丹江口库区可持续发展能力分析

从区域可持续发展的角度出发,以湖北省丹江口库区为例,首先定性分析库区可持续发展的优势与问题,认为库区移民安置工作困难,库区可持续发展受到限制;经济增长缓慢,基础设施建设滞后;城镇化水平较低,库区社会矛盾突出;自然资源丰富与开发不足并存,库区淹没加剧土地资源稀缺;环境质量较好,生态基础脆弱。然后采用多因素综合评价模型定量分析了1999～2005年库区可持续发展的变化趋势。结果表明：库区可持续发展能力从1999年到2003年呈现明显的上升趋势,却从2004年开始缓慢下降;而人口、经济、社会、资源和环境各子系统也呈现出不同的特征。最后针对定性和定量评价结果提出相应的对策建议：做好库区移民安置,实现移民稳定就业;减少和消除移民贫困,增加基础设施建设;加快小城镇建设步伐,解决库区社会矛盾;发挥水资源优势,改善库区生态环境。     

Evaluation of the spontaneous combustion tendency of corrosion products in oil tanks based on TOPSIS methodologies

Spontaneous ignition of the corrosion products of an oil tank may lead to an explosion. To evaluate the spontaneous combustion tendency of corrosion products in oil tanks, the thermodynamic characteristic parameters of the corrosion products of oil tanks were obtained by thermogravimetry as evaluation indexes. Then, the objective weights of these indexes were calculated via the CRITIC method, and TOPSIS theory was used to comprehensively evaluate the spontaneous combustion tendency of corrosion product samples from oil tanks. The results show that the weight of the mass loss rate at the ignition point is the highest, and the apparent activation energy of the corrosion products is not the decisive factor affecting their spontaneous combustion tendency. As such, the spontaneous combustion tendency of the corrosion products of oil tanks cannot be based on only the apparent activation energy. The spontaneous combustion tendency of the corrosion products of a gasoline tank is lower than that of a diesel tank. The higher the heating rate is, the stronger the tendency of spontaneous combustion will be.     

煤矿安全目标管理成果评价的模型与方法

在简要介绍煤矿安全目标管理方法和目标体系的基础上,提出了确定安全目标管理综合目标值的ＧＭ（１,Ｎ）－ ＳＭＣＯ模型,用于对目标成果进行评价,并给出了某煤矿安全目标管理成果评价的应用实例     

Accountability,Reporting, or Management Improvement? Development of a State of the Parks Assessment System in New South Wales,Australia

Management effectiveness evaluation has been recognized as an important mechanism for both reporting on and improving protected area management. The Convention on Biological Diversity’s program of work on protected areas calls on all countries to implement such systems. In 2004, the first whole of system assessment of park management effectiveness, based on the IUCN-WCPA Management Effectiveness Evaluation Framework, was undertaken in New South Wales, Australia as part of a State of the Parks reporting requirement. This article describes the development of the State of the Parks assessment tool, its elements, and how it addresses the management effectiveness difficulties associated with assessments conducted across an extensive and diverse range of park types. The importance of engaging staff, at all levels, throughout the process is highlighted, as well as the adjustments made to the assessment tool based on staff feedback. While some results are presented, the main purpose of the article is to identify and discuss important procedural and methodological considerations. These include balancing quantitative and qualitative assessment approaches, achieving a comprehensive understanding of the management processes, and responding to any problems associated with assessments.     

Evaluation of sulfate resistance of cement mortars containing black rice husk ash

In this paper, black rice husk ashes (BRHAs), which are agrowastes from an electricity generating power plant and a rice mill, were ground and used as a partial cement replacement. The durability of mortars under sulfate attack including expansion and compressive strength loss were investigated. For parametric study, BRHA were used as a Portland cement Type 1 replacement at the levels of 0%, 10%, 30%, and 50% by weight of binder. The water-to-binder ratios were 0.55 and 0.65. For the durability of mortar exposed to sulfate attack, 5% sodium sulfate (Na₂SO₄) and magnesium sulfate (MgSO₄) solutions were used. As a result, when increasing the percentage replacement of BRHA, the expansion and compressive strength loss of mortar decreased. At the replacement levels of 30% and 50% of BRHA, the expansion of the mortars was less than those mixed with sulfate-resistant cement. However, the expansion of the mortars exposed to Na₂SO₄ was more than those exposed to MgSO₄. Increasing the replacement level of BRHA tends to reduce the compressive strength loss of mortars exposed to Na₂SO₄ attack. In contrary, under MgSO₄ attack, when increasing the replacement level of BRHA, the compressive strength loss increases from 0% to 50% in comparison to Portland cement mortar. Results show that ground BRHA can be applied as a pozzolanic material to concrete and also improve resistance to sodium sulfate attack, but it can impair resistance to magnesium sulfate attack.     

基于遗传算法的洪水灾情评估神经网络模型探讨

洪水灾情评估实际上是一种模式识别问题,而人工神经网络模型具有逼近有界闭子集上任意非线性映射的特性,且模型更新方便。本文邮基于遗传算法的洪水灾情评估神经网络模型,阐述了其基本原理和算法,实例研究表明其实用性、客观性和通用性。     

地震预报与活断层分段

文章回顾分析了地震预报的经验与问题,对地震短期预报需进行新的探索与研讨,才能更快地前进。文章重点论述了地震预报和地震危险性评估方面有关的断层分段性问题。如何在众多的活断层上确定近期可能发生强震的地段,是地震预报中突出的重要问题之一。有关活断层分段性问题是近年来十分引人注目的课题。段是断层的破裂单元,断层的分段就是对断层进行独立的破裂单元的划分。断层分段有4种,当前讨论的主要是活断层破裂分段。     

区域可持续发展评价工作的经常化问题

讨论了区域可持发展评价的经常化问题，提出了一张通用的指导性评价指标清单及其使用方法。经过实例模拟验算，认为基本可行，建议让区域可持续发展评价工作成为政府的定期行为 。     

Voluntary Pollution Prevention Programs in New Zealand - An evaluation of practice versus design features

Coordinated voluntary approaches to Pollution Prevention are widely practiced in many western-style economies. However, little empirical research has been undertaken into the extent to which these approaches match best practice pollution prevention approaches. In this paper nine programs employed by five regional and district councils in New Zealand are evaluated against nine ‘Best Practice’ design features. All five councils’ pollution prevention programs contained some of the best practice design features in their program’s design. Perhaps not surprisingly the older programs rank highest out of the five. However, all programs have the potential to develop towards containing all of the ‘best practice’ design features, with most emphasis needed on the credibility of program monitoring. From an ongoing research perspective, and also from an overall PP program performance point of view, the biggest challenge remains the extent and depth that the programs apply each of the design features. As presented they are extremely generic. While generic design features provide for flexibility in implementation, often seen as a positive, they can also be a recipe for ‘tokenism’, something that future researchers and program managers need to be aware of. We also sought to determine if these programs were contributing to sustainable management in New Zealand. Findings in this respect were equivocal. This finding in part is due to the lack of specificity around targets, monitoring and reporting, items needing further attention from managers and researchers.     

水旱灾害损失评估系统

从我国水旱灾害防治实际需求出发,提出研建水旱灾害损失评估系统的必要性,对系统的结构、功能和作用作了详细的分析和描述．