真实大空间建筑物火灾场模拟研究

根据一真实火灾调查报告设定了真实大空间建筑物开口情况和材料燃烧性能参数,建立了FDS(Fire Dy-namics Simulator)物理模型。计算了火灾释热速率以及着火大空间烟气的温度场和一氧化碳浓度场的变化。研究结果表明:火灾短时间发生轰燃,随后发生回燃。轰燃是导致大量人员死亡的1个重要原因;回燃没有引起各点烟气的温度和一氧化碳浓度显著的提高,但对各点烟气的温度和一氧化碳浓度的保持起到较大作用。     

Numerical simulation of water curtain application for ammonia release dispersion

Using water curtain system to forced mitigate ammonia vapor cloud has been proven to be an effective measure. Currently, no engineering guidelines for designing an effective water curtain system are available, due to lack of understanding of complex interactions between ammonia vapor cloud and water droplets, especially the understanding of ammonia absorption into water droplets. This paper presents numerical calculations to reproduce the continuous ammonia release dispersion with and without the mitigating influence of a downwind water curtain using computational fluid dynamic (CFD) software ANSYS Fluent 14.0. The turbulence models k–ɛ and RNG were used to simulate the ammonia cloud dispersion without downwind water curtain. The simulated results were compared with literature using the statistical performance indicators. The RNG model represents better agreement with the experimental data and the k–ɛ model generates a slightly lesser result. The RNG model coupled with Lagrangian discrete phase model (DPM) was used to simulate the dilution effectiveness of the water curtain system. The ammonia absorption was taken into account by means of user-defined functions (UDF). The simulated effectiveness of water curtains has good agreements with the experimental results. The effectiveness of water mitigation system with and without the ammonia absorption was compared. The results display that the effectiveness mainly depends on the strong air entrainment enhanced by water droplets movement and the ammonia absorption also enhances the effectiveness of water curtain mitigation system. The study indicates that the CFD code can be satisfactorily applied in design criteria for an effective mitigation system.     

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation,Population Affected and Property Damages in Corpus Christi1

Frey, Ashley E., Francisco Olivera, Jennifer L. Irish, Lauren M. Dunkin, James M. Kaihatu, Celso M. Ferreira, and Billy L. Edge, 2010. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation, Population Affected and Property Damages in Corpus Christi. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1–11. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00475.x Abstract: The effect of climate change on storm-surge flooding and the implications for population and structural damages on the city of Corpus Christi, Texas, was investigated. The study considered the influence of sea level rise and hurricane intensification, both influenced by climate change. Combinations of future carbon dioxide equivalent emission rates and carbon dioxide doubling sensitivities, based on findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were considered to define future climate scenarios. A suite of physically based numerical models for hurricane winds and the resulting waves, surge, and morphological change at the coast were used to determine flooded areas, population affected, and property damages for Hurricanes Bret, Beulah, and a version of Carla shifted south from its original track, under present and predicted future climate conditions. A comparison of the economic damages for current climate conditions and for the 2080s climate scenario shows that, for Carla (shifted), there will be an increase in the range of $270-1,100 million; for Beulah, of $100-390 million; and, for Bret, of $30-280 million. A similar analysis was also conducted for 2030s predicted climate scenarios. Overall, the comparison of the results for the different climate conditions indicates what the destructive consequences of climate change could be, even within the somewhat short time frame of 80 years considered here.     

化工事故应急救援仿真演练系统的实施探讨

阐述了化工事故应急救援仿真的必要性及其国内外研究进展;提出整个系统的框架并设计系统开发过程的模型;分析了基于高层体系结构(HIA)的仿真系统的开发要点,给出参考开发工具,从而为整个系统开发提供思路.     

U型工作面上隅角埋管瓦斯抽采数值模拟研究

传统的U型通风工作面上隅角瓦斯积聚现象经常出现，严重制约着矿井正常生产能力的有效发挥，对矿井安全生产造成重大威胁。基于前人对采空区非均质多孔介质气体运移理论的研究，采用Fluent软件数值模拟研究了U型和上隅角埋管条件下U型通风系统的静压力场和瓦斯浓度场。研究结果表明：在相同的模型参数条件下，U型通风容易造成上隅角瓦斯积聚，上隅角瓦斯超限问题十分严重；采空区5m处埋管，治理上隅角瓦斯积聚的效果欠佳，达不到安全开采的条件；15m处埋管可以较好的解决上隅角瓦斯超限问题，工作面没有出现瓦斯积聚现象，工作面和回风巷的瓦斯浓度始终处于1％以下；25m处埋管的效果与15m基本相同，没有表现出更好的瓦斯治理效果。综合数值模拟的结果，确定了上隅角埋管抽放采空区瓦斯的理想抽放位置为距离地板垂高1．2m、沿走向深入采空区15m处。     

DYNAMICS OF SIMULATED EFFECTS OF IRRIGATION OVER DRYLAND FARMING IN SASKATCHEWAN1

ABSTRACT: Irrigation development in Saskatchewan was initiated as an instrument to bring forth regional stability through drought proofing and diversification in the agricultural sector. This development has been surrounded by controversies. Particularly, some critics questioning its economic value to the farmer. In this study, irrigation on a farm is compared as a growth alternative to the expansion of dryland farming. Under relatively conservative machine replacement policies, modest family withdrawals, government subsidized irrigation loans, and relatively favorable gross operating margins, irrigation can be a profitable undertaking in the South Saskatchewan River Basin.     

MFAM模型在河流水质污染模拟及预测中的应用

文中以时间序列分析为基础，介绍了均值生成函数这一崭新概念，并且经成份因子提取分析推导建立了模拟序列的数字模型（简记为MFAM），经对黄河下游花园口断面的1988-1989年实测水质污染指标溶解氧（DO），氨氧，化学耗氧量（COD），五日生化需氧量（BOD5）等序列模拟，结果表明MFAM模型能较好地模拟河流水质污染指标的变化趋势，拟合平均误差只有5.2-6.4%，MFAM模型应用于预测1990-1991年水质污染指标变化，结果表明预测精度达85%以上，文中最后得出结论：MFAM模型应用于河流污染模拟和预测，是完全可行且十分方便。     

Initial decision analysis (IDA): a participatory approach for developing resource policies

Initial decision analysis (IDA) is a microcomputer based decision-making technique that is organized so that a rational, step-by-step, procedure can be followed to use existing knowledge to develop resource policies. The IDA process provides a systematic way for participants to define their own problem and to explore jointly alternative solutions. IDA is particularly suited to resolving complex problems involving many groups with conflicting interests. IDA is illustrated with data from the US Forest Service's Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the 1985 to 2030 Resource Planning Act Program for the United States. Four policy options are evaluated: maximization of timber production, of grazing, and of wilderness, and a dominant use policy that concentrates timber management on productive sites. Policies were evaluated using a new mathematical satisficing procedure. Mathematical satisficing of simulated policy consequences showed that, for selected performance standards, current RPA policies are superior to the four alternative policies examined.