基于结构方程模型的环境风险接受度影响因素分析

随着社会经济的发展和城市化进程的推进,我国环境风险事故频发。与此同时,公众对于美好环境的需求日益提升,公众与专家和政府之间的风险判断差异是不同规模的群体性事件发生的主要诱因。为识别公众环境风险接受度的影响因素,本研究基于结构方程模型分析了11种环境风险的客观风险水平和公众感知到的风险影响度、场域了解度、政府信任度、社会经济水平等因素对公众风险接受度的影响。研究结果显示,社会经济水平、风险影响度、场域了解度、政府信任度均直接影响公众的风险接受度;客观风险水平则通过风险影响度的中介作用间接影响风险接受度。因此,为在经济发展过程中降低公众风险感知偏差对生产生活的影响,我国除了通过更严格的风险管控手段降低风险事故发生概率和影响范围外,还需要通过信息公开、公众参与和生态科普等方式增强公众对风险场域的了解度和对政府的信任度以提升风险接受能力。     

Selection of appropriate organic additives for enhancing Zn and Cd phytoextraction by hyperaccumulators

Chelant-enhanced phytoextraction is one of the most promising technologies to remove heavy metals from soil. The key of the technology is to choose suitable additives in combination with a suitable plant. In the present study, laboratory batch experiment of metal solubilization, cress seeds germination were undertaken to investigate the metal-mobilizing capability and the phytotoxicity of organic additives, including ethylene diamine triacetic acid （EDTA）, citric acid, acetic acid, oxalic acid, glutamine and monosodium glutamate waste liquid （MGWL） from food industry. Experiments in pots were carried out to study the effects of the additives on Zn and Cd phytoextraction. Furthermore, a leaching experiment with lysimeter was performed to evaluate the environmental risks of additive-induced leaching to underground water. The results showed that EDTA had a strong mobilizing ability for Zn and Cd, followed by mixed reagent （MR） and MGWL. MGWL and acetic acid at 5 mmol equivalent per liter resulted in seed germination index less than 2%. Experiments in pots verified the phytotoxicity of acetic acid and MGWL. Addition of the mixed reagent at 6--10 mmol/kg significantly increased Zn phytoextraction by Thlaspi caerulescens. The same for EDTA and the mixed reagent at 10 mmol/kg by Sedum dfredii. But only mixed reagents could significantly increase Cd phytoextraction by the studied hyperaccumulators. This suggested that the strong chelant was not always the good agent to enhance phytoextraction. S. alfredii combined with 2--10 mmol/kg soil MR was preferred for phytoremediation of Cd/Zn contaminated soils in southern China, this could result in high phytoextraction of Cd/Zn and reduce the leaching risk to underground water than EDTA assisted phytoextration.     

考虑不同合作模式和多方奖惩的绿色信贷风险优化控制研究

绿色信贷风险的优化控制,有利于推动绿色信贷的稳定、可持续发展,实现环境效益、经济效益和社会效益的共赢。本研究将政府部门、环保部门、金融机构和企业的行为纳入同一个理论体系中,充分考虑影响参与主体最优努力水平和绿色信贷风险最优轨迹的环境因素、经济因素和社会因素。在此基础上,构建不同合作模式下的绿色信贷风险优化控制模型,分析不同情境下参与主体的努力水平,比较绿色信贷风险的最优轨迹,找出绿色信贷风险优化控制存在的问题及原因。研究结果表明：第一,四方合作模式对绿色信贷风险的优化控制具有明显的优势。第二,政府的参与能够有效带动其余合作者的积极性。第三,金融机构和企业之间,存在明显的利益共存和投入互动关系。第四,补贴和惩罚措施在合作过程中能够产生激励和约束作用,但在非合作模式下发挥的作用比较有限。第五,参与主体的协同水平越高,越有利于绿色信贷风险的优化控制。因此,需要灵活运用行政、经济或法律等多种干预手段,并对补贴用途进行考评和增强舆论监督,防止金融机构和企业将绿色补贴挪作他用。同时,建立符合国内绿色信贷发展特点的风险标准,统一绿色信贷风险的评判和管控依据。     

基于Logistic回归的燃气管网风险因素重要度分析方法研究

为确定燃气管网风险评估的关键风险因素,以A省各地市燃气管网为研究对象,基于燃气专家经验确定燃气管线风险等级,提出基于Logistic回归的燃气管网风险因素重要度分析方法。采用样本增强及随机抽样的方式,选取400个均衡样本作为管网评估数据输入,通过因子分析方法对其进行降维,得到3个公共因子并作为一级指标反向构建燃气管网风险评估指标体系;利用有序多分类Logistic回归方法,根据回归系数绝对值大小对风险因素进行重要度排序。研究结果表明：外界环境对燃气管网风险的贡献程度相对较高,管道自身因素和巡检养护次之。研究结果可为城市燃气风险防控提供理论依据和方法参考。     

城市环境风险程度排序的模糊分析方法

首先,强调了加强我国城市环境风险程度排序的重要性,然后将城市环境风险系统分解为大气污染环境风险等5个子系统。在建立包含14个城市环境风险因素评价集的基础上,运用模糊集贴近度理论分别构建了城市风险程度排序中“最优序城市”、“中序城市”、“最劣序城市”3个数学模型,这将有利于防范城市环境风险,提高我国城市环境风险管理科学化水平。     

对中国综合风险管理机构体系建设的建议

在大量调研的基础上,分析了我国风险管理机构体系的现状和存在的问题,并以“统筹规划,专人负责,科学管理,共担风险”为原则,以梯形架构为理论基础,提出了对中国综合风险管理机构未来体系建设的一个建议,并对其进行了可行性分析。     

Mainstreaming risk reduction in urban planning and housing: a challenge for international aid organisations

The effects of 'natural' disasters in cities can be worse than in other environments, with poor and marginalised urban communities in the developing world being most at risk. To avoid post-disaster destruction and the forced eviction of these communities, proactive and preventive urban planning, including housing, is required. This paper examines current perceptions and practices within international aid organisations regarding the existing and potential roles of urban planning as a tool for reducing disaster risk. It reveals that urban planning confronts many of the generic challenges to mainstreaming risk reduction in development planning. However, it faces additional barriers. The main reasons for the identified lack of integration of urban planning and risk reduction are, first, the marginal position of both fields within international aid organisations, and second, an incompatibility between the respective professional disciplines. To achieve better integration, a conceptual shift from conventional to non-traditional urban planning is proposed. This paper suggests related operative measures and initiatives to achieve this change.     

Application of dynamic risk analysis in offshore drilling processes

Process safety is the common global language used to communicate the strategies of hazard identification, risk assessment and safety management. Process safety is identified as an integral part of process development and focuses on preventing and mitigating major process accidents such as fires, explosions, and toxic releases in process industries. Accident probability estimation is the most vital step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Drilling process for oil is a hazardous operation and hence safety is one of the major concerns and is often measured in terms of risk. Dynamic risk assessment method is meant to reassess risk in terms of updating initial failure probabilities of events and safety barriers, as new information are made available during a specific operation. In this study, a Bayesian network model is developed to represent a well kick scenario. The concept of dynamic environment is incorporated by feeding the real-time failure probability values (observed at different time intervals) of safety barriers to the Bayesian network in order to obtain the corresponding time-dependent variations in kick consequences. This study reveals the importance of real-time monitoring of safety barrier performances and quantitatively shows the effect of deterioration of barrier performance on kick consequence probabilities. The Macondo blowout incident is used to demonstrate how early warnings in barrier probability variations could have been observed and adequately managed to prevent escalation to severe consequences.     

安全风险分级防控在油气开发领域的探索与应用

为推动油气开发领域安全风险分级防控有效落地,提高风险预控能力,本文基于风险防控现状评估结果,探索性地研究安全风险分级防控思路,构建了油气开发领域安全风险分级防控体系推进模型,提出了逆向与正向危害因素识别方法,明确了风险评价关键隐性过程原则,构建了风险-后果-能资分级防控决断模型。选取典型试点单位进行实践,结果证明,油气开发领域安全风险分级防控体系推进模型是科学合理的,其他领域也可借鉴该模型开展安全风险分级防控工作。     

锂电池检测的安全标准及安全防护研究

为评估并提高锂电池在使用、储存和运输过程中的安全,本文归纳总结了国内外锂电池安全检测的相关标准,对标准中测试项目异同作了重点分析和对比,并讨论了锂电池的安全风险及风险分级情况。同时,鉴于锂电池检测过程中可能出现的起火、爆炸等危险,探讨了电池检测过程的安全防护技术,并从样品区和试验区两方面提出了安全防护要求和建议。