What Influences Innovation Adoption by Water Managers? Climate Information Use in Brazil and the United States1

Abstract: This paper examines the use of climate forecasting in water management in Brazil and the United States (U.S.). Specifically, it seeks to understand how different institutional arrangements shape the willingness and ability of water managers to incorporate technoscience, especially seasonal climate forecasting (SCF), in their decision‐making process. It argues that among the many factors shaping the willingness of water managers to use SCF, institutional design and change is critical to explain different patterns in Brazil and the U.S. Moreover, factors related to individual flexibility, discretion, and accountability also affect the ability of managers to use climate information in water management. This paper finds that while water managers in the U.S operate in a mostly fragmented and risk‐averse system – which constrains the adoption of innovation – decision makers in Brazil can afford more flexibility to introduce new decision tools as a result of widespread water management reforms initiated in the 1990s.     

Relative Effects of Climate and Water Use on Base‐Flow Trends in the Lower Klamath Basin1

Abstract: Since the 1940s, snow water equivalent (SWE) has decreased throughout the Pacific Northwest, while water use has increased. Climate has been proposed as the primary cause of base‐flow decline in the Scott River, an important coho salmon rearing tributary in the Klamath Basin. We took a comparative‐basin approach to estimating the relative contributions of climatic and non‐climatic factors to this decline. We used permutation tests to compare discharge in 5 streams and 16 snow courses between “historic” (1942‐1976) and “modern” (1977‐2005) time periods, defined by cool and warm phases, respectively, of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. April 1 SWE decreased significantly at most snow courses lower than 1,800 m in elevation and increased slightly at higher elevations. Correspondingly, base flow decreased significantly in the two streams with the lowest latitude‐adjusted elevation and increased slightly in two higher‐elevation streams. Base‐flow decline in the Scott River, the only study stream heavily utilized for irrigation, was larger than that in all other streams and larger than predicted by elevation. Based on comparison with a neighboring stream draining wilderness, we estimate that 39% of the observed 10 Mm³ decline in July 1‐October 22 discharge in the Scott River is explained by regional‐scale climatic factors. The remainder of the decline is attributable to local factors, which include an increase in irrigation withdrawal from 48 to 103 Mm³/year since the 1950s.     

Modes of Variability of Annual and Seasonal Rainfall in Mexico

The aim of this study is to identify temporal and spatial variability patterns of annual and seasonal rainfall in Mexico. A set of 769 weather stations located in Mexico was examined. The country was divided into 12 homogeneous rainfall regions via principal component analysis. A Pettitt test was conducted to perform a homogeneity analysis for detecting abrupt changes in mean rainfall levels, and a Mann‐Kendall test was conducted to examine the presence of monotonically increasing/decreasing patterns in the data. In total, 14.4% of the annual series was deemed nonstationary. Fourteen percent of the samples were nonstationary in the winter and summer, and 9% were nonstationary in the spring and autumn. According to the results, the nonstationarity of some seasonal rainfall series may be associated with the presence of atmospheric phenomena (e.g., El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation). A rainfall frequency analysis was performed for the nonstationary annual series, and significant differences in the return levels can be expected for the scenarios analyzed. The identification of areas that are more susceptible to changes in rainfall levels will improve water resource management plans in the country, and it is expected that these plans will take into account nonstationary theory.     

Spring and autumn spatial distribution of zooplankton carbon requirement across the Mediterranean Sea

Zooplankton represents a key contributor to the ocean biological pump through its consumption of sinking and suspended carbon. A specific and highly sensitive method to evaluate zooplankton carbon requirement from the sinking flux is through the estimation of the activity of the electron transport system. The present study was carried out from samplings in 2006, and it was focused on the spatial 200–0?m zooplankton carbon demand across 24 sampling stations, along the Mediterranean Sea, from the island of Crete to the Strait of Gibraltar. Its potential day/night variability was evaluated. The zooplankton composition, abundance and biomass were investigated. The carbon demand per unit zooplankton biomass indicates geographical and diel differences among the sampling stations. A higher mean carbon demand was seen for the western Mediterranean with respect to the eastern Mediterranean, which can be justified through the observed ratio of gelatinous:crustacean taxa and the water temperatures recorded. Higher carbon demand was measured in samples collected during the dark hours. The relation to the presence and abundance of actively migrating euphausiids and copepods was discussed. A comparison with data from another of our study carried out in the same study area but in another seasonal period was done.     

Uncertainty of exposure assessment of consumers to pesticide residues derived from food consumed

The sources of quantitative and qualitative uncertainties of the exposure of a consumer to a pesticide residue are identified. The contribution of quantifiable uncertainties of input parameters of deterministic model to the combined uncertainty of the estimated exposure is shown with detailed calculation using the pesticide residue content of food consumed during two days. The daily intakes of bifenthrin residues calculated for the 60 kg bodyweight of the reporting person are 0.00257 mg/kgbw and 0.00281 mg/kgbw for day 1 and day 2, respectively with 27-28% combined uncertainty. The major contributors were fruits and whole meal bread. The contribution of the individual steps to the combined uncertainty depends on the particular food item. In general, the variability of recipes, estimation of the mass of consumed food, sampling, processing of raw commodities and analysis of pesticide residues influenced most, in decreasing order, the combined uncertainty of the estimated daily exposure.     

丹江口水库蓄水后汉江中下游水文时空变化的#br# 定量评估及其生态影响

采用变化范围法（RVA）定量研究了丹江口水库蓄水后汉江中下游水文情势的时空变化,评估出汉江干流变化度最大的江段和水文特征指标类别,分析了其对应的生态影响,并针对汉江流域的四大家鱼和水华问题进行了敏感水文指标的变化度分析。结果显示:丹江口大坝蓄水后,汉江下游河道流量是中变化度占主导,比例范围为47～63%;水位是高变化度占主导,襄阳站和皇庄站高变化度的水文指标所占比例远大于其它站点,依次为53% 和75%,各站水位较蓄水前下降了1～2 m。黄家港站高/低流量脉冲出现的频率减少（变化度为-0.49和 -0.62）,且持续的时间变短（变化度为-0.87和 -0.74）。皇庄站和襄阳站流量和水位的月均值和极值较蓄水前减少,逆转次数在高RVA范围内较蓄水前增加（变化度为1.82）。四大家鱼产卵的敏感水文指标出现频率较蓄水前减少,且为中高变化度。下游河道枯水期流量和水位减小,增加了水华发生几率。     

新疆精河县近56年来气候变化特征分析

利用精河县1953-2008年的气温和降水资料,通过回归分析、趋势分析和5年滑动平均法分析得出56年来该县的气温和降水总体呈上升趋势,气候呈暖湿化趋势,其中冬季增温明显,秋季降水增加较多。     

Adaptive Water Resource Planning in the South Saskatchewan River Basin: Use of Scenarios of Hydroclimatic Variability and Extremes

The South Saskatchewan River Basin is one of Canada's most threatened watersheds, with water supplies in most subbasins over‐allocated. In 2013, stakeholders representing irrigation districts, the environment, and municipalities collaborated with researchers and consultants to explore opportunities to improve the resiliency of the management of the Oldman and South Saskatchewan River subbasins. Streamflow scenarios for 2025‐2054 were constructed by the novel approach of regressing historical river flows against indices of large‐scale ocean‐atmosphere climate oscillations to derive statistical streamflow models, which were then run using projected climate indices from global climate models. The impacts of some of the most extreme scenarios were simulated using the hydrologic mass‐balance model Operational Analysis and Simulation of Integrated Systems (OASIS). Based on stakeholder observations, the project participants proposed and evaluated potential risk management and adaption strategies, e.g., modifying existing infrastructure, building new infrastructure, changing operations to supplement environmental flows, reducing demand, and sharing supply. The OASIS model was applied interactively at live modeling sessions with stakeholders to explore practical adaptation strategies. Our results, which serve as recommendations for policy makers, showed that forecast‐based rationing together with new expanded storage could dramatically reduce water shortages.     

Agricultural vulnerability over the Chinese Loess Plateau in response to climate change: Exposure,sensitivity, and adaptive capacity

Understanding how the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change can differ spatially has practical significance to sustainable management of agricultural systems worldwide. Accordingly, this study developed a conceptual framework to assess the agricultural vulnerability of 243 rural counties on the Chinese Loess Plateau. Indicators representing the climate/agriculture interface were selected to describe exposure and sensitivity, while stocks of certain capitals were used to describe adaptive capacity. A vulnerability index for each county was calculated and the spatial distribution was mapped. Results showed that exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity occur independently, with most contributing indicator values concentrated in a narrow range after normalization. Within the 49 most vulnerable counties, which together encompass 81 % of the vulnerability index range, 42 were characterized by high exposure and sensitivity but low adaptive capacity. The most vulnerable area was found to be located in the central northeast–southwest belt of Loess Plateau. Adaptation measures for both ecological restoration and economic development are needed and potential adaptation options need further investigation.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0727-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

长江上游大型水库群对宜昌站水文情势影响分析

近年来,长江上游已建成一批大型水库,其运行调度必然会对下游的径流产生影响。水文变化指标法(IHA)和水文变化幅度法(RVA)是以水流的量、时间、频率、延时和变化率5种基本特征为基础,对建坝前后的河道水文情势变化进行定量分析的方法。根据长江流域大型水库群建设的实际情况,利用Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法划分了宜昌站建库前后的流量序列,用来评估长江上游大型水库群对宜昌站水文情势的改变情况。M-K相关检验发现,宜昌站的年最小流量已经在2000年发生了显著性地变化;IHA和RVA分析成果表明,宜昌站的水文情势已经发生了中等程度的改变,主要是与小流量相关的一些因子,如1~3月平均流量、最小流量六个因子、低脉冲发生次数及持续时间等;随着以三峡水库为核心的上游大型水库群建成并投入运行,未来长江下游河道径流还将发生进一步的改变。