Investigating the effectiveness of safety countermeasures at highway-rail at-grade crossings using a competing risk model

Introduction: Highway-rail at-grade crossings (HRGCs) are critical locations where a railway and a roadway intersect with one another. Crashes at those locations often result in fatalities and economic and social damages due to the impacts on both road and rail users. The main purpose of countermeasures at HRGCs is to permit safe and efficient rail and highway operations. Method: Countermeasures at highway-rail grade crossings (HRGCs) considered in this study include all traffic control devices and other warning and barrier devices at or on approaches to crossings. In general, active devices are commonly accepted as more effective countermeasures than passive devices. However, many of the previous effectiveness studies are either at the project level or were conducted without considering the before-improvement condition. This study focuses on the network-level marginal effectiveness of countermeasures on crash rate and severity levels during the 29-year study period from 1990 to 2018 by fully considering before-improvement control levels. A competing risk model (CRM) is able to accommodate the competing nature of crash severities as multiple outcomes from the same event of interest, which is crash occurrence in this study. Subsequently, CRM is used in this study as an integrated one-step estimation approach that investigates both crash frequency and severity likelihood over time. Results: The study findings indicate that adding audible devices to crossings already equipped with gates will result in a considerable annual decline in crash occurrence likelihood (0.25%). The same device installed at crossings already controlled by gates and flashing lights results in less reduction in crash occurrence likelihood of 0.14%. Moreover, adding a stop sign to the active crossing controls of gates, standard flashing lights, and audible devices will lead to a decrease in the probability of crash occurrence and severe crashes (injury and fatal). However, adding stop signs to crossings equipped only with crossbucks will increase the crash occurrence.     

多源数据支持下城市火灾风险评估及规划响应

为探析城市火灾风险的空间格局特征,提出科学的火灾防控体系,以合肥市为研究对象,基于火灾风险兴趣点(POI)数据、NPP/VIIRS夜间灯光影像数据、消防站与道路信息等多源数据,运用SAVEE模型和迭代方程评估城市火灾风险,并引入区位-配置(L-A)模型,从不同目标情境优化消防站点布局。研究表明:火灾高风险区主要集中于合肥市二环以内的建成区,尤其是老城区、合肥西站片区、政务区、科学城和东部新中心等区域;现有48座消防站对研究区内的POI覆盖效果较好,覆盖率为86.76%,而对NPP/VIIRS覆盖效果一般,覆盖率仅为55.94%,覆盖率在合肥市东北部、西北部和南部部分地区仍有不足;基于最大化覆盖模型,规划新增44座消防站,明显提升5 min响应时间的覆盖率,可进一步夯实城市消防安全。     

Quantified risk assessment on life and property loss from road collision vehicle fires with hydrogen-fueled tank

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles pose hazards different from conventional vehicles. This paper performs a risk assessment on road collision vehicle fires with hydrogen-fueled tank of 70 MPa. The high voltage battery fire caused by road collision can lead to onboard hydrogen release or explosion. Events progressions are analyzed and typical hydrogen consequences are evaluated quantitatively, including hydrogen jet fires and tank catastrophic rupture. Perimeters around the accident scene are proposed for the safety of general public and first responders, respectively. Risks of fatalities, injuries, and damages are all quantified in financial terms to make it possible to combine and compare.     

含堆焊层临氢设备HTHA敏感性评价修正方法

加氢反应器等高温临氢设备由于长期在高温高压含氢或氢与硫化氢环境下服役,可能会出现高温氢腐蚀(HTHA)、氢脆等损伤现象,直接关系到装置的长期稳定可靠运行。为了防止出现氢损伤现象,多采用奥氏体不锈钢单层或多层堆焊技术。针对RBI技术中HTHA模块对于含堆焊层结构的临氢设备在评估时并未考虑堆焊层的影响,从氢扩散理论出发,考虑堆焊层的影响,提出采用有效氢分压的方法开展HTHA敏感性Pv因子的计算,并改进了E347+E309L双层堆焊层结构的临界Pv修正因子。     

基于PCA-FPP-BP神经网络的高层建筑火灾安全评价

为解决高层建筑构造复杂、人员密度大、火灾触发因素繁多而造成高层建筑火灾安全评价困难的问题,本文提出基于PCA-FPP-BP神经网络的高层建筑火灾安全评价模型。首先运用主成分分析(PCA)对构建的高层建筑火灾安全评价指标降维处理,筛选主要信息;接着基于三角模糊数构建模糊评判矩阵,利用模糊优先规划(FPP)求解指标的权重值,减少主观的影响;最后考虑到指标间关系错综复杂彼此交叉和反馈的特性,选择BP神经网络对高层建筑火灾安全进行评价。通过工程案例证明该评价模型的实用性以及可靠性。     

基于风险的中国电影产业安全管理初探

随着我国电影产业的发展,各种安全事故层出不穷,电影产业的安全生产已经是一个无法回避的问题。在分析电影产业安全事故特点的基础上,结合风险预警理论,系统地探讨了电影产业安全风险管理的基本框架,对提高电影产业安全生产水平提出了建议。     

Postural assessment in pen-and-paper-based observational methods and their associated health effects: a review

Introduction. This review describes standardized ergonomics assessment based on pen-and-paper observational methods for assessing ergonomics risk factors. Objective. The three main objectives are to analyze published pen-and-paper observational methods, to extract and understand the risk levels of each method and to identify their associated health effects. Methodology. The authors searched scientific databases and the Internet for materials from 1970 to 2013 using the following keywords: ergo, posture, method, observational, postural angle, health effects, pain and diseases. Postural assessments of upper arms, lower arms, wrists, neck, back and legs in six pen-and-paper-based observational methods are highlighted, extracted in groups and linked with associated adverse health effects. Results. The literature reviewed showed strengths and limitations of published pen-and-paper-based observational methods in determining the work activities, risk levels and related postural angles to adverse health effects. This provided a better understanding of unsafe work postures and how to improve these postures. Conclusion. Many pen-and-paper-based observational methods have been developed. However, there are still many limitations of these methods. There is, therefore, a need to develop a new pen-and-paper-based observational method for assessing postural problems.     

Development of collision risk indicators for autonomous subsea inspection maintenance and repair

The objective of this article is to present a method for developing collision risk indicators applicable for autonomous remotely operated vehicles (AROVs), which are essential for promoting situation awareness in decisions support systems. Three suitable risk based collision indicators are suggested for AROVs namely, time to collision, mean time to collision and mean impact energy. The proposed indicators are classified into different thresholds; low, intermediate and high. An AROV flight path is simulated to gather input data to calculate the proposed indicators and three collision targets are established, i.e., subsea structure, seabed and a cooperating AROV. The proposed indicator development method together with the case study show a proof-of-concept that the combination of mean time to collision and mean impact energy indicators can identify risk prone waypoints in the AROV path. The method results in an overall risk picture for a given AROV path. The results may provide useful input in replanning of mission paths and for implementation of risk reducing measures. Even though the method focuses on collision risk, it can be used for other accident scenarios for AROVs.     

巢湖流域和太湖流域沉积物中苄氯菊酯和高效氰戊菊酯的生态风险评价

分析了巢湖流域和太湖流域表层沉积物中苄氯菊酯和高效氰戊菊酯,并结合毒性单元法(Toxic Unit,TU)和物种敏感性分布法(Species Sensitivity Distributions,SSD)评价了两种拟除虫菊酯的生态风险.结果显示,两大流域沉积物中均广泛检测出两类污染物.总体而言,巢湖流域苄氯菊酯含量较高,而太湖流域高效氰戊菊酯含量较高.同时,两种污染物在巢湖流域呈现显著的正相关,但太湖流域二者之间没有相关关系.3种风险评价方法(TU法、沉积物SSD法、水体SSD法)均揭示苄氯菊酯对巢湖流域水生环境影响较大,而高效氰戊菊酯对两个流域影响均较大.因此,需要加强对流域高效氰戊菊酯污染的关注.其中,TU法预测的风险最小,沉积物SSD法预测的风险最大,主要原因在于TU法采用的毒性数据为LC50,而SSD法则选用了NOEC/LOEC,同时沉积物SSD法是出于保护大部分底栖生物为目的的方法.各种方法对于评价沉积物毒害污染物的生态风险均存在不足,尽管沉积物SSD法最为合理,但由于其毒性数据较少,最终预测结果存在一定的不确定性.因此,需要进一步加强对底栖生物毒性的研究和数据积累.     

安溪铁观音茶园土壤重金属赋存形态及生态风险评价

用改进的BCR连续提取法提取安溪铁观音茶园土壤中重金属元素(Li、Fe、Zn、Ba、Sr、Ti、Co、Cr、Cd、Mn、Ni、Pb、V、Mg、Cu)的赋存形态,分析其生物有效性并作出生态风险评价。重金属赋存形态研究结果表明,Cd的形态总体分布为弱酸溶态残渣态可还原态可氧化态,Pb的形态总体分布为可还原态可氧化态弱酸溶态残渣态,Cu的形态总体分布为可还原态可氧化态残渣态弱酸溶态,其余重金属皆以残渣态为主。生物有效性分析结果表明,Pb、Cd、Cu、Mn、Ni、Sr等重金属的潜在生物可利用性较高,其所占百分比分别为90.4%、73.0%、36.6%、32.8%、23.8%、22.9%。对茶园土壤中的重金属作生态风险评价,地累积指数法和潜在生态危害指数法结果均表明,大部分土壤样品是清洁安全的,部分土壤受到Cd元素污染,污染程度达到中度污染级别。