Complementarity,impatience, and the resilience of natural-resource-dependent economies

We study how society's preferences affect the resilience of economies that depend on more than one type of natural resource. In particular, we analyze whether the degree of complementarity of natural resources in consumer preferences may give rise to multiple steady states and path dependence even when resources are managed optimally. We find that, for a given social discount rate, society tends to be less willing to buffer exogenous shocks if resource good are complements in consumption than if they are substitutes. The stronger the complementarity between the various types of natural resources, the less resilient the economy is, and even more so the higher is the social discount rate.     

尾矿库运行期DADT循环管控技术

为提高尾矿库这一矿山重大危险源安全监管系统化水平,实现数字化安全监管,提出了全寿命周期DADT循环管控技术理论。这项技术首先需要整合管控对象的三维数字化测控成果与调研资料,建立全寿命周期“健康档案”,其次运用DADT循环管控方法,同时耦合相关专业技术,“诊断、分析、设计、治理”管控对象的安全特征要素,发现并解决安全隐患。结合尾矿库自身特点与测控成果,阐述了尾矿库全寿命周期DADT循环管控技术的运行流程。以白马尾矿库为例,在三维点云数据基础上建立实体模型,运用全寿命周期DADT循环管控技术,耦合调洪演算过程,结果表明,尾矿库在后期堆排过程中,库区会出现“封闭水域”,提前发现并科学解决了尾矿库排洪隐患。全寿命周期DADT循环管控技术的运用,克服了以往安全监管对管控对象安全状况系统性掌控的不足,有利于精确处理安全隐患,为数字化安全监管的实现提供了一种全新思路。     

政府层面安全生产规划编制方法和要点探讨

为科学贯彻落实新《安全生产法》“县级以上人民政府应编制安全生产规划”的要求,进一步提高政府安全生产规划编制的质量与水平,针对目前地方政府对安全生产规划编制方法与要点把握不到位、造成规划操作性不强的问题,结合以往政府安全生产规划编制的实践经历,研究提出将政府安全生产规划编制程序归纳为背景分析、框架确定、对策设计、文本起草四大部分,重点探讨了政府层面安全生产规划编制过程中的背景调查、现状评价、趋势分析、规划范围设定、规划原则确定、规划目标与指标体系构建、规划依据查找、措施设计、方案优化论证等环节的实施要求、实施方法和注意事项。研究结果将为各级政府编制好安全生产规划提供有益参考与指导。     

基于偏最小二乘的絮体图像信息与水质的相关性

针对污水处理运行过程COD、BOD5、TN和TP实时测量的问题,提出一种基于絮体形态参数的偏最小二乘法模型.采用图像分析技术对污泥絮体形态特征进行提取,基于相关性从提取的形态参数和试验期间的运行参数中选择模型的输入变量,通过偏最小二乘法建立输入变量与4个水质指标的预测关系模型.结果表明,COD、BOD5、TN、TP的交叉有效性系数分别为0.736、0.682、0.839、0.618,絮体形态参数与水质指标有明显的相关性,可用于预测出水水质.     

Adaptive Management of Flows in the Lower Roanoke River, North Carolina, USA

The lower Roanoke River in North Carolina, USA, has been regulated by a series of dams since the 1950s. This river and its floodplain have been identified by The Nature Conservancy, the US Fish and Wildlife Service, and the State of North Carolina as critical resources for the conservation of bottomland hardwoods and other riparian and in-stream biota and communities. Upstream dams are causing extended floods in the growing season for bottomland hardwood forests, threatening their survival. A coalition of stakeholders including public agencies and private organizations is cooperating with the dam managers to establish an active adaptive management program to reduce the negative impacts of flow regulation, especially extended growing season inundation, on these conservation targets. We introduce the lower Roanoke River, describe the regulatory context for negotiating towards an active adaptive management program, present our conservation objective for bottomland hardwoods, and describe investigations in which we successfully employed a series of models to develop testable management hypotheses. We propose adaptive management strategies that we believe will enable the bottomland hardwoods to regenerate and support their associated biota and that are reasonable, flexible, and economically sustainable.     

地震预报与活断层分段

文章回顾分析了地震预报的经验与问题,对地震短期预报需进行新的探索与研讨,才能更快地前进。文章重点论述了地震预报和地震危险性评估方面有关的断层分段性问题。如何在众多的活断层上确定近期可能发生强震的地段,是地震预报中突出的重要问题之一。有关活断层分段性问题是近年来十分引人注目的课题。段是断层的破裂单元,断层的分段就是对断层进行独立的破裂单元的划分。断层分段有4种,当前讨论的主要是活断层破裂分段。     

山东省旱,涝,地震灾害的时序特征及其相互关系

分析了山东地区历史干旱、洪涝和地震灾害时间分布特征及其相互关系，发现旱涝与地震灾害一样具有不同时间尺度的准周期活动特征，且地震与旱涝具有一定相关关系．如内陆大地震多与干旱活动相继发生，海域地震多发生在洪涝活动时期；破坏性地震前多发生干旱，震后又常有洪涝相随等。进而对山东旱涝活动进行了初步分期。文中还对上述现象的成因作了简单分析。     

某汽油吸附脱硫装置职业病危害调查

介绍了某汽油吸附脱硫装置存在的职业病危害因素类型、分布和检测结果,分析了职业病危害防护措施,提出了补充措施建议。     

Optimal learning on climate change: Why climate skeptics should reduce emissions

Climate skeptics typically argue that the possibility that global warming is exogenous, implies that we should not take additional action towards reducing emissions until we know what drives warming. This paper however shows that even climate skeptics have an incentive to reduce emissions: such a directional change generates information on the causes of global warming. Since the optimal policy depends upon these causes, they are valuable to know. Although increasing emissions would also generate information, that option is inferior due its irreversibility. We show that optimality can even imply that climate skeptics should actually argue for lower emissions than believers.     

污染源减排时刻和减排比例对北京市PM_(2.5)浓度的影响

利用Model-3/CMAQ及京津冀地区高分辨率排放源清单,选取文献[19]中污染峰值当天启动50%污染源削减方案的同时,进一步设置了3种污染源控制方案(峰值当天启动75%源削减;峰值日前1d、2d开始启动25%源削减),比较了峰值日前启动适量减排与峰值日当天启动大幅度减排的效果差异.结果表明:污染峰值当天启动50%、75%减排时,北京市PM2.5浓度下降率分布不均匀,高值区集中于PM2.5浓度高值区,减排后PM2.5浓度分布较减排前均匀.提前1~2d启动25%源削减时,峰值日北京市PM2.5浓度整体下降.城、郊PM2.5下降率均表现为当天减排50%小于提前1d开始减排25%;当天启动减排提高到75%时,城区PM2.5下降率大于提前2d启动25%减排,郊区表现为峰值前2d启动25%削减优于当天减排75%.将峰值前1d、2d启动25%减排分别与当天启动50%、75%减排时北京市峰值日PM2.5浓度下降率相减,北京市绝大部分区域下降率差值为正;峰值前1d、2d启动25%减排分别比峰值日启动50%、75%减排时北京市平均PM2.5多下降4.7μg/m3(6%)、2.9μg/m3(4%).综上所述,在污染峰值来临之前采取适量减排较污染当天才启动大幅度减排更有利于北京市整体空气质量达标.