Analysis of the Trend and Seasonal Cycle of Carbon Monoxide Concentrations in an Urban Area (4 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope Air quality is an field of major concern in large cities. This problem has led administrations to introduce plans and regulations to reduce pollutant emissions. The analysis of variations in the concentration of pollutants is useful when evaluating the effectiveness of these plans. However, such an analysis cannot be undertaken using standard statistical techniques, due to the fact that concentrations of atmospheric pollutants often exhibit a lack of normality and are autocorrelated. On the other hand, if long-term trends of any pollutant’s emissions are to be detected, meteorological effects must be removed from the time series analysed, due to their strong masking effects. Materials and Methods The application of statistical methods to analyse temporal variations is illustrated using monthly carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations observed at an urban site. The sampling site is located at a street intersection in central Valencia (Spain) with a high traffic density. Valencia is the third largest city in Spain. It is a typical Mediterranean city in terms of its urban structure and climatology. The sampling site started operation in January 1994 and monitored CO ground level concentrations until February 2002. Its geographic coordinates are W0°22′52″ N39°28′05″ and its altitude is 11 m. Two nonparametric trend tests are applied. One of these is robust against serial correlation with regards to the false rejection rate, when observations have a strong persistence or when the sample size per month is small. A nonparametric analysis of the homogeneity of trends between seasons is also discussed. A multiple linear regression model is used with the transformed data, including the effect of meteorological variables. The method of generalized least squares is applied to estimate the model parameters to take into account the serial dependence of the residuals of this model. This study also assesses temporal changes using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. The KZ filter has been shown to be an effective way to remove the influence of meteorological conditions on O₃ and PM to examine underlying trends. Results The nonparametric tests indicate a decreasing, significant trend in the sampled site. The application of the linear model yields a significant decrease every twelve months of 15.8% for the average monthly CO concentration. The 95% confidence interval for the trend ranges from 13.9% to 17.7%. The seasonal cycle also provides significant results. There are no differences in trends throughout the months. The percentage of CO variance explained by the linear model is 90.3%. The KZ filter separates out long, short-term and seasonal variations in the CO series. The estimated, significant, long-term trend every year results in 10.3% with this method. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 8.8% to 11.9%. This approach explains 89.9% of the CO temporal variations. Discussion The differences between the linear model and KZ filter trend estimations are due to the fact that the KZ filter performs the analysis on the smoothed data rather than the original data. In the KZ filter trend estimation, the effect of meteorological conditions has been removed. The CO short-term componentis attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in emissions. There is a significant seasonal cycle. This component is a result of changes in the traffic, the yearly meteorological cycle and the interactions between these two factors. There are peaks during the autumn and winter months, which have more traffic density in the sampled site. There is a minimum during the month of August, reflecting the very low level of vehicle emissions which is a direct consequence of the holiday period. Conclusions The significant, decreasing trend implies to a certain extent that the urban environment in the area is improving. This trend results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and economics. It is also due to the effect of introducing reformulated gasoline. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering the emission of CO. The KZ filter has been the most effective method to separate the CO series components and to obtain an estimate of the long-term trend due to changes in emissions, removing the effect of meteorological conditions. Recommendations and Perspectives Air quality managers and policy-makers must understand the link between climate and pollutants to select optimal pollutant reduction strategies and avoid exceeding emission directives. This paper analyses eight years of ambient CO data at a site with a high traffic density, and provides results that are useful for decision-making. The assessment of long-term changes in air pollutants to evaluate reduction strategies has to be done while taking into account meteorological variability     

Assessing protected area effectiveness using surrounding (buffer) areas environmentally similar to the target area

Many studies are based on the assumption that an area and its surrounding (buffer) area present similar environmental conditions and can be compared. For example, in order to assess the effectiveness of a protected area, the land use/cover changes are compared inside the park with its surroundings. However, the heterogeneity in spatial variables can bias this assessment: we have shown that most of the protected areas in Mexico present significant environmental differences between their interior and their surroundings. Therefore, a comparison that aims at assessing the effectiveness of conservation strategies, must be cautioned. In this paper, a simple method which allows the generation of a buffer area that presents similar conditions with respect to a set of environmental variables is presented. The method was used in order to assess the effectiveness of the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve, a protected area located in the south-eastern part of Mexico. The annual rate of deforestation inside the protected area, the standard buffer area (based upon distance from the protected area only) and the similar buffer area (taking into account distance along with some environmental variables) were 0.3, 1.3 and 0.6%, respectively. These results showed that the protected area was effective in preventing land clearing, but that the comparison with the standard buffer area gave an over-optimistic vision of its effectiveness.     

环保在绿色GDP中的涵义功能及意义

阐述环保在绿色GDP的涵义、功能及实现绿色GDP的意义。     

加强城市灾害应急管理能力建设确保城市的可持续发展

本文通过对我国城市化与经济发展的关系,分析了我国城市面临的灾害形势及城市应急管理中存在的问题,提出了加强城市应急能力建设的途径,可供国内各大中城市参考和借鉴.     

浅淡西部地区可持续发展中的污水处理问题

西部地区水污染问题已经成为制约西部可持续发展因素之一.从环保意识、工艺适合性、资金的投入、经营体制、立法政策等5个方面分析了西部地区在污水处理上存在的问题,并提出了相应的对策和建议.     

绿色制造在机电产品全生命周期中的实施探讨

就机电产品从制造到报废回收的全生命周期中对环境的影响进行分析，提出了实行绿色制造的必要性。对绿色制造的产生、涵义、实施绿色制造的意义及其实施办法进行了论述。重点分析了机电产品的设计、毛坯制造、机械加工、热处理、装配、包装、使用和维修、报废回收等全周期各环节中可能带来环境污染的因素，提出了减少污染、实施绿色制造的措施与建议。     

略论中国绿色社区建设

绿色社区建设在中国刚刚起步 ,这是一种全新的发展理念、发展目标和发展模式 ,是实施可持续发展战略的现实要求 ,是加快中国城市化进程的必然选择 ,是全面建设小康社会的重要内涵 ,是创造绿色文明的热切呼唤。建设绿色社区具有重要的理论指导意义和实践示范作用。     

滇池沿岸农村固体废物污染调查研究 --呈贡县大渔乡案例分析

以呈贡县大渔乡为案例,调查分析了区域农村固体废物的来源、产生量、成分和处理处置现状,引入了固体废弃物潜在污染负荷指数。     

玉溪市城市绿地系统规划研究

本文系统地分析了玉溪市绿地系统现状及城市绿地建设存在的问题，结合国际城市绿化发展的趋势，为玉溪市今后的绿地建设提出思路和对策。