Spatial assessment of sea level rise on Martinique’s coastal zone and analysis of planning frameworks for adaptation

Accelerated sea level rise and hurricanes are increasingly influencing human coastal activities. With respect to the projected continuation of accelerated sea level rise and global warming one must count with additional expenses for adaptation strategies along the coasts. On the mountainous island Martinique the majority of settlements are situated along the coast almost at sea level. But potential rises in sea level and its impacts are not addressed in coastal management, even though saltwater intrusion and coastal erosion with increasing offshore loss of sediment are locally already a severe problem. At a sea level rise of 50 cm, one fourth of Martinique’s coastline will be affected by erosion and one fifth of the islands surface will have high probability to get flooded during coastal hazards. This is a growth of 5% of the impact area in comparison to present conditions. This article analyses potential adaptation strategies and argues that the development of a coastal zone management plan considering sea level rise and its impact area is of utmost importance. Empirical assessment models in combination with spatial analysis are useful in obtaining statements about coastal impacts concerning sea level rise. This paper sees itself as recommendation of action not only for Martinique.

Sustainable management of shellfish resources in Bandon Bay, Gulf of Thailand

Bandon Bay (Surat Thani Province) is one of the most productive coastal areas in southern Thailand. The Tapi River and 18 channels are the main sources of freshwater, nutrients, organic matter and sediment to the bay and the loading of freshwater and nutrients provide essential support for the production of phytoplankton in the estuarine ecosystem. Bandon Bay is important as natural spawning, nursery and feeding grounds for shellfish such as oysters, blood cockles, green mussels, short-necked clams, mud crabs and shrimps, and the estuary also serves as an excellent area for mariculturing of shellfish. In fact, oysters and blood cockles cultured in Bandon Bay are now being exported worldwide. However, Bandon Bay is also a textbook example of overexploitation of coastal resources in the tropics including all the derived changes in the estuarial ecosystem with severe socio-economic consequences. Hence, there is an urgent need for setting up an integrated management plant for a sustainable use of shellfish resources in Bandon Bay. The present study attempts to integrate water quality simulation results, socio-economic data and information on existing shellfish resource use in the process of proposing a set of sustainable management strategies for shellfish resources in Bandon Bay. These strategies involve: (1) using water quality modeling to monitor ecological and environmental changes in shellfish culture beds and their natural habitats in the process of setting up a master plan for management of waste water discharge into Bandon Bay; (2) zoning of shellfish mariculture in the coastal area in order to solve conflicts between resource users; (3) setting up a clear system for taxation of mariculture where the revenue may be used for (4) setting up and managing mangrove strips as filters of pollution and sediment around Bandon Bay; and finally (5) it is suggested to form a committee with members representing all relevant stakeholders plus the local government in order to work on resolving the existing and potential future conflicts over resource usage in Bandon Bay. This methodology may be seen as an important contribution towards a Bandon Bay sustainable management approach, based on the principles of integrated coastal zone management because it is science-based and takes into consideration the needs and perceptions of people involved in coastal resource extraction.     

采空区影响条件下巷道围岩应力监测与研究

金属矿采空区多以矿房-矿柱组合的复杂采空群体系构成,这种复杂的空区群结构是一种复合应力拱的承载结构,复合应力拱的成拱机制形成了采场上方覆岩发生拉压破坏模式,进而导致围岩塌陷及巷道破坏;为了监测采空区影响下巷道围岩复合应力变化,提出在巷道内利用锚杆应力计监测围岩复合压力拱应力变化方法,锚杆采用端部锚固结构,埋入深度超过围岩冒落带并施加预应力;根据监测数据分析围岩应力变化可分为递变式、突跳式、振荡式和复合式变化四种变化模式,利用多元回归及突变模型建立围岩应力变化的数学模型,以历史数据为基础,建立以围岩应力极限值、应力变化速率及突变模型势函数临界值为判据的围岩稳定性分析数学模型。     

营运驾驶员驾驶事故影响因素仿真研究

解决营运驾驶员驾驶事故频发的不安全行为问题,基于复杂适应系统（CAS）理论和多主体建模与仿真（ABMS）方法,构建营运驾驶员驾驶事故模型。通过调节车辆状况、管理者管理监督水平、营运驾驶员情绪状态、安全教育水平、驾驶经验和环境综合条件等因素,运用NetLogo仿真平台分析安全管理水平、营运驾驶员安全责任意识、心理负荷水平对驾驶事故的影响。研究表明:营运驾驶员驾驶事故的发生系统是一种典型的CAS,营运驾驶员驾驶事故是三大主体属性和行为环境交互的结果,且交互作用程度不同。因此,运输企业要考虑多种因素,采取相应的措施来降低营运驾驶员驾驶事故的发生。     

重大危险源区域风险评价及监管对策

结合目前重大危险源事故频发的安全生产形势,分析了石油化学工业发展和城市化进程加快所带来的城市区域高风险,阐明了进行区域风险评价和重大危险源监管的必要性.现有区域风险定量评价方法主要有两个主流,分别为基于个人风险和社会风险的方法和基于风险补偿的方法.概要阐述了两种方法的基本原理、评价程序和最终得到的区域风险效果图,对比分析了两种区域风险定量评价方法的适用性.最后从区域规划阶段、运作阶段和应急阶段分别提出了强化重大危险源监管的对策,并阐述了重大危险源区域风险评价和监管的保障机制,以期能够对重大危险源集中区域的规划和监管提供相关的技术支持.     

复杂人机系统班组人误模型与量化分析

讨论一个班组人员行为模型,即包括:任务模型、事件模型、班组模型和人-机交互模型4个模块,并用其模拟和分析事故状态下的运行班组对异常事故的响应过程;利用班组认知过程流程图模型表征事件发展过程中班组成员对事故的征兆识别、决策、计划和行动执行的响应过程;采用CREAM的量化分析技术,对核电站的蒸汽发生器管道破管事故的班组认知失误事件进行量化分析。     

基于能值分析的西安市三个发展核心区可持续性研究

本文基于能值分析和城市复合生态系统的理论与方法,从生态环境系统及社会经济系统两方面,对西安市灞桥区、雁塔区和未央区2014年的基础数据进行计算整理,通过分析三个发展核心区的能值利用效率,排除废物流能值对系统的消极影响,构建基于能值利用效率(EUE)的系统可持续发展程度指标(EUSDI),确切评估三个区城市复合生态系统的可持续发展能力。结果表明:灞桥区可持续发展指数为0.1545,雁塔区为0.0906,未央区为0.0579。灞桥区能值利用效率为较高的94.81%,可更新资源较为丰富,但较为依赖不可更新资源与外部输入产品;雁塔区能值利用效率为较低的86.57%,社会经济发展程度较高,但可更新资源较贫乏,人口过于集中对环境造成很大压力;未央区能值利用率为较低的84.93%,该区可更新资源较少,工业生产消耗大量不可更新资源,"三废"的排放也严重影响了该区的生态环境。     

2000—2015年深圳市建设用地坡谱演变研究

在受地形约束的快速城市化地区,建设用地水平扩张常伴有垂直爬坡过程。通过分析建设用地坡谱曲线形态及其变化特征,有助于认识该过程的时空分异及演变规律,进而科学指导相关国土规划实践。论文以深圳市及其所辖10个区为例,利用DEM及2000—2015年遥感影像构建地面坡谱和4期建设用地坡谱,借助陡峭度、均匀度、累加关键值等坡谱研究手段,分析该市建设用地坡谱演变特征。结果表明：深圳市建设用地坡谱变化特征总体表现为爬坡与填海共存,且以爬坡为主,总体爬坡速度保持相对稳定;该市各辖区建设用地坡谱曲线呈现不同变化特征,可归纳为爬坡主导型、填海主导型、混合型和稳定型;各辖区建设用地布局均集中于平缓区域,建设用地上坡程度整体属于轻度至中度,建设用地主流上限坡度分布范围为4°~14°,建设用地极端上限坡度分布范围为7°~20°。深圳市仍将面临建设用地继续爬坡的压力,相关坡度上限标准的科学制定与严格执行是把控建设用地爬坡进程的关键。     

山区小城镇生态化发展探析——以株洲市炎陵县下村乡为例

山区小城镇的生态化建设在中国山区的城镇建设中有着重要的指导性意义。株洲市炎陵县山区小城镇生态化建设是推进农村环境保护工作,长株潭城市群两型社会建设的重要举措。结合山区城镇特有的地形和生态特征,以株洲市炎陵县下村乡为例,尝试从生态城镇的三个结构构成部分：经济系统、社会系统和自然生态系统现状进行分析,明确山区城镇发展中存在的不足和有待进一步挖掘的发展优势,提出相应的山区城镇建设策略,来探讨山区小城镇生态化建设的途径。     

广东的滨海沙土资源

滨海沙土是广东沿海重要而急待改造利用的一种国土资源。分布广、面积大,风沙为害较甚。它集中分布在琼东北和西南部、陆丰至海丰、阳江至广州湾沿岸一带。主要因河流和地表径流携带的泥沙受潮浪、风力作用逐渐发育而成。按形成时间和特性,可分流动、半固定、固定和耕型沙土等亚类。并具有沙瘦的共同特性。改造利用主要措施是营林绿化。其次,是因地制宜地积极发展果蔬、热作等经济作物,改造沙荒草地,发展畜牧业,施肥改土,兴修水利和开发其旅游资源。