Humanitarian governance and resilience building: Ethiopia in comparative perspective

Humanitarian governance is usually understood according to the classic, Dunantist paradigm that accords central importance to international humanitarian agencies. However, this is increasingly paralleled by ‘resilience humanitarianism’ that focuses, among other things, on including national actors in humanitarian governance. This article views humanitarian governance as emerging through interactions between authorities, implementing agencies and communities. It is based on interactive ethnography in five countries by Partners for Resilience (PfR). Using the Theory of Change (ToC) tool, it analyses the various interpretations and priorities of actors involved in humanitarian problems, solutions and programme governance. For example, PfR had a ‘software’ focus, aiming to unlock communities’ potential for resilience, whereas communities and authorities preferred to receive tangible ‘hardware’ support. The findings highlight the crucial role of local authorities in shaping humanitarian aid. This is especially pertinent in view of the international agenda to localise aid, which requires the understanding and support of national actors in order to responsibly protect the vulnerable.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi-stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro-scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from -1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April-September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non-firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter-dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations.     

应对气候变化法的立法探究

为了实现碳排放达峰目标和碳中和愿景,明确应对气候变化的法律地位、工作目标和法律要求,规定部门职责及温室气体排放权的法律属性与交易机制,分解工作目标并开展评价考核,彰显国家应对气候的法治决心,亟须制定综合性基础法律——应对气候变化法。该法的制定已具备充足的研究起草基础和下位法支撑,建议尽快纳入全国人大常委会立法计划,并启动《环境保护法》等相关法律的修改。本文建议,将低碳发展和碳排放达峰、碳中和等纳入立法目的,设立总则、规划与标准、气候变化减缓、气候变化适应、管理和监督、国际合作、法律责任、附则八章,合理设立规范重点。健全统一监管与部门分工负责的体制和基金筹集、市场交易、社会共治等机制,全面构建国内应对气候变化管理制度体系,部署国际协商与合作措施,设置地方政府工作目标责任,对违法行为规定罚则。     

长山河水质评价及变化趋势分析

以2015 ～2019年长山河4个水质监测站的监测数据为基础,采用综合水质标识指数法对其历年水质进行评价,利用季节性kendall检验法对各监测断面的高锰酸盐指数,氨氮,总磷等3个监测指标变化趋势进行分析.结果 表明:长山河各断面的综合水质均达到或优于水功能区目标要求,水质污染总体呈下降趋势,其中长山河大桥和长山闸一号...     

西安市LUCC预测生态系统服务价值损失

人类活动作用于土地资源,使LUCC（土地利用／土地覆被变化）在全球环境变化过程中起主导作用,随着国际LUCC研究计划的进展,各国依据本国的实际情况开展研究。对西安市以往五年（2000-2004年）的土地利用基础数据开展调查统计分析,建立灰色系统动态GM（1,1）模型,预测2005—2010年西安市土地利用结构变化状况,尝试计算西安市土地生态系统服务价值损失（简称生态损失）,用一种直观经济指标-货币来反映这种生态损失。预测2010年西安市生态损失为331、84×10^6元。     

二类功能区噪声垂直变化特征监测试验研究

通过在二类标准适用区进行不同高度的噪声监测试验,利用获得的监测数据进行统计分析,找出不同高度噪声Leq小时值的统计特征,从而确定二类功能区噪声垂直变化规律。     

Translating habitat class to land cover to map area of habitat of terrestrial vertebrates

Area of habitat (AOH) is defined as the “habitat available to a species, that is, habitat within its range” and is calculated by subtracting areas of unsuitable land cover and elevation from the range. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Habitats Classification Scheme provides information on species habitat associations, and typically unvalidated expert opinion is used to match habitat to land-cover classes, which generates a source of uncertainty in AOH maps. We developed a data-driven method to translate IUCN habitat classes to land cover based on point locality data for 6986 species of terrestrial mammals, birds, amphibians, and reptiles. We extracted the land-cover class at each point locality and matched it to the IUCN habitat class or classes assigned to each species occurring there. Then, we modeled each land-cover class as a function of IUCN habitat with (SSG, using) logistic regression models. The resulting odds ratios were used to assess the strength of the association between each habitat and land-cover class. We then compared the performance of our data-driven model with those from a published translation table based on expert knowledge. We calculated the association between habitat classes and land-cover classes as a continuous variable, but to map AOH as binary presence or absence, it was necessary to apply a threshold of association. This threshold can be chosen by the user according to the required balance between omission and commission errors. Some habitats (e.g., forest and desert) were assigned to land-cover classes with more confidence than others (e.g., wetlands and artificial). The data-driven translation model and expert knowledge performed equally well, but the model provided greater standardization, objectivity, and repeatability. Furthermore, our approach allowed greater flexibility in the use of the results and uncertainty to be quantified. Our model can be modified for regional examinations and different taxonomic groups.     

Detecting Temporal Change in Watershed Nutrient Yields

Meta-analyses reveal that nutrient yields tend to be higher for watersheds dominated by anthropogenic uses (e.g., urban, agriculture) and lower for watersheds dominated by natural vegetation. One implication of this pattern is that loss of natural vegetation will produce increases in watershed nutrient yields. Yet, the same meta-analyses also reveal that, absent land-cover change, watershed nutrient yields vary from one year to the next due to many exogenous factors. The interacting effects of land cover and exogenous factors suggest nutrient yields should be treated as distributions, and the effect of land-cover change should be examined by looking for significant changes in the distributions. We compiled nutrient yield distributions from published data. The published data included watersheds with homogeneous land cover that typically reported two or more years of annual nutrient yields for the same watershed. These data were used to construct statistical models, and the models were used to estimate changes in the nutrient yield distributions as a result of land-cover change. Land-cover changes were derived from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD). Total nitrogen (TN) yield distributions increased significantly for 35 of 1550 watersheds and decreased significantly for 51. Total phosphorus (TP) yield distributions increased significantly for 142 watersheds and decreased significantly for 17. The amount of land-cover change required to produce significant shifts in nutrient yield distributions was not constant. Small land-cover changes led to significant shifts in nutrient yield distributions when watersheds were dominated by natural vegetation, whereas much larger land-cover changes were needed to produce significant shifts when watersheds were dominated by urban or agriculture. We discuss our results in the context of the Clean Water Act.     

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Environmental Impact Assessment of Industrial Structure Change in a Rural Region of China

As the embodiment of human activities, the change of regional industrial structure is an essential driving factor of global environmental change. Consequently, the research on the change of regional industrial structure and associated effects on the environment is one of the key issues of researches on sustainable development, human–environment relationship, and regional response to global environment change. However, compared to the flourish of researches on environmental impact assessment of industrial departments, few studies have been conducted to assess the environmental impact of regional industrial structure. In this study, based on a synthetic analysis of environmental disturbances of different industrial departments, the environmental impact coefficient of industrial department associated with the index of environmental impact of industrial structure was constructed, so as to make a quantitative assessment of environmental impact of the change of regional industrial structure. And the results of the case study in Lijiang City, a rural region of China, have showed that there are two obvious changes of industrial structure in the study area from 1992 to 2003, associated with a continuous decreasing of the index of environmental impact of industrial structure, which indicated a positive environmental effects of the change of regional industrial structure.     

辽宁省土壤水分的时空变化格局分析

文章利用基于微波遥感的土壤水分产品评价辽宁省近40年(1979~2015)来干旱事件的时空变化特征。研究结果表明:辽宁省地表土壤水分呈现东高西低的空间分布;采用了一种具有时-频多分辨功能的小波分析(Wavelet Analysis)来更好地研究土壤水分时间序列变化规律,发现辽宁省年平均土壤水分随着时间具有波动降低趋势,并伴随有10年和20年左右的两个主要周期;从季节上看,四个季节的土壤水分时间序列变化十分剧烈,春夏两季土壤水分呈现出增加趋势,秋冬两季的土壤水分呈现出降低趋势。