident species and short‐distance migrants increased or were stable. Similar patterns at a key South African wetland suggest that shorebird populations migrating to southern Africa are declining in line with the global decline, but local conditions in southern Africa's largest wetlands are not contributing to these declines. State‐space models provide estimates of population levels and trends and could be used widely to improve the current state of water bird estimates.     

Setting conservation management thresholds using a novel participatory modeling approach

We devised a participatory modeling approach for setting management thresholds that show when management intervention is required to address undesirable ecosystem changes. This approach was designed to be used when management thresholds: must be set for environmental indicators in the face of multiple competing objectives; need to incorporate scientific understanding and value judgments; and will be set by participants with limited modeling experience. We applied our approach to a case study where management thresholds were set for a mat‐forming brown alga, Hormosira banksii, in a protected area management context. Participants, including management staff and scientists, were involved in a workshop to test the approach, and set management thresholds to address the threat of trampling by visitors to an intertidal rocky reef. The approach involved trading off the environmental objective, to maintain the condition of intertidal reef communities, with social and economic objectives to ensure management intervention was cost‐effective. Ecological scenarios, developed using scenario planning, were a key feature that provided the foundation for where to set management thresholds. The scenarios developed represented declines in percent cover of H. banksii that may occur under increased threatening processes. Participants defined 4 discrete management alternatives to address the threat of trampling and estimated the effect of these alternatives on the objectives under each ecological scenario. A weighted additive model was used to aggregate participants’ consequence estimates. Model outputs (decision scores) clearly expressed uncertainty, which can be considered by decision makers and used to inform where to set management thresholds. This approach encourages a proactive form of conservation, where management thresholds and associated actions are defined a priori for ecological indicators, rather than reacting to unexpected ecosystem changes in the future.     

Unintended Cultivation,Shifting Baselines,and Conflict between Objectives for Fisheries and Conservation

The effects of fisheries on marine ecosystems, and their capacity to drive shifts in ecosystem states, have been widely documented. Less well appreciated is that some commercially valuable species respond positively to fishing‐induced ecosystem change and can become important fisheries resources in modified ecosystems. Thus, the ecological effects of one fishery can unintentionally increase the abundance and productivity of other fished species (i.e., cultivate). We reviewed examples of this effect in the peer‐reviewed literature. We found 2 underlying ecosystem drivers of the effect: trophic release of prey species when predators are overfished and habitat change. Key ecological, social, and economic conditions required for one fishery to unintentionally cultivate another include strong top–down control of prey by predators, the value of the new fishery, and the capacity of fishers to adapt to a new fishery. These unintended cultivation effects imply strong trade‐offs between short‐term fishery success and conservation efforts to restore ecosystems toward baseline conditions because goals for fisheries and conservation may be incompatible. Conflicts are likely to be exacerbated if fisheries baselines shift relative to conservation baselines and there is investment in the new fishery. However, in the long‐term, restoration toward ecosystem baselines may often benefit both fishery and conservation goals. Unintended cultivation can be identified and predicted using a combination of time‐series data, dietary studies, models of food webs, and socioeconomic data. Identifying unintended cultivation is necessary for management to set compatible goals for fisheries and conservation. Cultivo Accidental, Líneas de Base Cambiantes y el Conflicto entre los Objetivos para las Pesquerías y la Conservación     

长更号轮客舱内空气质量跟踪调查

对上海海运局所属长更轮进行了４个航次的客轮舱内的空气质量跟踪调查，主要监测了ＣＯ２、ＣＯ２、ＮＯｘ、ＣＨ２Ｏ和ＩＰ等污染因子，调查结果表现，三、四、五等客舱的室内空气均受到污染，相对而言，前两者污染较轻，而后者较严重，空气综合质量指数，甲板上的数据远小于１，三、四等客舱略大于１，五等客舱则远大于１。