Non-renewable resource prices: Deterministic or stochastic trends?

In this paper, we examine temporal properties of 11 natural resource real price series from 1870 to 1990. Recent studies by Ahrens and Sharma [Trends in natural resource commodity prices: deterministic or stochastic? J. Environ. Econom. Manage. 33(1997)59–74], Berck and Roberts [Natural resource prices: will they ever turn up? J. Environ. Econom. Manage. 31(1996)65–78], and Slade [Grade selection under uncertainty: least cost last and other anomalies, J. Environ. Econom. Manage. 15(1988)189–205], among others, find that many non-renewable resource prices have a stochastic trend. We revisit this issue by employing a Lagrangian multiplier unit root test that allows for two endogenously determined structural breaks with and without a quadratic trend. Contrary to previous research, we find evidence against the unit root hypothesis for all price series. Our findings support characterizing natural resource prices as stationary around deterministic trends with structural breaks. We additionally show that both pre-testing for unit roots with breaks and allowing for breaks in the forecast model can improve forecast accuracy. Overall, the results in this paper are important in both a positive and normative sense; without an appropriate understanding of the dynamics of a time series, empirical verification of theories, forecasting, and proper inference are potentially fruitless.     

三维电极法深度处理维生素生产废水

采用三维电极法对维生素废水进行深度处理,分别以钛涂钌铱板、铁板和不锈钢板作为电极阳极,石墨板作为电极阴极,柱状活性炭作为粒子电极,结果表明,当以钛涂钌铱板作为阳极,以粒径为1 mm的柱状活性炭作为粒子电极时电解效果最好,COD和色度去除率最高。实验选择电解电压、电极板间距、电解时间和初始pH值作为主要影响因素进行正交实验,实验研究证明,各因素的影响大小为电解电压>电极板间距>电解时间>初始pH值,得到的最佳参数组合分别为:电解电压为10 V,电极板间距为8 cm,电解时间为20 min,初始pH值为4,得到COD和色度最大去除率分别为59.5%和93.57%。     

发光细菌法在水质综合毒性在线检测中的应用

以海洋发光细菌费氏弧菌（Vibriofischeri）作为检测生物,采用冻干菌粉快速复苏技术,研究费氏弧菌在水质检测中的最佳测试温度和有效性测试条件,并对硫酸锌等多种毒物和几种实际水样进行发光抑制作用分析。研究表明,费氏弧菌冻干粉复苏菌液保存在2～5℃条件下能有效测试7d,最佳测试温度为15℃,最佳测试时间为15min。氯化汞、硫酸锌、硫酸镉等重金属和苯胺、多菌灵、甲醛等有机毒物对费氏弧菌均具有较强的光抑制作用,也即费氏弧菌对以上毒物较为敏感,并能够连续7d保持对同一浓度硫酸锌的敏感性较为一致。对几种实际水样的测试和分析表明,以费氏弧菌为指示生物的发光细菌法能够应用于水质环境安全的综合毒性在线监测预警中。     

铜管模拟输配系统中氯胺衰减过程与模拟

研究了氯胺在铜管模拟输配系统中的衰减过程,并利用一级反应动力学模型对氯胺衰减规律进行了模拟;考察了pH、初始氯胺浓度等水质条件与流速等水力条件对氯胺衰减速率的影响.结果表明,pH值是影响氯胺衰减速率与金属铜溶出的重要因素,pH越低氯胺衰减越快;提高氯胺初始浓度可加快氯胺衰减速度,也可增加金属铜的溶出量;流速对氯胺衰减速率的影响不大.此外,衰减动力学过程模拟结果表明,采用一级反应动力学模型可以较好地拟合不同条件下的氯胺衰减规律.从而对于工程中不同条件下消毒剂浓度预测具有重要意义.     

Zr掺杂TiO_2介孔材料光催化降解头孢氨苄

采用固相合成法制备了Zr掺杂TiO_2(Zr-TiO_2),运用XRD技术对其进行了表征,并将其用于水中头孢氨苄的光催化降解,通过单因素实验及正交实验优化了光催化反应条件。结果表明:制备的Zr-TiO_2为锐钛矿型介孔材料,孔径约为8.12 nm;各因素对头孢氨苄去除率的影响由大到小依次为光照时间、Zr-TiO_2投加量、初始头孢氨苄质量浓度;在Zr-TiO_2投加量为1.5 g/L、初始头孢氨苄质量浓度为10 mg/L、溶液pH为7.0、光照(300 W UV)时间为1.5 h的优化条件下,头孢氨苄去除率高达99.46%;Zr-TiO_2光催化剂的重复使用性能良好。     

Study on Fish and Amphibian Embryo-Larval Toxicity Test

In China, it is necessary to establish short-term biomonitoring methods for evaluating the chronic toxicity of industrial wastewater. In this paper, the aquatic toxicity of four important pollutants in petrochemical wastewater, including acrylonitrile, acetonitrile, sulphocyanic sodium and dimethyl formamide, was studied with fish and amphibian embryo-larval toxicity tests using Cyprinus carpio and Rana nigromaculata as test organisms. The objective is to present some useful data for establishing short-term chronic toxicity test methods used to perform biomonitoring in China. The results indicate that the chronic toxicity of acrylonitrile to fish and amphibians was the highest of the four test pollutants, followed by NaSCN, acetonitrile and DMF. The sensitivity of the carp embryo- larval test to chemicals was greater than that of the R. nigromaculata embryo-larval test.     

用蚕豆根尖细胞微核技术检测乌鲁木齐河水质

应用蚕豆根尖细胞微核技术对乌鲁木齐水质进行检测,测定各样点水样诱导的蚕豆根尖微核千分率及综合污染指数,并进行Ｆ检验,结果表明,各样点ＭＣＮ‰有显著性差异,２０个样点中有１１个样点 的综合污染指数大于２,４个样点水样的综合污染指数大于３．５,和对照组相比有显著差异。所获得数据表明乌鲁木齐河水质受到较为了严重的致突变性污染。     

Mathematical Modeling of Column and Field Dense Nonaqueous Phase Liquid Tracer Tests

Mathematical models for the simulation of dense nonaqueous phase liquid tracer tests (DTTs) in laboratory columns and in the field are developed and examined. The DTT technique is a means of estimating the quantity of dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) in a domain of interest in an aquifer. The two-dimensional field DTT model uses the Method of Principal Directions and an asymmetrical upwind algorithm for describing advective transport. Both models include diffusion transport of tracer into and from low-permeability porous structures such as clay lenses, as well as the mass transport kinetics of partitioning tracer to and from the DNAPL droplets. The dependence of the effluent tracer concentration curves on the parameters of the models is explored, and conclusions are drawn regarding the applicability of, and several possible problems with, the DTT technique. Model results indicate that the DTT performs well at locating distributed droplets of DNAPL, but is unlikely to be useful in the assessment of pooled DNAPL.     

用Ames试验检测水源水和自来水中的遗传毒性

用微伤寒沙门氏菌／哺乳动物微粒体酶系的Ａｍａｅｓ试验,研究了不同季节物水源水及管网自来水中的遗传毒性,以ＸＡＤ２树脂为吸附剂,以丙酮－甲醇的混合液为洗脱液,浓率水样中的有机物,并对部分阳性水样进行有机成分的定性分析。结果发现：１３个水样中有７个样品在淡需要代谢活化系统Ｓ９的情况下,可诱导鼠伤寒沙门氏菌碱基移码型菌株的回复突变;不同水样在不同季节不同的诱导作用;同时通过ＧＣ／ＭＳ方法分析,发现阳性水     

可靠性增长摸底试验方法研究分析

介绍了可靠性增长摸底试验方法的适用范围,对其试验对象进行了探讨,并对如何确定最佳试验时间的两种方法进行了研究.分析指出试验应力的选取也是影响可靠性增长摸底试验效果的关键因素,并用具体试验方案举例说明其有效性,证明了开展可靠性增长摸底试验这项工作可达到快速有效、节约经费的作用.