Dispersion of the vapour cloud in the Buncefield Incident

Dispersion of the flammable vapour cloud in the 2005 Buncefield Incident is examined. Footage from security cameras around the site is analysed and the results from Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations of the vapour dispersion are presented. It is shown that the shape of the terrain and the presence of obstacles significantly affected the dispersion of vapour from the overflowing tank. The CFD model is shown to produce similar qualitative behaviour to that observed in the incident, both in terms of the arrival time of the vapour cloud and its final depth.     

The TNO multi-energy method combined to mathematical programming and computational fluid dynamics for optimisation of gas detectors

Gas leakage is a matter of concern for several industries such as oil and gas, mining, food, and healthcare. When the industry considers gas detectors, the main questions are: How many gas detectors are required? Where is the best location to install them? To answer these questions Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations and optimisation procedures are employed to calculate the plume location and plume volume to better position the gas detectors. We investigated how the optimisation cell size for the set covering problem can be calculated based on a given explosion overpressure threshold. Resorted by the multi-energy explosion model, we calculate the flammable cloud volume associated with a pre-defined overpressure value. The cloud volume is applied in the solution of the set covering problem and an optimal set for the gas detectors is obtained. The final gas detector network (number and location of the devices) is validated against CFD simulations for small releases. The results provide evidence that the optimal gas detector networks is able to detect gas leaks within a feasible time.     

Elite cues,media coverage,and public concern: an integrated path analysis of public opinion on climate change, 2001–2013

To analyze the factors affecting US public concern about the threat of climate change between January 2002 and December 2013, data from 74 separate surveys are used to construct quarterly measures of public concern over global climate change. Five factors should account for changes in levels of concern: extreme weather events, public access to accurate scientific information, media coverage, elite cues, and movement/countermovement advocacy. Structural equation modeling indicates that elite cues, movement advocacy efforts, weather, and structural economic factors influence the level of public concern about climate change. While media coverage exerts an important influence, it is itself largely a function of elite cues and economic factors. Promulgation to the public of scientific information on climate change has no effect. Information-based science advocacy has had only a minor effect on public concern, while political mobilization by elites and advocacy groups is critical in influencing climate change concern.     

Modeling mobile source emissions during traffic jams in a micro urban environment

Urbanization typically involves a continuous increase in motor vehicle use, resulting in congestion known as traffic jams. Idling emissions due to traffic jams combine with the complex terrain created by buildings to concentrate atmospheric pollutants in localized areas. This research simulates emissions concentrations and distributions for a congested street in Minsk, Belarus. Ground-level (up to 50-meters above the street's surface) pollutant concentrations were calculated using STAR (version 3.10) with emission factors obtained from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, wind speed and direction, and building location and size. Relative emissions concentrations and distributions were simulated at 1-meter and 10-meters above street level. The findings demonstrate the importance of wind speed and direction, and building size and location on emissions concentrations and distributions, with the leeward sides of buildings retaining up to 99 percent of the emitted pollutants within 1-meter of street level, and up to 77 percent 10-meters above the street.     

Model-based combination of spatial information for stream networks

Evolutionary improvements in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) now routinely allow the management and mapping of spatial-temporal information. In response, the development of statistical models to combine information of different types and spatial support is of vital importance to environmental science. In this paper we develop a hierarchical spatial statistical model for environmental indicators of stream and river systems in the United States Mid-Atlantic Region by combining information from separate monitoring surveys, available contextual information on hydrologic units and remote sensing information. These models are used to estimate the indicators throughout the riverine system based on information from multiple sources and aggregate scales. The analysis is based on information underlying the Landscape Atlas of the mid-Atlantic region produced by the US Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP). We also combine information from two overlapping separate monitoring surveys, the EMAP Stream and River Survey and the Maryland Biological Streams Survey. We present a general framework for comparative distributional analysis based on the concept of a relative spatial distribution. As an application, the spatial model is used to predict spatial distributions and relative spatial distributions for a watershed.     

Threatened and Endangered Species: At What Cost? The Corps of Engineers Looks at Expenditures and Priorities

Current political conditions, primarily budgetary uncertainty, and the related reluctance to make funding commitments for future generations, have raised questions about the costs of conservation and environmental protection that have not previously been asked. As Federal investments are scrutinized and budgets become ever more constrained, the costs associated with environmental requirements could begin to be of greater importance and to influence decisions on Federal projects. In response to concerns about the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) spending under the Endangered Species Act (P.L. 93-205) (ESA), a limited investigation was performed to determine the accuracy of reported Corps expenditures. The investigation showed that, for particular groups of species, actual conservation costs for threatened and endangered species may be twice the amounts previously reported in the annual ESA expenditure reporting to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. In light of this finding, the Corps has sought a means to provide more accurate and consistent reporting of expenditures for addressing threatened and endangered species. A Species Costs Template (template) has been developed to identify the types and magnitude of costs related to the ESA and to counteract the impediments (legal, institutional, and practical) to underreporting costs. The template will be used by the Corps for reporting ESA costs beginning with Fiscal Year 2005 (FY05) (reported in January 2006). Five broad categories of expenditures (effects determination costs, ESA protection and conservation costs, equipment costs, opportunity costs, and other species costs) are identified by the template.     

A statistical methodology for the evaluation of long-range dispersion models: an application to the ETEX exercise

This paper describes the statistical methodology applied to evaluate the performance of the long-range dispersion models that were used in the modelling activities of ETEX (European Tracer EXperiment). The availability of a large number of models makes this exercise rather unique. These models are used for the practical purpose to quantify the contamination effects over a vast area, following a hypothetical accidental release of harmful material. This makes the quality judgement that could be attributed to the results of each model particularly important.The statistical indicators considered to be the most effective for the evaluation of long-range dispersion models are introduced and commented, with specific examples in the frame of ETEX simulations. The importance of using several indices and critically interpreting the results is discussed.     

Comparison of forest edge effects on throughfall deposition in different forest types

This study examined the influence of distance to the forest edge, forest type, and time on Cl⁻, SO₄²⁻, NO₃⁻, and NH₄⁺ throughfall deposition in forest edges. The forests were dominated by pedunculate oak, silver birch, or Corsican/Austrian pine, and were situated in two regions of Flanders (Belgium). Along transects, throughfall deposition was monitored at distances of 0-128 m from the forest edge. A repeated-measures analysis demonstrated that time, forest type, and distance to the forest edge significantly influenced throughfall deposition of the ions studied. The effect of distance to the forest edge depended significantly on forest type in the deposition of Cl⁻, SO₄²⁻, and NO₃⁻: the edge effect was significantly greater in pine stands than in deciduous birch and oak stands. This finding supports the possibility of converting pine plantations into oak or birch forests in order to mitigate the input of nitrogen and potentially acidifying deposition.     

龙岩市区大气颗粒物中多环芳烃的种类和时空分布特征及来源

采用恒能量同步荧光法检测了龙岩市大气颗粒物样品中的多环芳烃(PAHs),比较了龙岩市区大气颗粒物中多环芳烃含量的差异以及不同季节对多环芳烃含量的影响,讨论了其分布规律及污染源。     

Virtues of simple hydro-economic optimization: Baja California, Mexico

This paper uses simple hydro-economic optimization to investigate a wide range of regional water system management options for northern Baja California, Mexico. Hydro-economic optimization models, even with parsimonious model formulations, enable investigation of promising water management portfolios for supplying water to agricultural, environmental and urban users. CALVIN, a generalized hydro-economic model, is used in a case study of Baja California. This drought-prone region faces significant challenges to supply water to agriculture and its fast growing border cities. Water management portfolios include water markets, wastewater reuse, seawater desalination and infrastructure expansions. Water markets provide the flexibility to meet future urban demands; however conveyance capacity limits their use. Wastewater reuse and conveyance expansions are economically promising. At current costs desalination is currently uneconomical for Baja California compared to other alternatives. Even simple hydro-economic models suggest ways to increase efficiency of water management in water scarce areas, and provide an economic basis for evaluating long-term water management solutions.