基于浮动车数据的机动车排放实时测算模型

根据浮动车检测技术可针对单车采集,所收集数据中的平均速度按照采样间隔连续的特点,利用道路实测数据建立了面向其应用的轻型车尾气排放实时测算模型.模型中引入平均速度增量(ASI)指标对平均速度进行细分,并以其来反映相同平均速度下的排放变化.结果表明,与实测数据相比,模型对CO2的计算误差在10%以内;NOx、HC和CO的计算误差在15%以内.同时提出了模型使用方法,可以实现对路网中交通尾气污染的实时测算和动态评估.     

基于无人机探空和数值模拟天津一次重污染过程分析

污染发生在边界层中,边界层热力和动力垂直结构对重污染天气形成有显著影响.本文基于无人机探空、地基遥感观测和数值模式,开展天津地区2019年1月10~15日重污染过程期间边界层垂直结构及污染成因分析,以期加强北方沿海城市边界层过程对重污染影响规律认知,提升重污染天气预报预警准确率.结果表明：大气温度层结对重污染天气形成、持续和消散有显著影响,此次过程伴随逆温层的发展和消散,PM_2.5高浓度区白天向大气上层发展,高度可达300 m以上,夜间向近地面压缩,高度在100 m左右;雾天气出现并在白天维持,改变了边界层垂直结构特征,雾顶逆温的持续存在抑制了污染物向大气上层扩散,使得白天湍流垂直混合过程贡献明显下降,导致近地面重污染天气维持和发展;过程期间区域输送贡献率为66.6%,边界层垂直结构与重污染天气区域输送密切相关,区域污染物输送高度主要出现在边界层顶部以及雾顶逆温层以上的大风速层处,且随着边界层和雾顶抬升高度的变化,通过下沉运动影响地面,形成北部弱高压天气控制下静稳天气区域输送;边界层垂直结构影响冷空气对空气质量的改善效果,S3阶段雾顶的强逆温导致冷空气无法通过湍流切应力传导到地面,在高低空存在明显的风速差,冷空气影响地面时间延后,作用减弱,重污染天气无法彻底缓解.     

Commuter exposure to BTEX in public transportation modes in Bangkok, Thailand

Measurements and monitoring of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) have been conducted in the metropolitan Bangkok. However, in-vehicle levels of VOCs are still lacking. This study investigated VOCs concentrations in four public transportation modes in Bangkok, Thailand during two rush hour periods (7:00-9:00 a.m. and 4:00-7:00 p.m.). The four modes included an air-conditioned bus (A/C bus), non-air-conditioned bus (non-A/C bus), electric sky train, and a passenger boat traveling along the canal. Comparison among three important bus routes was also studied. In-vehicle air samples were collected using charcoal sorbent tubes and then analyzed by a gas chromatography-mass spectrometer. Results showed that the transportation modes significantly influenced the abundance of in-vehicle benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and m,p-xylene (BTEX). Median concentrations of BTEX were 11.7, 103, 11.7, and 42.8 μg/m3 in A/C bus; 37.1, 174, 14.7, and 55.4 μg/m3 in non-A/C bus; 2.0, 36.9, 0.5, and 0.5 μg/m3 in sky train; and 3.1, 58.5, 0.5, and 6.2 μg/m3 in boat, respectively. Wilcoxon rank sum test indicated that toluene and m,p-xylene in the sky trains were statistically lower than that in the other three modes at a p-value of 0.05. There were statistical differences in TEX concentrations among the bus routes in the non-A/C buses. In addition, the benzene to toluene ratios implied that tail-pipe emissions were important contributor to the abundance of in-vehicle VOCs.     

Development of database of real-world diesel vehicle emission factors for China

A database of real-world diesel vehicle emission factors, based on type and technology, has been developed following tests on more than 300 diesel vehicles in China using a portable emission measurement system. The database provides better understanding of diesel vehicle emissions under actual driving conditions. We found that although new regulations have reduced real-world emission levels of diesel trucks and buses significantly for most pollutants in China,NO_x emissions have been inadequately controlled by the current standards, especially for diesel buses, because of bad driving conditions in the real world. We also compared the emission factors in the database with those calculated by emission factor models and used in inventory studies. The emission factors derived from COPERT (Computer Programmer to calculate Emissions from Road Transport) and MOBILE may both underestimate real emission factors, whereas the updated COPERT and PART5 (Highway Vehicle Particulate Emission Modeling Software) models may overestimate emission factors in China. Real-world measurement results and emission factors used in recent emission inventory studies are inconsistent, which has led to inaccurate estimates of emissions from diesel trucks and buses over recent years. This suggests that emission factors derived from European or US-basedmodels will not truly represent real-world emissions in China. Therefore, it is useful and necessary to conduct systematic real-world measurements of vehicle emissions in China in order to obtain the optimum inputs for emission inventory models.     

中国城市轻型车的排放特性

采用机动车实际上路排放测试系统对北京、重庆和成都3城市27辆轻型车进行了测试和分析;采用发动机比功率VSP、发动机负荷ES和排放单元BIN分析了轻型车瞬态排故的特征及影响排放的主要因素.结果表明.发动机技术和累计行驶里程对排放的影响很大,而VSP等概念还反映了道路坡度对排放因子的影响;由于城市道路坡度的差异,导致同一测试车辆在重庆和成都2个城市的排放水平相差10%～100%.     

中国典型城市机动车排放演变趋势

选择中国12个典型城市建立1990~2009年机动车排放清单,分析各城市机动车排放历史演变趋势.结果显示,1990~2009年,研究各城市CO、VOCs、NOx和PM排放因子分别降低57%~81%、53%~78%、22%~74%和31%~76%.20年间,各城市CO和VOCs排放量总体在2000年后陆续达到增长峰值后开始下降,总量分别增长1.0倍和1.4倍;NOx和PM排放量总体保持持续增长,分别增长3.2倍和3.3倍.各城市汽油车是CO和VOCs排放主要贡献源,LDA-G、MDTB-G和HDTB-G对各城市机动车CO和VOCs排放的贡献和分别为约70%~90%和约50%~85%,其中LDA-G的排放贡献明显提高.LDA-G、MDTB-G、MDTB-D和HDTB-D贡献了80%~90%的NOx排放,其中MDTB-D和HDTB-D的排放贡献率从平均57.8%上升为72.7%.对于PM,MDTB-D和HDTB-D占排放的70%~90%.此外,部分城市摩托车排放的贡献不容忽视.     

机动车车载尾气检测技术研究综述

车载尾气检测技术的出现和发展为机动车尾气的相关研究提供了一种较为准确、便捷、实时反映城市路网排放的测试方法。本文详细介绍了车载尾气检测技术的发展历程和原理,综述了该技术在行驶周期开发、尾气排放特性和规律研究、建立机动车尾气排放数据库和建立城市路网排放清单等领域的应用现状,并通过比较该技术在国内、外的应用差距,提出了在绿色交通领域充分利用该技术进行机动车污染评价与控制的合理建议。     

Etiology of fatal thoracic aortic injuries: Secondary data analysis

Objectives: Motor vehicle crashes remain a leading cause of death in the United States (US). Thoracic aortic dissection due to blunt trauma remains a major injury mechanism, and up to 90% of these injuries result in death on the scene. The objective of this study is to understand the modern risk factors and etiology of fatal thoracic aortic injuries in the current US fleet.

Methods: Using a unique, linked, Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and Multiple Cause of Death (MCOD) database from 2000–2010, 144,169 drivers over 16 years of age who suffered fatal injuries were identified. The merged database provides an unparalleled fidelity for identifying thoracic aortic injuries due to motor vehicle accidents. Thoracic aortic injuries were defined by ICD-10 codes S250. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models for presence of any thoracic aortic injuries were fitted. Age, gender, BMI weight categories, vehicle class, model year, crash type/direction, severity of crash damage, airbag deployment location, and seatbelt use, fatal injury codes, and location of injury were considered. Odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) are calculated.

Results: There were 2953 deaths (2.10%) related to thoracic aortic injuries that met the inclusion criteria. Nearside crashes were associated with an increased odds (OR = 1.42, 1.1-1.83), while rollover crashes (OR =.44,.29-.66) were associated with a reduced odds of fatal thoracic aortic injury. Using backward selection on the full multivariate model, the only significant model effects that remained were vehicle type, crash type, body region, and injury type.

Conclusions: The increased prevalence of fatal thoracic aortic injury in nearside crashes, increasing age, and vehicle type provide some insight into the current US fleet. Important factors, including model year, had significantly lower levels of the injury in univariate analysis, demonstrating the effect of safety improvements in newer model vehicles. Further study of this fatal injury is warranted, including comparisons of those who survive the injury.     

Underutilization of occupant restraint systems in motor vehicle injury crashes: A quantitative analysis from Qatar

Introduction: Restraint systems (seat belts and airbags) are important tools that improve vehicle occupant safety during motor vehicle crashes (MVCs). We aimed to identify the pattern and impact of the utilization of passenger restraint systems on the outcomes of MVC victims in Qatar.

Methods: A retrospective study was conducted for all admitted patients who sustained MVC-related injuries between March 2011 and March 2014 inclusive.

Results: Out of 2,730 road traffic injury cases, 1,830 (67%) sustained MVC-related injuries, of whom 88% were young males, 70% were expatriates, and 53% were drivers. The use of seat belts and airbags was documented in 26 and 2.5% of cases, respectively. Unrestrained passengers had greater injury severity scores, longer hospital stays, and higher rates of pneumonia and mortality compared to restrained passengers (P = .001 for all). There were 311 (17%) ejected cases. Seat belt use was significantly lower and the mortality rate was 3-fold higher in the ejected group compared to the nonejected group (P = .001). The overall mortality was 8.3%. On multivariate regression analysis, predictors of not using a seat belt were being a front seat passenger, driver, or Qatari national and young age. Unrestrained males had a 3-fold increase in mortality in comparison to unrestrained females. The risk of severe injury (relative risk [RR] = 1.82, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.49–2.26, P = .001) and death (RR = 4.13, 95% CI, 2.31–7.38, P = .001) was significantly greater among unrestrained passengers.

Conclusion: The nonuse of seat belts is associated with worse outcomes during MVCs in Qatar. Our study highlights the lower rate of seat belt compliance in young car occupants that results in more severe injuries, longer hospital stays, and higher mortality rates. Therefore, we recommend more effective seat belt awareness and education campaigns, the enforcement of current seat belt laws, their extension to all vehicle occupants, and the adoption of proven interventions that will assure sustained behavioral changes toward improvements in seat belt use in Qatar.     

基于GM(1,1)模型的军用车辆交通事故预测研究

在分析军用车辆交通事故预测技术重要性的基础上,根据2005—2009年的军用车辆交通事故原始数据,建立军车交通事故的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型。对军用车辆交通事故起数和死亡人数进行短期预测,并通过实例验证预测模型的适用性。通过模型验证结果可以看出:GM(1,1)模型预测所得数据较为精确。预测结论如下:未来几年,军车交通事故会稳步下降,事故发生次数会快速减少,但死亡人数相对减少较缓。