Pre-evacuation path planning in chemicals-concentrated areas with risk assessment and individual character analysis

With the ever-increasing development of those chemical parks (concentrated areas), the inherent hazards may remain the major leading cause of serious casualties, causing dramatic increases in deaths and injuries. Despite this, proper path beforehand can effectively minimise the number of deaths or injured. In this study, in order to better address the aforesaid issue, the pre-evacuation path planning was adopted to do so. This method can serve to prepare emergency response in case of extreme events, such as fires, explosions, or dangerous leakages, because these accidents could happen in chemical parks (concentrated areas). To that end, a framework was therefore proposed. First, the general risk representation was conducted. After the main hazards as well as the vulnerability within the facilities was identified, the interaction between those two factors could be expressed with matrices. This was followed by the analysis of the domino effect, which tends to occur under such circumstances. Second, individuals' visibility and inclination at each location to choose the nearest exit gate or shelter zone were analyzed by space syntax analysis. Third, a weighted risk map mainly composed of risk, individual's visibility, and inclination of exits was therefore generated. And the lowest cumulative risk path was simulated and analyzed accordingly. Finally, the map modified with received risks suggests that each individual's safest route from their current locations can be possibly simulated with Dijkstra's algorithm, which corresponds to the lowest cumulative risk. For the purposes of illustration and validation, a real case was adopted. The results demonstrated that this framework could provide both technical and theoretical support for the pre-evacuation path planning in chemicals-concentrated areas like chemicals-concentrated areas.     

我国现行大气环境影响评价预测模型的若干问题及其改进

我国现行大气环境影响预测评价模型存在以下几个问题:大气混合层高度求算偏低;稳定条件下大气扩散计算结果不合理;模型未考虑非扩散因素影响(干湿沉积、化学转化);非正常排放模型在小风、静风条件下计算结果偏大;熏烟模型计算的不可操作性等。本文针对这些问题提出相应的改进方法,并进行了实例计算。     

Investigating factors influencing drivers' speed selection behavior under reduced visibility conditions

Objective: Driving speed is a major concern for driving safety under reduced visibility conditions. Many factors affect speed selection in low visibility, but few studies have been conducted examining drivers' characteristics, particularly in China. The present study aimed to investigate the correlation between drivers' demographic information, driving ability, and speed choice in low-visibility conditions using a sample of Chinese drivers.

Methods: A self-designed driving ability scale was used to assess driving ability in reduced visibility conditions. The reliability and validity of 306 gathered questionnaires were examined in this article, and a structural equation model (SEM) was built to explore the predictors of drivers' speed selection behavior under reduced visibility conditions and to measure the relationships between various factors.

Results: Age and driving experience have no direct relationship to speed selection behavior in reduced visibility, but the frequency of using expressways and annual mileage are significantly related to the speed on roads that have a speed restriction of 80 or 120 km/h. Under reduced visibility conditions, driving ability has a significant effect on speed selection behavior, and driving skill (DS) is the most influential on speed selection behavior on roads with a speed limit of 120 km/h; otherwise, the effect of risk perception (RP) does not differ by speed choice on 3 roads with different speed limits. Driving speed in good weather also has a positive influence on speed selection behavior in low visibility.

Conclusion: Driving ability is directly associated with speed selection in reduced visibility conditions, and some demographic data indirectly influence speed selection. This study provides useful recommendations for drivers' training programs to reduce casualties from accidents in low-visibility conditions.     

沙尘天气发生频率对大气能见度方差的影响研究:以北京及其沙尘过往路径典型站点为例

利用1971～2000年北京及其沙尘过往路径典型站点日能见度和各种沙尘天气发生日资料,分析了沙尘天气发生频率与能见度方差的关系.发现当沙尘天气频率减少(增加)1次时,能见度方差就偏强(偏弱)1个标准差.沙尘天气发生频率对日能见度变率的影响主要是通过风速的高频变率实现的,当风速变率偏强(偏弱)1个标准差时,沙尘天气发生频率增强(减弱)约30%,近地面风场的高频变率影响了沙尘天气的产生,从而影响日能见度方差的波动.异常低能见度事件(日能见度距平<-2σ,σ为各站各日能见度距平的标准差)频次与能见度方差之间存在显著的正相关性.风速距平频次增加,使得沙尘天气发生频次增加,从而导致低能见度事件频次上升;反之,异常低能见度事件下降.浮尘、沙尘暴和扬沙与低能见度事件的相关程度是不同的.     

CALRoads模式在上海市典型道路CO扩散预测中的应用

根据上海市市区、郊区典型主干道的气象条件、车流量、车型比例,以及CO小时质量浓度的监测资料,采用CALRoads模式中CALINE4和CAL3QHC模块,对郊区主干道和市区典型路口的适用条件分别进行了验证.结果表明,在稳定的气象条件下,CALINE4模式在模拟周围相对空旷主干道附近的CO质量浓度时,具有较好的结果,将CAL3QHC模式应用于市区典型交叉口,可以得到同监测值相对吻合的模拟结果,但准确性低于郊区.应用CALRoads模型对未来城郊典型道路附近CO高峰小时质量浓度的发展趋势进行了预测,并基于情景分析给出了减少交通污染的对策建议.     

典型学生人群对疏散指示反应特性的初步研究

本文针对典型学生人群对疏散指示的反应特性开展了初步的实验,分析了试验者给出的能见度主观评价（主观能见度）的统计结果,得出了影响主观能见度的因素：疏散指示的亮度、大小和颜色。与统计实验同步使用固定增益、自动光圈、手动调焦的CCD摄像机获取了距疏散指示不同距离的场景,结合图像处理的方法实验获得了疏散指示的亮度、对比度信息。基于此,并考虑疏散指示大小和颜色对能见度的影响,提出了一种主观能见度评价的心理模型,较好地符合了统计实验结果,可以用来评价疏散指示主观能见度。     

Quantitative relationship between visibility and mass concentration of PM2.5 in Beijing

The pollution of particulate matter less than 2.5μm （PM2.5） is a serious environmental problem in Beijing. The annual average concentration of PM2.5 in 2001 from seasonal monitor results was more than 6 times that of the U,S, national ambient air quality standards proposed by U.S. EPA. The major contributors to mass of PM2.5 were organics, crustal elements and sulfate. The chemical composition of PM2.5 varied largely with season, but was similar at different monitor stations in the same season. The fine particles （PM2.5） cause atmospheric visibility deterioration through light extinction, The mass concentrations of PM2.5 were anti-correlated to the visibility, the best fits between atmospheric visibility and the mass concentrations of PM2.5 were somehow different： power in spring, exponential in summer, logarithmic in autumn, power or exponential in winter. As in each season the meteorological parameters such as air temperature and relative humidity change from day to day, probably the reason of above correlations between PM2.5 and visibility obtained at different seasons come from the differences in chemical compositions of PM2.5.     

北京市大气和降雨中醛酮化合物的污染研究

2005年6月到2005年8月在北京市区采用2,4-二硝基苯肼HPLC法测定了大气和降水中的醛酮类化合物.结果表明,大气醛酮类化合物中以丙酮的浓度最高,其次是甲醛、乙醛和丙醛,浓度分别是22.14、19.51、17.18、3.85μg·m-3,这4种化合物占大气醛酮总量的84.7%.分析大气中醛酮化合物浓度,结果表明,北京醛酮化合物污染主要来自人为源,并且甲醛、乙醛和丙醛具有相似的源和汇.通过对比晴朗和多云天气条件对醛酮浓度日变化的影响可知,夏季光化学反应是大气中醛酮的重要源.夏季降雨对大气中醛酮化合物浓度影响明显,降雨前后大气中醛酮污染物浓度日变化的对比研究说明,湿沉降是大气中醛酮污染物的重要汇.同时检测出雨水中含11种醛酮化合物,其中甲醛浓度最高为166.3μg·L-1,乙醛浓度为43.63μg·L-1,丙酮浓度为34.33μg·L-1.     

太湖氮磷大气干湿沉降时空特征

为了探索太湖氮磷营养盐干湿沉降特征及对太湖营养盐输入的贡献,于2011年不同季节采集太湖不同位点的大气干湿沉降样品,分析干湿沉降中氮（N）和磷（P）的形态和沉降量。研究结果表明,输入太湖的磷以干沉降为主,而氮以湿沉降为主。在太湖干沉降中总无机氮（TIN）占总氮（TN）的77.1%,溶解性磷（DIP）占总磷（TP）的77.9%。干沉降中TIN主要以NH+4-N为主。西太湖是TN与TP通过大气干湿沉降输入太湖的最高湖区。太湖全年大气TN沉降总量为20 978 t,TP沉降总量为1 268 t,因此,氮磷大气干湿沉降是太湖营养盐输入的重要来源之一。     

Temporal changes of 7Be, 137Cs and 210Pb activity concentrations in surface air at Monaco and their correlation with meteorological parameters

Results of analysis of ⁷Be, ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb on aerosol filters carried out from 1998 to 2010 in Monaco show that a weak correlation between activity concentrations of these radionuclides in the atmosphere and meteorological parameters has been found for ⁷Be and temperature (r = 0.50), ²¹⁰Pb and temperature and humidity (r = 0.43 and 0.41, respectively), and ¹³⁷Cs and precipitation (r = 0.51). The minimum and maximum ⁷Be activity concentrations were observed during 2000 and 2009, corresponding with the maximum and minimum solar activity, respectively. The maximum ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration found in May-June 1998 was due to the accident at Algeciras in Spain. The deposition velocities of ⁷Be, ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb depended on the precipitation rate, and attained maximum values during dry seasons. The investigated radionuclides may be used as atmospheric tracers, especially in long-term periods.