Uncertainties in QRA: Analysis of losses of containment from piping and implications on risk prevention and mitigation

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) is commonly used in the chemical industry to support decision-making. Common practices are based on standard methods, such as fault tree, event tree, etc.; in this frame, risk is a function of frequency of events (probability) and associated consequences (negative outcomes), but relevant uncertainties often are not properly taken into account in the derived results. This paper presents the application of an extended risk analysis of loss of containments for a case-study with the following aims: firstly, the uncertainties related to the results of the analysis, which derive from assumption in the application of the standard models, are qualitatively assessed; secondly the application allows evaluating the impact of the uncertainties on the trustworthiness of the results and, finally, commenting about their use in the risk prevention and mitigation.     

Confidence-based quantitative risk analysis for offshore accidental hydrocarbon release events

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) has been widely used to conduct the assessment of offshore accidental risks. However, the accuracy and validity of QRA is significantly affected by uncertainties when subjective judgments are involved. Therefore, it is unrealistic to determine the probability of a hazardous event by using one single explicit value when safety experts have a relatively low confidence level in their judgments. This paper proposes a new methodology for incorporating uncertainties into conventional QRA using the concept of confidence level. Offshore hydrocarbon release hazards are focused on and a barrier and operational risk analysis (BORA-Release) method is selected as the basic model to illustrate the proposed methodology. A left–right (L–R) bell-shaped fuzzy number is employed and its membership curve is able to control its shape to represent different confidence levels. As to the complex geometry of the bell-shaped fuzzy number, an α-cut operation is introduced to conduct the arithmetic operations of the fuzzy number, and a defuzzification method with total integral value is chosen to match the α-cut operations and acquire complete information for the fuzzy numbers. In the meantime, an optimism index is used to describe the attitude of the decision-maker. One case study is provided in this paper to demonstrate the implementation of this method.     

水稻田的甲烷释放特性及其生物学机理

本文报导采用土柱法和田间原位法研究渍水稻田甲烷释放特性的结果。不同生育期的测定表明,早稻以分蘖盛期时释放量最大,以后逐渐减少,晚稻从分蘖始期起逐渐增加,至分蘖盛期、末期时达到最大,随后在孕穗期急剧减少,至生长后期又有所回升。以原位法测定表明,晚间和上午释放的甲烷量较多,中午几乎无甲烷释放,下午又有少量释放。不同施肥区稻田甲烷释放量明显不同,以施猪粪有机肥区为最高,次为施尿素无机氮区,不施肥区最低。但各施肥区水稻不同生育期的甲烷释放趋势完全一致,以分蘖期释放量最大,稻田释放的甲烷主要是稻植株释放的,可占总释放量的85％以上。行株间土壤释放的量不多。田间水释放极少,就植株而言,甲烷释放部位主要是在与土壤密切结合的未扰动的根基和根系部位,水面下茎秆白色部分和水上绿色部分几乎无释放。根系也主要是靠近根基的上半部分,根尖部位甲烷形成活性明显小得多。且研究表明,产甲烷细菌附存于根表而不进入根内组织。根际土壤中产甲烷细菌、厌氧性纤维素分解细菌和甲烷氧化细菌的数量以及总挥发有机酸含量都明显高于和行间土壤。     

杭州市城市和郊区表土磷库及环境风险评价

杭州市城市和郊区土壤磷素具有明显的积累特征并有较高的潜在释放能力。可提取态P(包括H2O-P、NaHCO3-P.NaOH-P和HCl-P)平均在80％左右，其中以HCl—P的比例最高，平均约55％。32个研究土样中，26个土样的水可溶性(H20—P)在10mg／kg以上，15个土样的NaHCO3—P在100mg/kg以上。酸性条件下P的释放潜力明显增加。土壤水溶性P含量及在酸性条件下P的释放量与土壤总P呈正相关，与土壤pH负相关。     

矿物包裹复合肥的缓释性研究

采用埋土试验法和微区试验方法,对矿物包裹复合肥料的缓释性进行了研究。结果表明,矿物包裹复合肥料的养分释放明显向后期延伸,矿物包裹复合肥料的肥效期可达120 d以上,比复混合肥料的肥效期至少延长80 d,有利于植物均衡吸收养分,其氮的利用效率比等养分复合肥高出38个百分点;其磷的利用效率比等养分复合肥高出11.5个百分点。     

Simulating the dynamics of sulfur species and zinc in wetland sediments

In situ measurements comparing vertical SO₄²⁻ profiles in vegetated and non-vegetated sediments showed that SO₄²⁻ concentrations in vegetated sediments increased significantly at the beginning of the growing season and then gradually decreased during the rest of the growing season. Throughout the growing season, SO₄²⁻ concentrations remained higher in the vegetated sediments than in the sediments without plants. The higher SO₄²⁻ concentrations in the vegetated sediments indicate that oxygen release from roots and evapotranspiration-induced advection by plants play an important role in the dynamics of sulfur species in sediments. Since the total pool of solid-phase sulfide is relatively large compared to the mass of SO₄²⁻ in the sediments, the gradual decrease of SO₄²⁻ concentrations may result from limitation of the solid-phase sulfide that is in direct contact with or very close to the roots and rhizomes. This would mean that the main pool of solid-phase sulfide and associated trace metals are not affected by the oxygen release from roots, and the associated trace metals will not become bioavailable during the growing season.     

袋装控释铁肥压根法矫治桃树黄叶病的效果

本文介绍了袋装控释铁肥压根法矫治桃树缺铁黄叶病的效果。该法具有大幅度增加叶绿素含量．提高果实产量,改善果实品质,降低矫治成本,安全可靠,效果好的特点。     

伊春河河水水溶性腐殖酸内源释放模型

以水溶性腐殖酸含量很高的伊春河为例，利用冬季冰封无外源输入的条件，在有产室内模拟研究的基础上，通过现场采样及测定，建立了伊春河河水水溶性腐殖酸的内源释放模型，根据同期采集样品进行的验证表明，该模型能够准确地反映河流沉积物中水溶性瘁殖酸向河水中释放的速率以及速率与流速等条件的定量关系。     

Simulation of sludge-dredging effects in controlling nutrient release of Lake Kasumigaura with large-size core samples

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西安地区土壤CO2 释放量和释放规律

根据碱溶液吸收法,对西安地区不同植被条件下土壤CO2释放量进行了昼夜观测,观测资料显示,西安地区各月份土壤CO2释放量在一昼夜内具有明显的变化,从当日上午到次日上午,CO2释放量表现出由低变高再变低的规律,土壤CO2释放量变化与温度变化具有相同的特征,但释放量的变化具有滞后性,相对于温度的变化滞后4－6h左右,温度是决定土壤CO2释放量昼夜变化规律的主要因素,它的升高和降低分别造成了土壤CO2和放量的增加和减少,不同植被条件下,土壤CO2释放量不同,林地释放量大于草地,草地释放量大于裸地,夜间12h释放量大于白天12h释放量。