Evolution,variability and sustainable development

SUMMARY

Sustainable development is a global challenge to science and society. In politics and economics the concepts for establishing a sustainable society are numerous, nonetheless necessary interdisciplinary approaches are still marginalised. Trying to foster a deeper communication between biology and social science, an evolutionary perspective on sustainable development is offered. Subsequently, the role of variability and diversity in evolution is highlighted. Hereby, special attention is devoted, among other things, to the links between variability and stability in the long term. Next, selection and variability are emphasised in the cultural context. This is followed by general implications for sustainability. In contrast to strategies aiming at short-term optimisation and economic efficiency, we argue that the conditions and circumstances maintaining variability and momentary sub-optimal alternatives are highly relevant for a socio-economic system that is heading for sustainable development.     

多重密度布点对土壤有机质空间特性的解析

论文以张家港市耕层土壤有机质（Soil organic matter, SOM）为目标变量,通过网格布点建立11种样点密度梯度,运用经典统计学和地统计学方法研究其空间特性随布点密度变化的趋势规律。结果表明,各密度下SOM的变异系数稳定在21.70%~23.12%之间,表现出中等程度变异;随着布点密度降低,SOM的块基比和分维数分别由37.52%、1.838波动降至18.70%、1.714,Moran’s I则由0.485起伏升高至0.857,相应地其空间变异中结构变异组分增多、随机变异贡献减少,空间自相关性也逐渐增强;SOM呈现西南-东北递减分布,随着样点密度减小,其空间格局趋于简化。论文以布点密度为视窗,揭示了SOM的多重空间尺度特征,可为解析土壤属性的层级结构提供参考依据。     

江汉平原县域尺度土壤有机质空间变异特征与合理采样数研究

土壤有机质含量是衡量土壤肥力和评价耕地质量的重要指标。在县域尺度下,利用合理数量的样点反映其空间分异特征具有重要意义。论文选取位于江汉平原腹地的湖北省公安县为研究区,布设了4 045个样点并测定其有机质含量,采用半方差分析得到土壤有机质空间变异特征,基于Moran’s I揭示空间变异较大地区,并通过二分法的思想逼近最佳合理采样数值。结果表明：研究区土壤有机质分布呈中等空间相关性,有6个局部区域的空间变异明显高于邻近地区,采样点数量与插值精度呈正相关,合理采样数为598个。研究结果可以为江汉平原县域耕地质量监测和管控提供指导。     

“衡邵干旱走廊”历史降雨量时空特征及趋势分析

采用"衡邵干旱走廊"28个气象站点建站以来的逐月降水资料,基于泰森多边形法、面积加权法得到该地区年、季、月尺度降雨量,应用Mann-Kendall(M-K)非参数检验、GIS空间分析及Hurst指数等研究了降水的时空特征及趋势,结合降水距平百分率指标(P_a)揭示气候异常特征.结果表明:时间上,"衡邵干旱走廊"年际降水呈弱增加趋势,无突变特征;年内降水集中,春季和夏季多,秋季和冬季较少,除了春季,其余季节降水均有突变;各站点年降雨量变化有增有减,仅武冈显著下降,M-K检验表明,有8个站点存在突变点.年尺度P_a显示,"衡邵干旱走廊"1994、2002年为中涝,2011年为中旱,其余绝大部分为正常年,且各站点雨涝重于旱情;从季、月尺度P_a来看,夏、秋季节干旱特征明显,秋季干旱强度高于夏季,且"伏旱"严重.空间上,"衡邵干旱走廊"降水高值区主要位于四周地势较高地区,低值区主要分布于盆地范围内;北部、东部降水呈增加趋势,中部、西部以减少趋势为主.Hurst指数揭示,"衡邵干旱走廊"降水未来趋势持续性略高于反持续性.     

典型入湖河流水体氮素变化特征及其对降雨的响应:以太湖乌溪港为例

以2010~2015年太湖主要入湖港口乌溪港的水质监测数据为基础,结合当地降雨资料,分析了乌溪港水体中氮素的时间变化特征及其对降雨的响应.结果表明,乌溪港水体污染情况严峻,总氮年均值在4.41~5.92 mg·L~(-1)之间,远超地表水环境质量标准Ⅴ类限值2 mg·L~(-1),氨氮在1.09~1.72 mg·L~(-1)之间.总氮和氨氮浓度呈现明显的季节性变化规律,春冬季节浓度高,夏秋季节浓度较低.2015、2011、2012年总氮浓度均值分别为5.92、5.47、5.82 mg·L~(-1),显著高于2013年4.45mg·L~(-1)和2014年4.41 mg·L~(-1),2011年氨氮浓度均值为1.72 mg·L~(-1),显著高于2013年1.19 mg·L~(-1)和2015年1.09mg·L~(-1).随着降雨强度的增加,总氮浓度呈现先降低后升高最后又降低的趋势,氨氮浓度则先升高后逐渐降低.此外,氮素浓度呈现非汛期高于汛期的特征.     

北京市顺义区浅层土壤硝态氮的空间变异特征分析

顺义是北京市的主要水源地和农业生产基地,研究氮素在顺义区土壤中的分布累积及空间变异情况,对于了解顺义区的土壤潜在污染,指导农业生产,预防面源污染等具有重要作用.因此,本研究应用传统统计学方法和基于GIS的地统计学法研究了顺义区不同地点各土层土壤中硝态氮的空间分布特征.结果发现,地统计分析过程中,在考虑各向异性和趋势效应的情况下,各土层土壤硝态氮含量均具有空间相关性,理论变异模型主要为球状模型和指数模型.同时,选用普通Kriging插值法得到了各土层土壤硝态氮的空间分布图,并对其空间分布特征进行了分析.结果表明,研究区不同土层硝态氮空间分布状况各异,潮白河东部土壤硝态氮含量高于潮白河西部.     

Dengue epidemics in the Caribbean-temperature indices to gauge the potential for onset of dengue

The seasonality, patterns and the climate associations of the reported cases of dengue in the Caribbean were studied by analyzing the annual and monthly variability of reported cases as well as those of climate parameters (temperature and precipitation). More attention was given to Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, and Jamaica, as those countries contributed mostly to the reported cases. The data were for the period 1980–2003. Results showed that the incidence of dengue in the Caribbean were higher in the last decade (1990s) compared to that in the previous decade (1980s). The yearly patterns of dengue exhibited a well-defined seasonality. The epidemics appeared to occur in the later half of the year following onset of rainfall and increasing temperature. Analysis revealed that the association of the epidemics with temperature was stronger, especially in relation to the onset of dengue, and the probability of epidemics was high during El Niño periods. In years with early warmer periods epidemics appeared to occur early, which was a scenario more probable in the year after an El Niño (an El Niño + 1 year). Indices linked to temperatures that are useful for gauging the potential for onset of dengue were examined. An index based on a moving average temperature (MAT) appeared to be effective in gauging such potential and its average (AMAT) signals a threshold effect. MAT index has potential use in adaptation and mitigation strategies.     

长三角地区农田土壤养分空间变异及养分综合评价

以浙江宁波三七市镇的一块面积为 2562 hm2 的农田为研究区域,运用地统计学与GIS相结合的手段和方法对其土壤养分的空间变异特征展开研究。结果表明,5种养分要素的空间变异函数曲线的理论模型符合指数模型;速效钾、有机质和pH值的C0/(C0+C)<25%,表现出强烈的空间相关性,碱解氮和有效磷的C0/(C0+C)为25%~75%,具有中等的空间相关性。通过Kriging插值并依据养分的分级标准,所得的空间变异图能很好地反映农田土壤养分的空间变异特征和丰缺状况,几种养分要素中,碱解氮、有效磷和有机质含量总体丰富,而速效钾的含量处于中低水平,pH值较低,土壤呈现酸性。利用主成分分析结合空间插值的方法,还可以对研究区的土壤养分的综合状况进行评价。研究结果可为当地以及长江三角洲同类型地区在科学施肥、实行养分的分区管理以及农业面源污染的控制方面提供一定的科学依据和借鉴参考。     

近52a长江中下游地区极端降水的时空变化特征

长江中下游地区是我国主要农业区,同时也是降水异常,洪涝灾害频繁发生的地区之一,对长江中下游地区极端降水变化的研究,可以为该区农业生产及防洪减灾提供参考依据。利用1961~2012年间的长江中下游地区84个站点的逐日降水观测资料,基于年最大日降水(AM)序列与超门限峰值降水(POT)序列,通过滑动平均、Mann-Kendall检验法、线性倾向估计等方法,分析了该地区极端降水事件的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)长江中下游地区近52a来极端降水量呈现为较明显的增加趋势,且极端降水量速率为9.3mm/10a,存在较为明显的年代际波动变化特征,1990年以后进入极端降水量偏多的时期;(2)AM与POT序列多年平均值大值主要分布在江西省大部、湖北东南部以及安徽南部;AM与POT序列多年标准差大值主要分布江西东南部与北部,湖北东南部以及湖南西北部;AM序列多年平均值与标准差均高于POT序列,AM序列年际间振幅要明显强于POT序列,极端降水年际变化幅度大于年内变化;(3)长江中下游沿岸地区年最大日降水量主要表现为增加趋势,长江以北的西部地区则主要表现为减少趋势;长江沿岸地区以及中东部地区的极端降水量主要表现为增加趋势,西部地区则主要表现为减少趋势。     

Role of adsorption behavior on metal build-up in urban road dust

Metal pollution of stormwater runoff can cause potential toxic impacts on the receiving water environment and human health. Effective pollution mitigation requires accurate stormwater quality modeling. Even though a significant knowledge base exists on the factors influencing metal build-up on urban roads, very limited studies have investigated how metal–particulate interaction influences metal build-up. This study quantitatively assessed the influence of particulate characteristics, together with vehicular traffic and land use, on the build-up of Zn, Cu, Pb, Cr, Ni and Cd on urban roads. The study outcomes revealed that the variability in metal build-up is highly influenced by the variability associated with metal adsorption to particulates. The percentage contribution from particulate properties influencing metal adsorption in the case of 150 μm size road dust particles was found to be higher(Zn 44%, Cu 52%, Cr 16%, Ni 27% and Cd 45%) when compared to traffic and land use characteristics(Zn 21%, Cu 13%, Cr and Ni 10% and Cd 34%). Similar adsorption behavior was noted for metals associated with 150 μm size road dust particles. Among different particulate properties influencing metal adsorption, effective cation exchange capacity showed a strong positive relationship with the build-up of Cd compared to other metals,highlighting the potential role of Cd in stormwater quality as a readily available metal. The build-up of metals such as Cr and Ni are highly influenced by metal oxides of Al, Fe and Mn and clay forming minerals, indicating that Cr and Ni are relatively stable in nature.