Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

基于降水Z指数的朝鲜降水及旱涝时空特征

利用TRMM（Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission,TRMM）3B43月降水数据,并结合降水Z指数,研究朝鲜1998—2018年的降水和旱涝时空格局。结果表明：TRMM与站点观测降水数据有显著的相关性。朝鲜降水季节性特征明显,57.29%的降水集中在夏季,空间上自东北部沿海岸线向东南递增。朝鲜的区域综合旱涝等级基本处于正常状态,偏旱和偏涝发生的频率最高,其次是大旱和大涝,极旱和极涝发生的频率最低,夏季和冬季干旱发生最为频繁,而洪涝在秋季频发。朝鲜北部发生旱涝事件的频率明显高于南部,咸镜山脉和盖马高原是旱涝的多发地区,温泉平原则最不易受到旱涝影响。春季、夏季和秋季均呈现洪涝强度增强的趋势。夏季洪涝强度加剧的趋势明显,中北部地区通过95%的显著性检验。     

两种桑科植物叶片光合及光呼吸对模拟干旱的响应

采用150 g/L的聚乙二醇(Polyethylene glycol,PEG)模拟干旱胁迫,研究两种桑科植物(构树和桑树)的叶片光合及光呼吸特征对干旱胁迫的响应。对植物培养液的相关化学参数以及叶片的光合参数进行测定,结果表明:干旱对构树根系吸水能力的影响小于桑树的;构树以中光合-低蒸腾-高水分利用率的模式适应干旱环境,桑树以低光合-低蒸腾-高水分利用率的模式来应对干旱环境;在模拟干旱环境下,构树以稳定的羧化效率-高光呼吸速率-高光呼吸利用份额来适应外界胁迫,而桑树以低羧化效率-低光呼吸速率-低光呼吸利用份额来应对外界胁迫。构树表现出对外界干旱胁迫更好的适应性,这种适应机制可能与其较强的光呼吸作用及其碳酸氢根离子利用能力有关。这种"以碳换水"的机制可能是喀斯特适生植物适应岩溶干旱的又一个重要机制。     

Mitigation and adaptation synergy in forest sector

Mitigation and adaptation are the two main strategies to address climate change. Mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in the global negotiations as well as literature. There is a realization on the need to explore and promote synergy between mitigation and adaptation while addressing climate change. In this paper, an attempt is made to explore the synergy between mitigation and adaptation by considering forest sector, which on the one hand is projected to be adversely impacted under the projected climate change scenarios and on the other provide opportunities to mitigate climate change. Thus, the potential and need for incorporating adaptation strategies and practices in mitigation projects is presented with a few examples. Firstly, there is a need to ensure that mitigation programs or projects do not increase the vulnerability of forest ecosystems and plantations. Secondly, several adaptation practices could be incorporated into mitigation projects to reduce vulnerability. Further, many of the mitigation projects indeed reduce vulnerability and promote adaptation, for example; forest and biodiversity conservation, protected area management and sustainable forestry. Also, many adaptation options such as urban forestry, soil and water conservation and drought resistant varieties also contribute to mitigation of climate change. Thus, there is need for research and field demonstration of synergy between mitigation and adaptation, so that the cost of addressing climate change impacts can be reduced and co-benefits increased.     

Yellow River Valley flood and drought disaster:spatial-temporal distribution predictionand early-warning

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用镁合金促进兵器装备轻量化

概述了兵器装备轻量化的意义、镁合金的性能特点 ,介绍了镁合金在兵器上应用的实例 ,指出了镁合金在兵器上应用存在的问题 ,分析了镁合金在兵器上应用的前景 ,对镁合金在兵器上的应用工作提出了若干建议     

云南蒙自县新建小区室内空气污染调查及防治措施探讨

对蒙自县新建小区11户33个点室内环境空气中的游离甲醛、氨、苯进行了监测，游离甲醛和苯均超过标准。对有害物质的来源、危害及防治进行了讨论。     

Methodological and Practical Considerations for Developing Multiproject Baselines for Electric Power and Cement Industry Projects in Central America

The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) and the Center for Sustainable Development in the Americas (CSDA) conducted technical studies and organized two training workshops to develop capacity in Central America for the evaluation of climate change projects. This paper describes the results of two baseline case studies conducted for these workshops, one for the power sector and one for the cement industry, that were devised to illustrate certain approaches to baseline setting. Multiproject baseline emission rates (BERs) for the main Guatemalan electricity grid were calculated from 2001 data. In recent years, the Guatemalan power sector has experienced rapid growth; thus, a sufficient number of new plants have been built to estimate viable BERs. We found that BERs for baseload plants offsetting additional baseload capacity ranged from 0.702 kgCO2/kWh (using a weighted average stringency) to 0.507 kgCO2/kWh (using a 10th percentile stringency), while the baseline for plants offsetting load-following capacity is lower at 0.567 kgCO2/kWh. For power displaced from existing load-following plants, the rate is higher, 0.735 kgCO2/kWh, as a result of the age of some plants used for meeting peak loads and the infrequency of their use. The approved consolidated methodology for the Clean Development Mechanism yields a single rate of 0.753 kgCO2/kWh. Due to the relatively small number of cement plants in the region and the regional nature of the cement market, all of Central America was chosen as the geographic boundary for setting cement industry BERs. Unfortunately, actual operations and output data were unobtainable for most of the plants in the region, and many data were estimated. Cement industry BERs ranged from 205 kgCO2 to 225 kgCO2 per metric ton of cement.     

CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS IN NORTHERN CANADA: INTEGRATING INDIGENOUS PERSPECTIVES WITH GOVERNMENT POLICY

A study of the relationship between natural hazards and climate change in the international context provides the background for a discussion of the expected changes. In the context of this global discussion, this paper reviews the current perspectives of those natural hazards that are likely to be influenced by climate change, using northern Canada as a regional case study. The northern implications of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are examined, including the status of climate change action by the northern territorial governments, the evolving role of indigenous people, and the responsibility for climate change impacts. The difficulties surrounding natural hazards research in remote locations, and the approaches of indigenous people to natural hazards are then presented. The paper concludes with a suggested policy approach for climate change and natural hazards in northern Canada, underscoring the need for more comprehensive adaptive strategies to complement the current tendency to focus on the mitigation of greenhouse gases produced in this region.     

The 'who' and 'what' of training far disaster relief

This paper defines the various levels within government, the voluntary agencies and the community which might benefit from training and makes suggestions as to where the emphasis should be placed. It points out that training programmes should be designed to meet the expressed needs of a particular group of trainees as well as be related to the current or potential disaster situation.