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61.
Poulomi Ganguli Auroop R. Ganguly 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2016,52(1):138-167
We examine the robustness of a suite of regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating meteorological droughts and associated metrics in present‐day climate (1971‐2003) over the conterminous United States (U.S.). The RCMs that are part of North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) simulations are compared with multiple observations over the climatologically homogeneous regions of the U.S. The seasonal precipitation, climatology, drought attributes, and trends have been assessed. The reanalysis‐based multi‐model median RCM reasonably simulates observed statistical attributes of drought and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. However, models fail to simulate significant drying trend over the Southwest and West. Further, reanalysis‐based NARCCAP runs underestimate the observed drought frequency overall, with the exception of the Southwest; whereas they underestimate persistence in the drought‐affected areas over the Southwest and West‐North Central regions. However, global climate model‐driven NARCCAP ensembles tend to overestimate regional drought frequencies. Models exhibit considerable uncertainties while reproducing meteorological drought statistics, as evidenced by a general lack of agreement in the Hurst exponent, which in turn controls drought persistence. Water resources managers need to be aware of the limitations of current climate models, while regional climate modelers may want to fine‐tune their parameters to address impact‐relevant metrics. 相似文献
62.
面源模式的通用算法探讨 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
提出了矩形面源扩散模拟计算的数值积分法和中心虚点源法,以及二者结合的综合法,并用算例进行了计算精度、计算速度和结果连续性的对比.结果表明:与传统的后置虚点源法及其改进算法——谷清经验法相比,该算法与理论真值的相对误差可从20%以上降低到3%以下,并且可以准确地反映风向和面源的形状,但在计算量上要增大十几倍到上百倍.对于任意不规则面源,提出了正方形分割算法,并对分割正方形的取舍采用简便的重心判断法,以准确方便地模拟其形状.综合运用笔者提出的适于机算的通用面源算法,对不同的计算任务权衡速度和精度采用合适的算法,可以处理各种气象条件下任意形状面源的扩散计算,并可取得理想的计算精度. 相似文献
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67.
Determining a remeasurement frequency of variables over time is required in monitoring environmental systems. This article
demonstrates methods based on regression modeling and spatio-temporal variability to determine the time interval to remeasure
the ground and vegetation cover factor on permanent plots for monitoring a soil erosion system. The spatio-temporal variability
methods include use of historical data to predict semivariograms, modeling average temporal variability, and temporal interpolation
by two-step kriging. The results show that for the cover factor, the relative errors of the prediction increase with an increased
length of time interval between remeasurements when using the regression and semivariogram models. Given precision or accuracy
requirements, appropriate time intervals can be determined. However, the remeasurement frequency also varies depending on
the prediction interval time. As an alternative method, the range parameter of a semivariogram model can be used to quantify
average temporal variability that approximates the maximum time interval between remeasurements. This method is simpler than
regression and semivariogram modeling, but it requires a long-term dataset based on permanent plots. In addition, the temporal
interpolation by two-step kriging is also used to determine the time interval. This method is applicable when remeasurements
in time are not sufficient. If spatial and temporal remeasurements are sufficient, it can be expanded and applied to design
spatial and temporal sampling simultaneously. 相似文献
68.
大跨结构多维多点输入抗震研究进展 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
对于大跨度结构来说,应该考虑地震动的多维多点效应。从国内外发展现状及取得的主要研究进展和近期的发展动向等角度,对大跨度结构多维多点输入抗震的研究现状进行了系统的综述和总结。首先论述了多维地震动及其相关性,从地震动的各个分量之间的强度比、频率、持时及相关性等方面说明地震动分量的特性;然后论述地震动时空模型,侧重于反映地震动空间变化的相关函数模型的研究现状;最后比较了大跨度结构考虑多维多点输入的抗震计算方法,包括反应谱法、时程分析法以及随机振动分析法。对今后关于这一问题所应开展的研究提出了建议。 相似文献
69.
Introduction: While improved safety is a highly cited potential benefit of autonomous vehicles (AVs), at the same time a frequently cited concern is the new safety challenges that AVs introduce. The literature lacks a rigorous exploration of the safety perceptions of road users who will interact with AVs, including vulnerable road users. Addressing this gap is essential because the successful integration of AVs into transportation systems hinges on an understanding of how all road users will react to their presence. Methods: A stated preference survey of the Phoenix, Arizona, metropolitan statistical area (Phoenix MSA) was conducted in July 2018. A series of ordered probit models was estimated to analyze the survey responses and identify differences between various population groups with respect to the perceived safety of driving, cycling, and walking near AVs. Results: Greater exposure to and awareness of AVs are not uniformly associated with increases in perceived safety. Various attitudinal factors, level of AV automation, and other intrinsic and extrinsic factors are related to safety perceptions of driving, walking, and cycling near AVs. Socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, such as gender, age, income, employment, and automobile usage and ownership, have various relationships with perceived safety. Conclusions: Cycling near an AV was perceived as the least safe activity, followed by walking and then driving near an AV. Both similarities and differences were observed among the factors associated with the perceived safety of different travel alternatives. Practical Applications: Public perception will guide the development and adoption of AVs directly and indirectly. To help maintain control of public perception, transportation planners, decision makers, and other stakeholders should consider more deliberate and targeted messaging to address the concerns of different road users. In addition, more careful pilot testing and more direct attention to vulnerable road users may help avoid a backlash that could delay the rollout of this technology. 相似文献
70.
Pool evaporation is a major source of flammable vapour clouds. Predicting the evaporation rate of a liquid hydrocarbon pool is therefore a key issue of dispersion modelling for safety concerns. This paper presents small- and medium-scale experiments of pool evaporation carried out with liquid hydrocarbons (pentane, heptane), hydrocarbon “gasoline-like” mixtures and gasoline. Liquid mass loss was measured and the evaporation rate deduced with its evolution in time. Other observations are highlighted, regarding the evolution of liquid temperatures, mixture compositions, and scale effects like the influence of pool length on surface evaporation rate. Comparisons with well-known correlations are then shown. The authors finally suggest a new semi-empirical correlation with a set of parameters fitted on the performed experiments. 相似文献