Predicting the Probability of Outbreeding Depression

Abstract: Fragmentation of animal and plant populations typically leads to genetic erosion and increased probability of extirpation. Although these effects can usually be reversed by re‐establishing gene flow between population fragments, managers sometimes fail to do so due to fears of outbreeding depression (OD). Rapid development of OD is due primarily to adaptive differentiation from selection or fixation of chromosomal variants. Fixed chromosomal variants can be detected empirically. We used an extended form of the breeders’ equation to predict the probability of OD due to adaptive differentiation between recently isolated population fragments as a function of intensity of selection, genetic diversity, effective population sizes, and generations of isolation. Empirical data indicated that populations in similar environments had not developed OD even after thousands of generations of isolation. To predict the probability of OD, we developed a decision tree that was based on the four variables from the breeders’ equation, taxonomic status, and gene flow within the last 500 years. The predicted probability of OD in crosses between two populations is elevated when the populations have at least one of the following characteristics: are distinct species, have fixed chromosomal differences, exchanged no genes in the last 500 years, or inhabit different environments. Conversely, the predicted probability of OD in crosses between two populations of the same species is low for populations with the same karyotype, isolated for <500 years, and that occupy similar environments. In the former case, we recommend crossing be avoided or tried on a limited, experimental basis. In the latter case, crossing can be carried out with low probability of OD. We used crosses with known results to test the decision tree and found that it correctly identified cases where OD occurred. Current concerns about OD in recently fragmented populations are almost certainly excessive.     

Demographic Effects of Harvesting Epiphytic Bromeliads and an Alternative Approach to Collection

Abstract: Hundreds of epiphytic bromeliads species are harvested from the wild for trade and for cultural uses, but little is known about the effects of this harvest. We assessed the potential demographic effects of harvesting from the wild on 2 epiphytic bromeliads: Tillandsia macdougallii, an atmospheric bromeliad (adsorbs water and nutrients directly from the atmosphere), and T. violaceae, a tank bromeliad (accumulates water and organic material between its leaves). We also examined an alternative to harvesting bromeliads from trees—the collection of fallen bromeliads from the forest floor. We censused populations of T. macdougallii each year from 2005 to 2010 and of T. violaceae from 2005 to 2008, in Oaxaca, Mexico. We also measured monthly fall rates of bromeliads over 1 year and monitored the survival of fallen bromeliads on the forest floor. The tank bromeliad had significantly higher rates of survival, reproduction, and stochastic population growth rates (λ_s) than the atmospheric bromeliad, but λ_s for both species were <1, which suggests that the populations will decline even without harvest. Elasticity patterns differed between species, but in both, survival of large individuals had high elasticity values. No fallen bromeliads survived more than 1.5 years on the forest floor and the rate of bromeliad fall was comparable to current harvest rates. Low rates of population growth recorded for the species we studied and other epiphytic bromeliads and high elasticity values for the vital rates that were most affected by harvest suggest that commercial harvesting in the wild of these species is not sustainable. We propose the collection of fallen bromeliads as an ecologically and, potentially, economically viable alternative.     

Use of Land Facets to Plan for Climate Change: Conserving the Arenas,Not the Actors

Abstract: Even under the most optimistic scenarios, during the next century human‐caused climate change will threaten many wild populations and species. The most useful conservation response is to enlarge and link protected areas to support range shifts by plants and animals. To prioritize land for reserves and linkages, some scientists attempt to chain together four highly uncertain models (emission scenarios, global air–ocean circulation, regional circulation, and biotic response). This approach has high risk of error propagation and compounding and produces outputs at a coarser scale than conservation decisions. Instead, we advocate identifying land facets—recurring landscape units with uniform topographic and soil attributes—and designing reserves and linkages for diversity and interspersion of these units. This coarse‐filter approach would conserve the arenas of biological activity, rather than the temporary occupants of those arenas. Integrative, context‐sensitive variables, such as insolation and topographic wetness, are useful for defining land facets. Classification procedures such as k‐means or fuzzy clustering are a good way to define land facets because they can analyze millions of pixels and are insensitive to case order. In regions lacking useful soil maps, river systems or riparian plants can indicate important facets. Conservation planners should set higher representation targets for rare and distinctive facets. High interspersion of land facets can promote ecological processes, evolutionary interaction, and range shift. Relevant studies suggest land‐facet diversity is a good surrogate for today's biodiversity, but fails to conserve some species. To minimize such failures, a reserve design based on land facets should complement, rather than replace, other approaches. Designs based on land facets are not biased toward data‐rich areas and can be applied where no maps of land cover exist.     

Threatened Species and the Potential Loss of Phylogenetic Diversity: Conservation Scenarios Based on Estimated Extinction Probabilities and Phylogenetic Risk Analysis

Abstract: New species conservation strategies, including the EDGE of Existence (EDGE) program, have expanded threatened species assessments by integrating information about species' phylogenetic distinctiveness. Distinctiveness has been measured through simple scores that assign shared credit among species for evolutionary heritage represented by the deeper phylogenetic branches. A species with a high score combined with a high extinction probability receives high priority for conservation efforts. Simple hypothetical scenarios for phylogenetic trees and extinction probabilities demonstrate how such scoring approaches can provide inefficient priorities for conservation. An existing probabilistic framework derived from the phylogenetic diversity measure (PD) properly captures the idea of shared responsibility for the persistence of evolutionary history. It avoids static scores, takes into account the status of close relatives through their extinction probabilities, and allows for the necessary updating of priorities in light of changes in species threat status. A hypothetical phylogenetic tree illustrates how changes in extinction probabilities of one or more species translate into changes in expected PD. The probabilistic PD framework provided a range of strategies that moved beyond expected PD to better consider worst‐case PD losses. In another example, risk aversion gave higher priority to a conservation program that provided a smaller, but less risky, gain in expected PD. The EDGE program could continue to promote a list of top species conservation priorities through application of probabilistic PD and simple estimates of current extinction probability. The list might be a dynamic one, with all the priority scores updated as extinction probabilities change. Results of recent studies suggest that estimation of extinction probabilities derived from the red list criteria linked to changes in species range sizes may provide estimated probabilities for many different species. Probabilistic PD provides a framework for single‐species assessment that is well‐integrated with a broader measurement of impacts on PD owing to climate change and other factors.     

Using Citizen Science Programs to Identify Host Resistance in Pest‐Invaded Forests

Abstract: Threats to native forests from non‐native insects and pathogens (pests) are generally addressed with methods such as quarantine, eradication, biological control, and development of resistant stock through hybridization and breeding. In conjunction with such efforts, it may be useful to have citizen scientists locate rare surviving trees that may be naturally pest resistant or tolerant. The degree of resistance of individual trees identified in this way can be tested under controlled conditions, and the most resistant individuals can be integrated into plant breeding programs aimed at developing pest‐resistant native stock. Involving citizen scientists in programs aimed at identifying rare trees that survive colonization by pests provides a low‐cost means of maximizing search efforts across wide geographic regions and may provide an effective supplement to existing management approaches.     

Surfactant 4-nonylphenyl-polyethylene glycol stimulates reactive oxygen species generation and apoptosis in human neuroblastoma cells

The formulation of most pesticides is proprietary and individual components are therefore not generally known. In a preliminary study, we identified six compounds that are often present in pesticides, of which 4-nonylphenyl-polyethylene glycol(NP-40) was found to be the most toxic. In this study, we investigated the toxicity of NP-40 and underlying mechanism in neuronal SK-N-SH cells. Exposure to NP 40 at concentrations higher than60 μmol/L for 24 hr decreased cell viability. The cytotoxicity of NP-40 was time-and concentration-dependent. Nuclear fragmentation and chromatin condensation were apparent starting at 50 μmol/L NP-40, and increased at higher concentrations. The expression of apoptotic factors including p53 and B-cell lymphoma(Bcl)-2-associated X protein was upregulated, while that of the anti-apoptotic marker Bcl-2 was downregulated at 80 μmol/L NP-40. Cytochrome c release was observed from 80 to 100 μmol/L by confocal microscopy. Caspase-9 and-3/7 activities increased according to concentration, and fluorescence-activated cell sorting analysis showed that apoptosis was induced at50 μmol/L and was increased at 80 μmol/L. Our findings indicate that NP-40 stimulates the mitochondrial-mediated apoptosis pathway and reactive oxygen species production in a concentration-dependent manner, and suggest that antioxidant administration may be an effective treatment for patients with acute NP-40 poisoning.     

Winter storm-related injuries in Oklahoma, January 2007

Introduction

A January 2007 ice storm occurred in Oklahoma, causing power outages and hazardous travel conditions. The objective of this investigation was to describe the nature of winter storm-related injuries among Oklahoma residents, to determine populations at risk, and to inform prevention-planning personnel.

Methods

Winter storm-related injuries were a temporarily reportable condition; all acute-care hospitals and the state medical examiner logged storm-related injuries and deaths during January 12 − 30, 2007. Medical records were retrospectively abstracted.Risk of injury was described by demographic group, injury type, and mechanism.

Results

Among 6,047 persons experiencing winter storm-related injuries, 74% were injured in falls, 13% in motor-vehicle collisions (MVCs), 8% while sledding, 1% by unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning, 1% in cleanup activities, and 3% by other mechanisms. Median age of injured persons was 39 years. Persons aged ≥ 40 years were 1.4 times more likely to experience falls as the cause of injury than those aged < 40 years, and falls were twice as likely as other mechanisms to cause fractures among persons aged ≥ 40 years. Injured persons aged < 40 years were 2.2 times more likely to experience MVC-related injuries, and 19 times more likely to experience sledding-related injuries than persons aged ≥ 40 years.

Conclusions

Younger persons were more likely injured in MVCs and sledding incidents, whereas older persons were more likely to experience falls and fractures.

Impact on industry

Prevention messages for winter storm-related injuries should target winter-driving safety tips to younger adults and precautions regarding falls to older adults.     

碟形封头对薄壁内压短圆筒爆破压力的影响

试验研究表明,有足够强度和刚度的碟形封头可提高钢制薄壁内压短圆筒的爆破压力;得到确定Q235-A低碳钢和OCr18Ni9不锈钢制薄壁内压短圆筒爆破压力的经验公式,以及区分内压长、短圆筒的临界长度计算公式.     

基于WiFi的煤矿井下应急救援无线通信系统的研究

随着现代化煤矿的要求及无线通信技术的发展,地面无线通信技术开始应用于煤矿井下通信。本文从煤矿井下灾害环境的特殊性及救援工作的安全性、紧迫性出发,通过分析W iF i短距离无线通信技术,提出了基于W iF i技术建立一种新的煤矿井下应急救援无线通信系统,重点介绍了其原理、硬件设计和软件仿真。该系统在灾后煤矿井下电力供应完全切断的情况下,仍能迅速建立应急救援无线通信链路。该系统基于S3C2410X ARM9硬件平台,硬件设计主要包括采集终端设备和链路路由设备两部分,可实现井下事故现场的环境参数监测、数据实时传输、语音通信等功能。通过NS2离线事件仿真器对系统仿真结果可以看,出该系统的时延小、抖动率低,传输速率随着时间的增加呈现稳定增长趋势,理论上基本满足井下应急救援通信需要,且性能比较稳定。