基于多元随机效应Wiener过程的某弹用弹簧可靠性评估

目的 解决某弹用弹簧可靠性评估中存在的不确定性问题。方法 对某弹用弹簧进行加速退化试验,试验过程中发现其具有多个性能退化参数,并且其退化过程具有非线性、随机性及样本差异性的特征。为了对其退化过程进行数学表征,提出一种基于多元随机效应Wiener过程的退化模型。采用基于时间尺度变换的非线性Wiener过程,描述弹簧退化过程中的非线性与随机性。基于随机效应模型,对样本的差异性进行表征,利用Copula函数描述多元性能参数之间的相互作用关系。最后推导弹簧失效寿命的概率密度函数、可靠度函数。结果 在贮存条件为25 ℃、可靠度为0.9时,基于构建的多元随机效应Wiener过程模型,当考虑性能间的相关性时,得到某弹用弹簧的贮存寿命为12 a;不考虑性能间的相关性时,得到其贮存寿命为11.5 a。结论 构建的多元随机退化模型为该弹药健康状态管理提供了相应的理论依据。     

Modelling individual preferences for environmental policy drivers: Empirical evidence of Italian lifestyle changes using a latent class approach

Degraded air quality severely affects the health of citizens worldwide. The design of effective policies requires exploring public preferences for environmental and air quality policy instruments. Within the EC-FP7 SEFIRA project, using a choice experiment that stresses the trade-offs between attributes, this study investigates public preferences for environmental policy drivers in Italy. The main objective is to investigate the role played by selected policy drivers in determining policy preferences, complemented by elasticity and willingness to pay estimations. Preference heterogeneity and the role of socio-economic and attitudinal variables are explored with a latent class model over 2400 respondents sampled across Italy. The results allow identifying the different role played by the policy drivers across the classes. It emerged that most of the respondents (43%) are particularly sensitive to the cost components (cost sensitive respondents). The remaining respondents instead show an important sensitivity towards personal engagement in term of changes in the mobility and eating habits (lifestyle-change sensitive respondents). However, while 29% of them perceive these habits’ changes as negatively impacting on the personal utility, the other 28% of respondents translate the potential changes in the habitual behaviour of driving and eating as environmental and health benefits. Based on the modelling results, potential policies are simulated reporting respondents’ reaction to selected scenarios. It shows the crucial role played by reduction of premature deaths due to atmospheric pollution and measure cost.     

Air pollution characteristics and their relationship with emissions and meteorology in the Yangtze River Delta region during 2014–2016

With rapid economic growth and urbanization, the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region in China has experienced serious air pollution challenges. In this study, we analyzed the air pollution characteristics and their relationship with emissions and meteorology in the YRD region during 2014–2016. In recent years, the concentrations of all air pollutants, except O_3,decreased. Spatially, the PM_(2.5), PM_(10), SO_2, and CO concentrations were higher in the northern YRD region, and NO_2 and O_3 were higher in the central YRD region. Based on the number of non-attainment days(i.e., days with air quality index greater than 100), PM_(2.5) was the largest contributor to air pollution in the YRD region, followed by O_3, PM_(10), and NO_2.However, particulate matter pollution has declined gradually, while O_3 pollution worsened.Meteorological conditions mainly influenced day-to-day variations in pollutant concentrations. PM_(2.5) concentration was inversely related to wind speed, while O_3 concentration was positively correlated with temperature and negatively correlated with relative humidity.The air quality improvement in recent years was mainly attributed to emission reductions.During 2014–2016, PM_(2.5), PM_(10), SO_2, NO_x, CO, NH_3, and volatile organic compound(VOC)emissions in the YRD region were reduced by 26.3%, 29.2%, 32.4%, 8.1%, 15.9%, 4.5%, and0.3%, respectively. Regional transport also contributed to the air pollution. During regional haze periods, pollutants from North China and East China aggravated the pollution in the YRD region. Our findings suggest that emission reduction and regional joint prevention and control helped to improve the air quality in the YRD region.     

Effect of air masses motion on the rapid change of aerosols in marine atmosphere

The impact of air masses motion on marine aerosol properties was investigated using an on-board single particle mass spectrometer(SPAMS) deployed for the determination of single particle size resolved chemical composition over Southeast China Sea. Two aerosol blooms(E1 and E2) were observed during the cruise. High average particle number count occurred in E1(7320), followed by E2(5850), which was more than 100–150 times of the average particle number count during normal periods. Particles were classified as four major sources, including continental source, shipping source, marine source, and transport source based on the mass spectral similarity. Transport source was identified as those particles with high particle number count occurred only during aerosol bloom period. Three sub-types of EC-Ca, OC-Ca, and Al-rich were classified as transport source.EC-Ca was the dominant particles of the transport source, accounting for more than 70%of the total particles in aerosol bloom events. A uni-modal size distribution in the size range of 0.1–2.0 μm was observed during normal period, while a bimodal distribution with a tiny mode(0.3 μm) and a coarse mode between 0.4 and 0.6 μm was present during aerosol bloom. The variation of aerosol source is consistent with air masses back trajectories, for the reason that most of the long-range air trajectories are from the ocean,while short air trajectories originate in the continental regions, which means that air masses have a significant impact on the aerosol physical–chemical properties along their tracks.     

Air pollution and young children's inhalation exposure to organophosphorus pesticide in an agricultural community in Japan

Assessment of airborne organophosphorus pesticides in houses of young children (1-6 years old) and childcare facilities was conducted following pesticide applications in an agricultural community in Japan. Trichlorfon and fenitrothion, applied in two separate periods, were frequently detected from outdoor and indoor air. Dichlorvos, the primary degradation product of trichlorfon, was also detected after the application of trichlorfon. Both the outdoors and indoor concentration of applied pesticide were shown to increase with decreasing distance from the pesticide-applied farm. Indoor concentration of these pesticides significantly correlated with outdoor concentration (p=0.001 for trichlorfon and p=0.001 for fenitrothion), indicating infiltration of applied pesticide inside. Ratio of indoor to outdoor concentration (I/O ratio) of fenitrothion was higher for houses with windows open during the application than those with closed windows (median value: 0.74 vs. 0.16, p=0.003). However, a similar trend was not observed for trichlorfon as well as dichlorvos in the first period. Dichlorvos was found to have a higher I/O ratio than trichlorfon during the period, and clear correlation between indoor concentrations of dichlorvos and those of trichlorfon suggested increased decomposition of trichlorfon in the indoor environment. Daily inhalation exposure estimated by using the fixed measurement data and time-activity questionnaire ranged from 0 to 35 ng/kg/day for trichlorfon, from 0 to 26 ng/kg/day for dichlorvos, and from 0 to 44 ng/kg/day for fenitrothion. Median inhalation exposure from indoor air accounted for 74%, 86.3%, and 45% of the daily inhalation exposure, respectively. For kindergarteners or nursery school children, inhalation exposure at childcare facilities was comparable with or more than that at home, indicating that pollution level at childcare facilities had potential of high impact on children's exposure. Estimated daily inhalation exposures were inversely correlated to the proximity of their activity location to the pesticide-applied farm.     

丰镇发电厂送风系统噪声原因分析及降噪研究

振动和噪声普遍存在于火电厂锅炉送风系统中 ,是电厂噪声污染的一个重要来源 ,严重影响电厂安全、经济、文明运行。有效地降低送风系统的振动和噪声是火电厂急需解决的问题。笔者针对丰镇火电厂送风系统结构和运行参数 ,对由此产生的噪声进行了细致的测量 ,分析了产生振动和噪声的原因 ,认为送风机蜗舌处产生的气动噪声和管道二次涡流是引发送风系统振动和噪声的主要原因。根据产生振动和噪声的原因 ,并结合电厂要求 ,进行了技术改造即在直管中安装栅格网及弯管处安装导流栅以消除局部涡流。技术改造方案实施后经测量的结果表明 ,冷风道的噪声下降了 7～ 1 6dB ,明显降低了送风系统的振动和噪声。     

两种掺气水流的计算模型比较

在污水压力输送管道中，污水中气体的存在会影响液体的流动，以污水管中的气、液相流为研究对象，运用集中空穴模型（气泡离散分布模型）和均匀分布模型两种计算方法，来研究停泵水锤过程的压力和流速的变化趋势，实例计算结果表，在设有止回阀的水锤现象中，利用离散分布模型所得的最高水位要比利用均匀分布模型的计算值高，在不设止回阀的水锤现象中，两者的结构基本保持一致。均匀分布模型假定气体在水中呈均匀分布，因此在计算断面上的气体量变化不如离散分布模型来得剧烈，其水位正峰值比离散分布模型低，负峰值比离散分布模型高。     

Vapour pressures, aqueous solubility, Henry's law constants and air/water partition coefficients of 1,8-dichlorooctane and 1,8-dibromooctane

New data on the vapour pressures and aqueous solubility of 1,8-dichlorooctane and 1,8-dibromooctane are reported as a function of temperature between 20 °C and 80 °C and 1 °C and 40 °C, respectively. For the vapour pressures, a static method was used during the measurements which have an estimated uncertainty between 3% and 5%. The aqueous solubilities were determined using a dynamic saturation column method and the values are accurate to within ±10%. 1,8-Dichlorooctane is more volatile than 1,8-dibromooctane in the temperature range covered (p_sat varies from 3 to 250 Pa and from 0.53 to 62 Pa, respectively) and is also approximately three times more soluble in water (mole fraction solubilities at 25 °C of 5.95 × 10⁻⁷ and 1.92 × 10⁻⁷, respectively). A combination of the two sets of data allowed the calculation of the Henry’s law constants and the air water partition coefficients. A simple group contribution concept was used to rationalize the data obtained.     

天然气应用对兰州大气环境的影响

煤烟型污染是兰州市大气污染严重的主要原因之一，西气东输工程对改变兰州市能源结构，改善城市环境质量具有非常重要的意义。根据兰州市大气污染现状和特性，以2000年为基准，分析研究了兰州市利用天然气前后能源结构，主要污染源及大气污染物排放量的变化。针对污染源状况和兰州市天然气用气规划，选用适宜模式预测了兰州市利用天然气后的各主要污染物的年平均浓度，计算了空气质量的改善程度。