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361.
安全是海运行业永恒的主题,调查研究表明,人因失误是造成海事的主要原因。为了对海运人因失误进行研究,探讨引起人因失误的行为形成因子(PSF),确定在PSF影响下的人因失误概率。在调查海上避让行为的人因失误和这些失误的行为形成因子的基础上,采用APJE和SLIM相结合的方法对航海人员避让行为中的可靠性进行分析。结果表明,航海人员疲劳与健康程度、知识、经验与培训水平、任务复杂程度、安全管理水平与组织有效性等PSF对人因失误概率有着不同程度的影响,相应提高PSF水平,可极大地减少人因失误概率。利用APJE确定端点绝对失误概率,解决了SLIM方法中难以获得参考点概率的问题,获得了在不同种类不同水平PSF影响下的海运人因失误概率。 相似文献
362.
Linda J. Bellamy Martijn Mud Henk Jan Manuel Joy I.H. Oh 《Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries》2013,26(6):1039-1059
In the Netherlands there are around 400 “Seveso” sites that fall under the Dutch Major Hazards Decree (BRZO) 1999. Between 2006 and 2010 the Dutch Labour Inspectorate's Directorate for Major Hazard Control completed investigations of 118 loss of containment incidents involving hazardous substances from this group. On the basis of investigation reports the incidents were entered in a tailor-made tool called Storybuilder developed for the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment for identifying the dominant patterns of technical safety barrier failures, barrier task failures and underlying management causes associated with the resulting loss of control events. The model is a bow-tie structure with six lines of defence, three on either side of the central loss of containment event. In the first line of defence, failures in the safety barriers leading to loss of control events were primarily equipment condition failures, pre start-up and safeguarding failures and process deviations such as pressure and flow failures. These deviations, which should have been recovered while still within the safe envelope of operation, were missed primarily because of inadequate indication signals that the deviations have occurred. Through failures of subsequent lines of defence they are developing into serious incidents. Overall, task failures are principally failures to provide adequate technical safety barriers and failures to operate provided barriers appropriately. Underlying management delivery failures were mainly found in equipment specifications and provisions, procedures and competence. The competence delivery system is especially important for identifying equipment condition, equipment isolation for maintenance, pre-start-up status and process deviations. Human errors associated with operating barriers were identified in fifty per cent of cases, were mostly mistakes and feature primarily in failure to prevent deviations and subsequently recover them. Loss of control associated with loss of containment was primarily due to the containment being bypassed (72% of incidents) and less to material strength failures (28%). Transfer pipework, connections in process plant and relief valves are the most frequent release points and the dominant release material is extremely flammable. It is concluded that the analysis of a large number of incidents in Storybuilder can support the quantification of underlying causes and provide evidence of where the weak points exist in major hazard control in the prevention of major accidents. 相似文献
363.
影响安全生产状况的经济社会发展指标及灰色关联度分析 总被引:2,自引:9,他引:2
为研究我国经济社会发展指标与安全生产状况之间的关系,首先对新中国建立以来安全生产状况的规律性作了分析研究。然后选取了与安全生产密切相关的7个经济社会发展指标,应用灰色系统理论的关联度分析法计算分析了各指标对安全生产状况的影响程度,得出该时期农业产值占GDP的比重对安全生产状况的影响最大,第三产业的影响其次,科技和教育经费的投入指标对安全生产状况的影响度较小的结论,并深入分析探讨了其内在原因。提出了我国在工业化进程中如何解决安全生产问题的意见和建议。 相似文献
364.
张悦 《中国安全生产科学技术》2016,12(5):109-113
浮式储存和再气化装置(FSRU)运行过程中易导致火灾爆炸等事故的发生,为有效评估FSRU作业过程火灾爆炸危险性,采用火灾爆炸危险指数评估法,对运用FSRU的某浮式LNG接收终端进行危险性评估;选取LNG运输船与FSRU装料作业等9个单元,研究确定了一般工艺危险性系数、特殊工艺危险性系数、安全措施补偿系数等参数,得出了补偿前后的火灾爆炸危险性指数,有效评估了FSRU作业过程火灾爆炸危险性,并基于研究结果提出了保障FSRU作业安全的对策措施与建议。研究结果表明,安全措施补偿前,缘于LNG/NG本身的火灾危险性和数量较大,能量高度集中,LNG运输船与FSRU装料作业等单元的火灾爆炸危险等级均达到了“非常大”;在采取了一系列的安全措施补偿后,火灾爆炸危险指数降低了3/5左右。这对系统深入地研究FSRU作业安全具有较重要的理论意义和实际应用价值。 相似文献
365.
366.
This paper describes an application of multiple criteria analysis (MCA) in assessing criteria and indicators adapted for a
particular forest management unit. The methods include: ranking, rating, and pairwise comparisons. These methods were used
in a participatory decision-making environment where a team representing various stakeholders and professionals used their
expert opinions and judgements in assessing different criteria and indicators (C&I) on the one hand, and how suitable and
applicable they are to a forest management unit on the other. A forest concession located in Kalimantan, Indonesia, was used
as the site for the case study. Results from the study show that the multicriteria methods are effective tools that can be
used as structured decision aids to evaluate, prioritize, and select sets of C&I for a particular forest management unit.
Ranking and rating approaches can be used as a screening tool to develop an initial list of C&I. Pairwise comparison, on the
other hand, can be used as a finer filter to further reduce the list. In addition to using these three MCA methods, the study
also examines two commonly used group decision-making techniques, the Delphi method and the nominal group technique. Feedback
received from the participants indicates that the methods are transparent, easy to implement, and provide a convenient environment
for participatory decision-making. 相似文献
367.
Lake Erie water quality has improved dramatically since the degraded conditions of the 1960s. Additional gains could be made,
but at the expense of further investment and reductions in fishery productivity. In facing such cross-jurisdictional issues,
natural resource managers in Canada and the United States must grapple with conflicting objectives and important uncertainties,
while considering the priorities of the public that live in the basin. The techniques and tools of decision analysis have
been used successfully to deal with such decision problems in a range of environmental settings, but infrequently in the Great
Lakes. The objective of this paper is to illustrate how such techniques might be brought to bear on an important, real decision
currently facing Lake Erie resource managers and stakeholders: the choice of new phosphorus loading targets for the lake.
The heart of our approach is a systematic elicitation of stakeholder preferences and an investigation of the degree to which
different phosphorus-loading policies might satisfy ecosystem objectives. Results show that there are potential benefits to
changing the historical policy of reducing phosphorus loads in Lake Erie. 相似文献
368.
Methodological Development of an Index of Coastal Water Quality: Application in a Tourist Area 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
With the aim of obtaining an index of coastal water quality, a methodological procedure based on numerical classification and discriminant analysis is presented. The procedure was applied to nutrient data (ammonia, nitrite, nitrate, and phosphate) analyzed along the coastal waters of a Spanish tourist area. Using numerical classification, three levels of nutrient loading were revealed, characterizing oligotrophic, mesotrophic, and potentially eutrophic waters. Discriminant analysis was shown to be an effective methodological tool in the discrimination between trophic groups. For every group, the discriminant procedure generated the centroids. The centroids representing oligotrophic and potentially eutrophic conditions were used to establish the two extremes of the continuum of mesotrophic conditions in these coastal waters: Standardizing values from -1 to 1, the centroids for oligotrophic and potentially eutrophic waters yielded an interval that defined the range of mesotrophic conditions. This interval is proposed as a water quality index. The ability of the coastal water quality index to successfully predict mesotrophic conditions was proved with random samples. 相似文献
369.
370.