无尾河下游湿地重金属污染评价

以无尾河下游漫流区———向海地区沼泽湿地为研究对象,通过对沼泽垂直剖面的精细采样,将放射性核素精确计年与重金属污染评价相结合,进行高分辨率剖析。在对其典型剖面沉积物重金属元素进行Al归一化的基础上,应用上下层比较法、富集系数法和地累积指数法3种评价方法对沉积物重金属污染富集水平及污染时序进行分析比较。结果表明,沼泽湿地沉积物表层已明显富集了重金属元素,达一定污染水平,这显示近20a霍林河流域上、中游人类活动对下游湿地的扰动增强。     

Fecundity as a Basis for Risk Assessment of Nonindigenous Freshwater Molluscs

Abstract:  The most efficient way to reduce future damages from nonindigenous species is to prevent the introduction of harmful species. Although ecologists have long sought to predict the identity of such species, recent methodological advances promise success where previous attempts failed. We applied recently developed risk assessment approaches to nonindigenous freshwater molluscs at two geographic scales: the Laurentian Great Lakes basin and the 48 contiguous states of the United States. We used data on natural history and biogeography to discriminate between established freshwater molluscs that are benign and those that constitute nuisances (i.e., cause environmental and/or economic damage). Two statistical techniques, logistic regression and categorical tree analysis, showed that nuisance status was positively associated with fecundity. Other aspects of natural history and biogeography did not significantly affect likelihood of becoming a nuisance. We then used the derived statistical models to predict the chance that 15 mollusc species not yet in natural ecosystems would cause damage if they become established. We also tested whether time since establishment is related to the likelihood that nonindigenous mollusc species in the Great Lakes and United States would cause negative impacts. No significant relationship was evident at the U.S. scale, but recently established molluscs within the Great Lakes were more likely to cause negative impacts. This may reflect changing environmental conditions, changing patterns of trade, or may be an indication of "invasional meltdown." Our quantitative analyses could be extended to other taxa and ecosystems and offer a number of improvements over the qualitative risk assessments currently used by U.S. (and other) government agencies.     

Incorporating the Effects of Socioeconomic Uncertainty into Priority Setting for Conservation Investment

Abstract:  Uncertainty in the implementation and outcomes of conservation actions that is not accounted for leaves conservation plans vulnerable to potential changes in future conditions. We used a decision-theoretic approach to investigate the effects of two types of investment uncertainty on the optimal allocation of global conservation resources for land acquisition in the Mediterranean Basin. We considered uncertainty about (1) whether investment will continue and (2) whether the acquired biodiversity assets are secure, which we termed transaction uncertainty and performance uncertainty, respectively. We also developed and tested the robustness of different rules of thumb for guiding the allocation of conservation resources when these sources of uncertainty exist. In the presence of uncertainty in future investment ability (transaction uncertainty), the optimal strategy was opportunistic, meaning the investment priority should be to act where uncertainty is highest while investment remains possible. When there was a probability that investments would fail (performance uncertainty), the optimal solution became a complex trade-off between the immediate biodiversity benefits of acting in a region and the perceived longevity of the investment. In general, regions were prioritized for investment when they had the greatest performance certainty, even if an alternative region was highly threatened or had higher biodiversity value. The improved performance of rules of thumb when accounting for uncertainty highlights the importance of explicitly incorporating sources of investment uncertainty and evaluating potential conservation investments in the context of their likely long-term success.     

易燃、易爆重大危险源评价的计算机系统设计

论述了重大危险源评价模型用计算机实现的方法和技术,给出了评价系统的模块划分及部分算法的编程技巧,列举了用此算法建立的计算机评价系统的部分运行示例     

南京地区农业资源的综合评价研究

客观、准确地评价地区农业资源,对于农业资源的开发和利用具有重要意义。本文从系统论观点出发,将地区农业资源分成自然资源和社会资源,在能够较好地反映系统结构特征、不同样点差异及满足易于收集、便于数量表示和定量处理等基本要求的基础上,选择了若干评价指标。利用综合指数法、区位商法等评价方法,对南京地区的主要农业资源（土地资源、气候资源与社会资源）进行了定量分析,并在此基础上,利用资源优势度分析法进行了综合评价。结果表明,南部小区的农业资源具有整体优势,南部和中部的资源利用较为合理,北部小区则具有较为丰富的后备资源。最后,根据各地资源要素的不同组合,简要给出了较适宜的开发途径,为该地农业资源的进一步开发与利用提供了依据。     

我国城市地价评估模型及其空间分布规律研究

本文以城市地价产生地区差异的理论分析为依据,提出了城市地价的主要影响因素、因子,并以城市土地批租资料为基础运用逐步回归分析方法建立城市地价评估模型。根据模型估测了我国５１７个城市１９９２年的地价水平,最后分析了我国城市地价空间分布的规律及其未来走势展望。     

斜坡稳定性的二级模糊推断

根据对斜坡稳定性影响的大小,选取了七个主要因于,引用了山西明水河流域几个斜坡样点实测数据．应用模糊近似推论方法及信息分配原理,对斜坡稳定性进行了单因子灰色隶属度分析及综合二级模糊近似推论,该方法克服了传统单因子评价的弊端,能比较真实地反映实际,为布设护坡工程提供了理论依据。     

陕西省干旱灾害的农业风险评估

分析了陕西干旱发生的时空规律,以缺水率划分干旱标准,评价陕西各季农业干旱状况,并对1949～1990年共42a粮食产量序列进行滑动平均模拟,以粮食减产百分率评估全省干旱灾害等级,得出干旱损失评估模式,使陕西干旱灾害的评估由定性到定量,为其它灾害的定量评估提供了经验。     

环境风险评价研究进展

重大环境污染事故常伴有人员伤亡,给社会、经济、人群健康和环境带来巨大破坏,环境风险评价是预防环境污染事故并提供有效应急措施的必要工作.对环境风险评价发展的三个阶段:健康风险评价、事故风险评价和综合风险评价进行了总结,并分析其研究进展、评价方法和研究不足之处,最后探讨了环境风险评价与环境风险管理的关系.结果表明,在未来几十年内,区域环境风险、长期环境风险、不确定性处理和环境毒理学、环境流行病学等方面将成为环境风险评价的重点研究领域.     

GIS在城市重大危险源管理中的应用

在传统的危险源评价方法中 ,有关事故的空间信息常常未受到足够的重视。通过 GIS进行风险源管理 ,将能方便地表示城市各重大危险源的地理位置情况 ,和对危险源信息的录入、检查及查询 ;利用 GIS进行风险地图绘制 ,可以图示市区内不同地段或区域的相对风险大小 ,辅助城市管理者进行工厂选址与设计、区域和土地使用决策、危险物质运输路线确定等 ;在紧急事故发生时 ,GIS结合事故分析模型和专家系统能够加快事故处理方案的制定和执行