Climate and Water Conflicts Coevolution from Tropical Development and Hydro‐Climatic Perspectives: A Case Study of Costa Rica

Costa Rica is a nation with a vast wealth of water resources; however, recently the country has faced water conflicts (WC) due to social, economic, legal, and political impediments in response to limited water availability during El Niño events and inefficient use of its water resources. This study presents a spatial distribution and temporal analysis of WC in Costa Rica from 2005 to 2015. In total, 719 WC were analyzed of which 54% were among private individuals and government. The largest urban areas and the Grande de Tárcoles Basin were identified as the main “hot spot” for the conflicts. WC were mainly caused by spills of wastewater, water pollution, water shortage, infrastructure damage, and flooding, and can be predicted using a multiple linear model including the population size and the number of hydro‐meteorological events (HME) (R² = 0.77). The identified HME also coevolved significantly with the changes in precipitation regimes (r = 0.67, p = 0.021). Our results suggest that there is a need to recognize that water infrastructure longevity across the country concatenates and amplifies WC, mainly in the most populated area located in the Central Valley. Implications of our findings include the need for truly integrated water resources management plans that include, for example, WC as indicators of hydro‐climatic changing conditions and water supply and sanitation infrastructure status.     

黄土高原关键带土壤水分空间分异特征

地球关键带是人类生存和发展的关键区域。关键带发生的一系列物理、化学和生物过程与人类活动密切相关。土壤水分是黄土高原关键带的关键要素,同时又是黄土高原植被恢复与生态环境重建的决定因子。为揭示黄土高原关键带土壤水分的空间分异特征,采用网格(50m×50m)布点,雨季结束后采集0~500cm深度土壤样品,结合室内分析,结果表明:黄土高原小流域中73个样点0~500cm的土壤含水量分布范围介于1%~23%之间,降水对0~100cm土层的土壤水分补充明显;土壤水分在水平和垂直方向都表现出明显的空间异质性,在不同方向上的水分控制过程有所不同,是对土地利用方式、植被类型、地形要素、土壤质地等多因素综合响应的结果。充分理解关键带土壤水分空间的分异规律及其主控因素有助于该区小流域综合治理中的植被建造与布局,也有助于对该区土壤水文和生物地球化学过程的理解。     

Inter-annual Variations of Ozone and Nitrogen Dioxide Over Europe During 1958–2003 Simulated with a Regional CTM

Inter-annual variability of surface ozone (O₃) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) over Europe has been studied over the period 1958–2003 using a three-dimensional Chemistry-Transport Model coupled to meteorological data from the ERA40 data set produced at the European Centre of Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Emissions and boundary conditions were kept at present levels throughout the simulation period. It was found that the annual mean NO₂ concentration varies between ±50% and the summer mean O₃ concentration varies between −10 and +20 percent (%) compared to the 46-year average over the model domain. There is also variation in ozone and NO₂ over longer time scales. The last 22 years display high concentrations of ozone in central and south-western Europe and low concentrations in north-eastern Europe. The first 22 years display very high concentrations of NO₂ over the North Sea. There is indication of trends in ozone and nitrogen dioxide but this has to be investigated further. Such information is one factor that should be taken into account when considering future control strategies.     

IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATIC VARIABILITY FOR REGULATORY LOW FLOWS IN THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN,COLORADO1

ABSTRACT: The maximum concentration of a regulated substance that is allowed in a wastewater effluent usually is determined from the amount of dilution provided by the receiving water. Dilution flow is estimated from historical data by application of statistical criteria that define low flow conditions for regulatory purposes. Such use of historical data implies that the past is a good indicator of future conditions, at least for the duration of a discharge permit. Short records, however, introduce great uncertainty in the estimation of low flows because they are unlikely to capture events with recurrence frequencies of multiple years (e.g., ENSO events or droughts). We conducted an analysis of daily flows at several gages with long records in the South Platte River basin of Colorado. Low flows were calculated for successive time blocks of data (3‐, 5‐, 10‐, and 20‐years), and these were compared with low flows calculated for the entire period of record (> 70 years). In unregulated streams, time blocks of three or five years produce estimates of low flows that are highly variable and consistently greater than estimates derived from a longer period of record. Estimates of low flow from 10‐year blocks, although more stable, differ from the long term estimates by as much as a factor of two because of climate variation. In addition, the hydrographs of most streams in Colorado have been influenced by dams, diversions, or water transfers. These alterations to the natural flow regime shorten the record that is useful for analysis, but also tend to increase the calculated low flows. The presence of an upward trend in low flows caused by water use represents an unanticipated risk because it fails to incorporate societal response to severe drought conditions. Thus, climate variability poses a significant risk for water quality both directly, because it may not be represented adequately in the short periods of the hydrologic record that are typically used in permits, and indirectly, through its potential to cause altered use of water during time of scarcity.     

HYDROLOGIC SIMULATION OF THE LITTLE WASHITA RIVER EXPERIMENTAL WATERSHED USING SWAT1

ABSTRACT: Precipitation and streamflow data from three nested subwatersheds within the Little Washita River Experimental Watershed (LWREW) in southwestern Oklahoma were used to evaluate the capabilities of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict streamflow under varying climatic conditions. Eight years of precipitation and streamflow data were used to calibrate parameters in the model, and 15 years of data were used for model validation. SWAT was calibrated on the smallest and largest sub‐watersheds for a wetter than average period of record. The model was then validated on a third subwatershed for a range in climatic conditions that included dry, average, and wet periods. Calibration of the model involved a multistep approach. A preliminary calibration was conducted to estimate model parameters so that measured versus simulated yearly and monthly runoff were in agreement for the respective calibration periods. Model parameters were then fine tuned based on a visual inspection of daily hydrographs and flow frequency curves. Calibration on a daily basis resulted in higher baseflows and lower peak runoff rates than were obtained in the preliminary calibration. Test results show that once the model was calibrated for wet climatic conditions, it did a good job in predicting streamflow responses over wet, average, and dry climatic conditions selected for model validation. Monthly coefficients of efficiencies were 0.65, 0.86, and 0.45 for the dry, average, and wet validation periods, respectively. Results of this investigation indicate that once calibrated, SWAT is capable of providing adequate simulations for hydrologic investigations related to the impact of climate variations on water resources of the LWREW.     

元江-红河干流径流时序特性及突变分析

以元江干流主要控制性水文站蛮耗站在1956～2000年观测记录共45年的径流量序列数据为基础,运用Mann Kendall、有序聚类和累积距平等统计方法分析元江径流分布规律及其变化的基本特征。结果表明：实测径流年内分配不均,年际变化不大,年径流变差系数为0263。实测径流量序列存在明显的阶段性和缓慢上升趋势。对元江实测径流序列进行还原处理得到天然径流量,发现其与实测径流的差异不大,多年平均水资源耗水量仅占天然径流量的292%。年径流量和径流系数在1965年和1994年前后都发生两次增加突变;而年降水量与流域年蒸散发量没有发生突变。归一化植被植物变化表明元江干流植被覆盖在1993年左右被破坏较为严重。因此,得出径流变化趋势主要与降雨有关,两次突变主要受人类对下垫面改变的影响。     

基于改进ISM-FRAM铁路运输事故致因分析*

为提高功能共振(FRAM)在铁路运输系统事故致因分析方面清晰度和完整性,提出新增环境模块的改进FRAM模型,刻画环境功能模块与其它功能模块交互耦合作用;通过引入解释结构模型(ISM),划分事故致因分析网络结构层次,分别计算分析网络层级重要度和功能模块结构重要度,并采用改进区间值犹豫模糊熵定量计算功能可变性和耦合损失度。结果表明:新增环境功能模块能有效分析与其它功能模块交互耦合作用,保证FRAM分析完整性;ISM-FRAM模型建立清晰事故层次结构,有助于理清事故致因;功能可变性和耦合损失度弥补FRAM风险评估定量分析不足,为功能屏障设置提供依据。     

鱼类养殖对水体磷酸盐的影响：源、汇的半现场实验例证

设置4个温度水平（16℃,20℃,23℃和26℃）和3个投喂水平（1%,2%和饱食水平）,在类养殖场条件下饲喂许氏平鲉,研究其对水体磷酸盐浓度的影响.结果表明,在所有温度、投喂水平下,水体的磷酸盐浓度均有升、降.从物质平衡角度看,养殖鱼类是水体磷酸盐的源,但又不是单纯的源,因鱼粪和残饵等微粒的吸附作用,养殖鱼类有可能成为水体磷酸盐的汇。因此在评价鱼类养殖的环境容量时,慎用活性磷酸盐磷这个指标。此外,进行鱼类养殖环境影响评价时,应加强颗粒物的监测;为降低水体的磷负荷,磷酸盐和水体颗粒物质均应是生态调控的对象。     

A methodological proposal for the evaluation of farmer’s adaptation to climate variability, mainly due to drought in watersheds in Central America

The current study shows the process and the results of a methodology proposed to contribute with the issue of how to evaluate the adaptation to climate variability and future climate change. The proposed methodology consists of a standard to evaluate farmer’s adaptation to climate variability, mainly due to drought in watersheds in Central America; and was created with contributions from experts and professionals around this region. The phases for this process were: (1) literature review about the topic, (2) development of a preliminary standard, (3) expert interviews for the evaluation of this preliminary standard, (4) construction of a standard to evaluate the issue of adaptation to climate variability emphasizing drought through contributions from experts and their preliminary evaluations, (5) applicability test of this standard for the evaluation of climate variability under real conditions and (6) application of this standard through a case study in the Aguas Calientes river sub-watershed in Nicaragua, which permanently undergoes drought problems and climate variability. This standard has five main principles that go from the general, considering regional and national policies and institutionalism, to the specifics at the level of watersheds. In addition to those principles, the standard contains ten criteria, 26 indicators and 51 verifiers distributed among the main five principles. In the process for testing this standard in the Aguas Calientes river watershed in Nicaragua, the score for the general applicability to this standard was middle-level (score of 3 in a scale of 1 to 5), although, for the main principles of this standard, the score was four (high).     

铅锌矿区农田土壤重金属有效态空间分布及其影响因子分析

利用地统计学方法,研究了广西岩溶地区某铅锌矿区农田土壤中Cd、Zn、Pb、Cu四种重金属有效态含量的空间分布特征及其影响因子.结果表明:研究区域不同程度地受到Cd、Zn、Pb、Cu的污染,且水田污染较旱地严重;与广西土壤背景值相比,污染程度最严重的是Cd,在水田和旱地中超标率均为100%,平均超标倍数分别为312.94和33.67;其次是Zn,在水田和早地中超标率分别为100%和34%,平均超标倍数分别为38.34和2.11;污染最轻的为Cu,超标率仅为7%.空间分析表明,有效态Cd、Zn、Pb、Cu的块金系数分别为2.7%、0.2%、6.5%、0.13%,体现了强烈的空间自相关性,且四种重金属空间分布特征相似,在离原铅锌选矿厂较近的西北偏西面有效态Cd、Zn、Pb、Cu含量最高,沿着西北偏西至东南偏东的灌溉渠流向,有效态Cd、Zn、Pb、Cu的含量呈递减趋势,东部旱地有效态Cd、Zn、Pb、Cu含量相对较低.土壤有效态Cd、Zn、Pb、Cu在污染区的空间分布与土壤基本理化性质关系密切,有效态Cd、Zn、Pb、Cu与pH、阳离子交换量、粘粒都呈极显著负相关,与有机质含量则呈极显著正相关.