A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

乌鲁木齐市可吸入颗粒物(PM10)与总悬浮颗粒物(TSP)的相关性规律浅析

通过对乌鲁木齐市的PM10和TSP数据的对比分析，找出PM10在TSP中所占比率（分担率）在采暖季和非采暖季的变化范围，从而使过去采集的TSP数据与PM10数据有一定的可比性，保证监测数据的连续可比。     

发光细菌法评价工业废水的毒性

用发光细菌测定法估算了两城市污水对河道水体污染的分担率，评价了工厂排放废水的毒性，并据此确定了污染源监督管理中应优先治理的工厂（车间）废水。     

合成洗涤剂对小鼠诱变性研究

连续５天腹腔注射同一剂量（１／５ＬＤ５０）的合成洗涤剂，取小鼠骨髓细胞测定嗜多染色红细胞的微核率，研究表明，３种合成洗涤剂（加大香洗衣粉，洁牌餐具洗涤剂，恩威高级餐具洗洁精）使小鼠微核率有所增高，但恩威，洁牌餐具洗涤剂与对照无显著性差异。     

阳离子共聚物的反相悬浮聚合

采用反相悬浮聚合方法合成颗粒状的阳离子型高分子絮凝剂。选用丙烯酰胺(Am)和氯化[N,N,N-三甲基乙醇丙烯酸酯]盐(AQ)两种单体,研究反应体系的特征及影响分子量的基本因素,诸如温度、单体浓度、引发剂浓度、分散剂浓度、水相和油相的体积比(Vw/Vo)对分子量的影响。为了选择出最佳原料比,本文对两种单体的原料比进行了研究。实验中还发现亚硫酸钠是一种优良的缩短反应诱导期、加速反应进程的试剂。     

Assessment of China's economic loss resulting from the degradation of agricultural land in the end of 20th century

Land degradation is a consequence stemming from both natural processes and social economic activities. On the bases of analyzing general situation of agricultural land degradation in China, the monetary estimating methods such as market value method and shadow engineering method were used to quantitatively assess the economic loss resulting from land deterioration. Results showed that the economic loss in 1999 was 326.8l billion RMB Yuan, which accounted for 4.1% of GDP in the same year of China. If taking five items namely farmland conversion, soil erosion, salinization, decline in reservoir functions, and siltation in waterways and, comparing with that in 1992, the percentage of economic loss to GDP has increased by 1.5 in the only 7 years.     

Numerical modeling of radionuclide migration in porous media with nonequilibrium sorption

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基于AHP-MF模型的用户群节水指标体系研究

从分析影响用户群节水的因素及其构成关系入手,根据专家长期节水工作的经验,利用层次分析法对用户群节水指标进行优选,并提出全面的定量化和定性化的层次结构评价模式和总体评价方法.首先构建用户群节水的层次分析结构模型及判断矩阵,应用Matlab6.5计算出各判断矩阵的最大特征值及其特征向量,并检验判断矩阵的一致性,继而确定出各指标的权重;其次,应用Fuzzy统计的方法对陕西2006年度高校用户群的节水情况进行评价,并为节水工作提供建设性意见.     

炭素行业推行清洁生产的污染物排放系数研究

推行清洁生产、减少污染物排放量，根本的方法是控制物料流失。本研究对炭素制品生产过程中的投入产出进行物料平衡测算，确定各工序物料流失总量及污染物排放系数，提出减少流失、降低排污系数的措施。     

太原市工业区大气中TSP浓度及元素成分分析

采用校正空白称量法对太原市工业区大气中ＴＳＰ浓度进行了测定分析，对该区大气ＴＳＰ浓度随时间变化的规律，超标情况及污染特征进行了研究，同时测定了ＴＳＰ中Ｃｒ、Ｐｂ等１２种元素的含量。