A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

An optimal level of dust explosion risk management: Framework and application

The current research provides guidance on the prevention and mitigation of dust explosion using a Quantitative Risk Management Framework (QRMF). Using concepts drawn from previous studies, the framework consists of three main steps: (i) a new combined safety management protocol, (ii) the use of DESC (Dust Explosion Simulation Code) and FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) to assess explosion consequences and likelihood, respectively, and (iii) application of the hierarchy of controls (inherent, engineered and procedural safety). QRMF assessment of an industrial case study showed that the original process was at high risk. DESC simulations and Probit equations determined the destructive percentages. FTAs revealed high probabilities of explosion occurrence; in addition, detailed individual and societal risks calculations were made, before and after the framework was applied. Based on the hierarchy of controls technique, the framework showed significant risk reduction to the point where the residual risk was acceptable for the process.     

我国不同区域玉米施肥的生命周期评价

以吉林、陕西、河南、湖南、广西等玉米主产省份为例,以生产1t玉米为评价的功能单元,应用生命周期评价(LCA)方法,比较了不同生态区玉米生产过程中施肥的资源环境影响潜力.结果表明,五省环境影响综合指数大小依次为广西0.315、湖南0.309、河南0.273、陕西0.238、吉林0.183.几种资源环境影响中,潜力大小依次是富营养化、环境酸化、温室效应、土地利用和能源消耗,其中,施用氮肥引起的氨挥发是导致富营养化和酸化的主要原因.农户间玉米施肥的资源环境影响潜力差异很大,环境影响综合指数变异范围在41.2%～81.6%之间,且以湖南省最高,吉林省最低.如果将玉米追肥由撒施都改为穴施,五省的环境影响综合指数将降低8.5%～34.1%.总体而言,在目前生产条件下,吉林省具有资源环境影响较低的优势;富营养化是最主要的环境影响类型,而改进施肥方式、减少氨挥发是降低玉米施肥资源环境影响的关键技术途径.     

水源水库贫营养好氧反硝化菌群脱氮特性研究

为削减微污染水库中氮素的浓度,通过对西安市李家河水库沉积物进行定向富集驯化,筛选出以Pseudomonas菌为主、具有高效好氧反硝化特性的混合菌群-A1.摇床实验表明,贫营养好氧反硝化菌群A1在15h时硝酸盐氮去除率可达93.39%,硝酸盐氮平均去除速率为0.2073mg/（L·h）;总氮去除率为52.11%,总氮平均去除速率为0.1153mg/（L·h）,无亚硝酸盐积累.氮平衡分析表明,约45%的初始氮被去除转化为气体产物.响应面法（RSM）结果表明,C/N比9.96,温度22.67℃,pH8.01,转速91r/min,溶解氧8.55mg/L是去除总氮（TN）的最优条件.     

Bottom up and top down: analysis of participatory processes for sustainability indicator identification as a pathway to community empowerment and sustainable environmental management

The modern environmental management literature stresses the need for community involvement to identify indicators to monitor progress towards sustainable development and environmental management goals. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of participatory processes on sustainability indicator identification and environmental management in three disparate case studies. The first is a process of developing partnerships between First Nations communities, environmental groups, and forestry companies to resolve conflicts over forest management in Western Canada. The second describes a situation in Botswana where local pastoral communities worked with development researchers to reduce desertification. The third case study details an on-going government led process of developing sustainability indicators in Guernsey, UK, that was designed to monitor the environmental, social, and economic impacts of changes in the economy. The comparative assessment between case studies allows us to draw three primary conclusions. (1) The identification and collection of sustainability indicators not only provide valuable databases for making management decisions, but the process of engaging people to select indicators also provides an opportunity for community empowerment that conventional development approaches have failed to provide. (2) Multi-stakeholder processes must formally feed into decision-making forums or they risk being viewed as irrelevant by policy-makers and stakeholders. (3) Since ecological boundaries rarely meet up with political jurisdictions, it is necessary to be flexible when choosing the scale at which monitoring and decision-making occurs. This requires an awareness of major environmental pathways that run through landscapes to understand how seemingly remote areas may be connected in ways that are not immediately apparent.     

Studies on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in two sediment cores from the huaxi reservoir,china: Assessment of levels,sources, and ecological risk

This study investigated the levels, sources and ecological risks of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in two sediment cores that were collected along the Huaxi Reservoir. The spatial distributions and residue levels of the 16 priority PAHs in the sediments from the Huaxi Reservoir were analyzed for their potential ecological risk, source apportionment and contribution to the total PAH residue. The concentration level of the total PAHs (TPAHs) was in the range 1805 ng·g^?1 to 20023 ng·g^?1 based on dry weight, and the content of PAHs in the Huaxi Reservoir exhibited a gradual upward trend. The PAH congener ratios fluoranthene/(fluoranthene + pyrene) and indeno[1, 2, 3-cd]pyrene/(indeno[1, 2, 3-cd]pyrene + benzo[g, h, i]perylene) were used to identify the source. The main source of the low molecular weight PAHs was wood and coal combustion, whereas the high molecular weight PAHs were primarily from petroleum combustion sources. The results of an ecological risk assessment demonstrated that ACE poses a potential ecological risk, while FLU, NAP, ANT, BaP, DBA, PHEN and PYR can have serious ecological risks.     

一种基于预测法的电磁兼容设计方法

文章以数模混合电路设计实践为基础,介绍了一种基于预测法的电磁兼容设计方法。先以电磁兼容测试理论为基础介绍数模混合电路设计中的电磁兼容方法,在以此方法建立电磁兼容设计模型,并通数模混合电路实践来检验和改进设计模型。     

用大型底栖动物对武汉南湖水质的生物学评价

2003年6月至2004年5月季度性调查武汉南湖大型底栖动物的种类组成,并对水质理化指标进行测定.结果表明,大型底栖动物由寡毛类和水生昆虫组成,密度为4 437个/m2,优势种为霍甫水丝蚓和刺铗长足摇蚊;大型底栖动物的Shannon-Wiener多样性指数和Margelef多样性指数表明南湖水质为中等污染状态;历年夏季水体中主要营养元素含量的变化,进一步描述了近年来南湖富营养化的加剧进程.     

三峡水库135 m蓄水前后水体重金属环境健康风险评价

三峡水库135 m蓄水后,水体中各重金属的单因子污染指数和Nemerow综合污染指数均有不同程度的增大,特别是Pb污染应该引起重视.健康风险评价结果表明,成库前后非致癌有毒化学物质(Hg、Pb和Cu)所引起的健康危害的个人年风险为Pb＞Cu＞Hg,致癌物质对人体健康危害的个人年风险均大于非致癌物.各类污染物所致个人平均健康危害成库前后均低于国际辐射防护委员会(ICRP)推荐的标准,为可接受水平.     

海洋环境污染监测方案设计研究

海洋环境污染监测方案是一项复杂的系统工程。中国经过２０多年海洋环境污好监测的实践活动，积累了丰富的经验。但是，由于未能对海洋环境污染监测方案进行深入细致的研讨，致使今天我国海洋环境污染监测尚停留在定性或半定量描述阶段。该文第一次把有关海洋环境污染监测相结合，通过运用逻辑构思方法和监测方法学，详细分析监测方案设计中的各个阶段，监测目标的提出，到方案的实施；从监测数据的加工，到监测信息的发布都进行了辩证的分析。本文既是中国海洋环境污染监测方案的设计指南，也是中国海洋环境污染监测工作的集大成。