Conflict and Impacts of Divers and Anglers in a Marine Park

The New South Wales State Government (Australia) gazetted the Jervis Bay Marine Park (JBMP) in 1998. During the preparation of the draft zoning plan in 2000, societal data on two conflicting park user groups—recreational scuba divers and fishers (anglers)—was collected. While conflict resolution was a plan priority, other factors, such as cumulative environmental impacts of users and protection for the critically endangered grey nurse shark (Carcharias taurus), further complicated planning. Both scuba diving and angling are primary summer activities and are disproportionately concentrated around the headlands of the bay. Furthermore, shore based game-fishing was concentrated on the northern headland, where the conflict was centered. However, when the exact locations of divers and anglers were determined, there was a partial partitioning of the available space, with only a small contested overlap. To resolve conflict and maximize positive environmental outcomes, a sanctuary zone and no-anchoring zone option in the draft zoning plan was sought to formalize this partition. The human dimension data proved valuable in guiding environmental management in this politically volatile situation. A baseline study conducted 11 years previously was also used to gain a limited perspective on change in user numbers. Comparison between study periods indicated dive numbers had remained similar, while the number of dive charter trips was significantly less. The numbers of anglers, for the four months compared, had doubled and tripled. The actual data used to inform management is presented and the limitations of this best available data approach are discussed.     

TURBULENCE IN MIRAMICHI BAY: THE BURNT CHURCH CONFLICT OVER NATIVE FISHING RIGHTS1

Abstract: A systematic technique is proposed for assisting in the design and implementation of policy and addressing the need to minimize or resolve disputes that may arise in the enforcement of regulations. The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution is a methodology that facilitates the modeling and analysis of interactive multiple participant-multiple objective decision problems. In the problems considered here, decision makers and policy planners engaged in capacity building typically have different viewpoints over appropriate ways of developing options and enforcing policy choices. Incompatible understandings of resource potentials and limits, and disparities in utilization of these resources, exasperate stakeholders and make the capacity building process counterproductive and even conducive to conflict. A systematic conflict resolution technique is invaluable to policy makers and practitioners in defusing confrontations and reaching out for consensus among participants. In support of current approaches to policy planning and regulation, the Graph Model provides accurate predictions and strategic insights into shortand long-term opportunities in multiple participant-multiple objective decision situations. A conflict among the government of Canada, the Mi'kmaq First Nation, and commercial fishermen over the sharing of a natural resource in New Brunswick, Canada, is used to illustrate the advantages of this technique in practical problems.     

Science, Policy, and Stakeholders: Developing a Consensus Science Plan for Amchitka Island, Aleutians, Alaska

With the ending of the Cold War, the US Department of Energy is responsible for the remediation of radioactive waste and disposal of land no longer needed for nuclear material production or related national security missions. The task of characterizing the hazards and risks from radionuclides is necessary for assuring the protection of health of humans and the environment. This is a particularly daunting task for those sites that had underground testing of nuclear weapons, where the radioactive contamination is currently inaccessible. Herein we report on the development of a Science Plan to characterize the physical and biological marine environment around Amchitka Island in the Aleutian chain of Alaska, where three underground nuclear tests were conducted (1965–1971). Information on the ecology, geology, and current radionuclide levels in biota, water, and sediment is necessary for evaluating possible current contamination and to serve as a baseline for developing a plan to ensure human and ecosystem health in perpetuity. Other information required includes identifying the location of the salt water/fresh water interface where migration to the ocean might occur in the future and determining groundwater recharge balances, as well as assessing other physical/geological features of Amchitka near the test sites. The Science Plan is needed to address the confusing and conflicting information available to the public about radionuclide risks from underground nuclear blasts in the late 1960s and early 1970s, as well as the potential for volcanic or seismic activity to disrupt shot cavities or accelerate migration of radionuclides into the sea. Developing a Science Plan involved agreement among regulators and other stakeholders, assignment of the task to the Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation, and development of a consensus Science Plan that dealt with contentious scientific issues. Involvement of the regulators (State of Alaska), resource trustees (U S Fish and Wildlife Service), representatives of the Aleut and Pribilof Island communities, and other stakeholders was essential for plan development and approval, although this created tensions because of the different objectives of each group. The complicated process of developing a Science Plan involved iterations and interactions with multiple agencies and organizations, scientists in several disciplines, regulators, and the participation of Aleut people in their home communities, as well as the general public. The importance of including all parties in all phases of the development of the Science Plan was critical to its acceptance by a broad range of regulators, agencies, resource trustees, Aleutian/Pribilof communities, and other stakeholders.     

Building Consensus in Environmental Impact Assessment Through Multicriteria Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) increasingly is being applied in environmental impact assessment (EIA). In this article, two MCDA techniques, stochastic analytic hierarchy process and compromise programming, are combined to ascertain the environmental impacts of and to rank two alternative sites for Mexico City’s new airport. Extensive sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the probability of changes in rank ordering given uncertainty in the hierarchy structure, decision criteria weights, and decision criteria performances. Results demonstrate that sensitivity analysis is fundamental for attaining consensus among members of interdisciplinary teams and for settling debates in controversial projects. It was concluded that sensitivity analysis is critical for achieving a transparent and technically defensible MCDA implementation in controversial EIA.     

基于中国出口产品在国际贸易摩擦中的风险研究

进入21世纪以来,国际贸易摩擦已成为各国经济发展中难以避免的问题,随着中国在国际贸易领域中的迅速发展,中国与其他国家的贸易摩擦也不断出现,为此所承担的风险也越来越大。笔者对中国在国际贸易中出现的摩擦的表象成因进行了认真、深刻的分析,从8个方面提出了中国防范国际贸易摩擦风险的对策:行使世贸组织赋予的权利,处理多种贸易纠纷;完善我国对外贸易法律体制,建立合乎国际惯例的贸易救济体系;建立产业投资损害预警机制,减少因盲目投资带来的风险损失;加大技术开发力度,促进产业升级与产品档次的提高;转变政府职能,运用国际惯例调控贸易经济;企业练好国际市场竞争的内功,提高防范贸易摩擦风险的能力;强化行业协会职能,协调对内、对外关系;慎重处理好人民币汇率升值与汇率机制问题。同时,就中国出口产品在国际贸易摩擦中应注意的问题,也提出了尽快制定《反垄断法》、积极参与国际多边谈判等4个方面的建议。     

模糊灰色关联法在分析安全投资因素与效益关系中的应用

灰色关联分析法存在分辨系数的选取主观性较大,比较序列曲线空间位置不同以及因素权重归一化而影响关联度,取平均值求关联度影响评价准确性等缺点。笔者采用线性变换及合理判定分辨系数的方法,确定了改进的关联系数,提出了改进的灰色关联分析法。在明确安全投资的基本内涵及构成的基础上,运用该法可计算出来影响安全投资效益因素的灰色关联度,以进行分析,找出企业安全投资合理的方向,从而可以提高企业安全投资的效益。实例分析表明,该法简便实用,可靠准确,对分析安全投资效益影响因素有较好适用性。     

DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION OF MULTIPLE‐OBJECTIVE DECISION‐MAKING METHODS FOR WATERSHED MANAGEMENT PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: Making decisions for environmental management is a complex task due to the multiplicity and diversity of technological choices. Furthermore, the exploitation of natural resources and the preservation of the natural environment imply objectives that are often in conflict within a sustainable development paradigm. Managers and other decision makers require techniques to assist them in understanding strategic decision making. This paper illustrates the use of a multiple‐objective decision‐making methodology and an integrative geographical information system‐based decision‐making tool developed to help watershed councils prioritize and evaluate restoration activities at the watershed level. Both were developed through a multidisciplinary approach. The decision‐making tool is being applied in two watersheds of Oregon's Willamette River Basin. The results suggest that multiple‐objective methods can provide a valuable tool in analyzing complex watershed management issues.     

A GAME THEORY APPROACH TO DECIDING WHO WILL SUPPLY INSTREAM FLOW WATER1

ABSTRACT: The resource management problem for the Middle Platte ecosystem is the insufficient water available to meet both instream ecological demands and out‐of‐stream economic needs. This problem of multiple interest groups competing for a limited resource is compounded by sharp disagreement in the scientific community over endangered species' needs for instream flows. In this study, game theory was used to address one dimension of this resource management problem. A sequential auction with repeated bidding was used to determine how much instream flow water each of three states — Colorado, Nebraska, and Wyoming — will provide and at what price. The results suggest that the use of auction mechanisms can improve the prospects for reaching a multi‐state agreement on who will supply instream flow water, if the auction is structured to discourage misrepresentation of costs and if political compensation is allowed.     

基于图像的火焰锋面法向速度场测量研究

火焰锋面是火焰的重要组成部分,反映了火焰的燃烧特性。针对传统方法测量火焰锋面速度场分辨率较低的问题,提出来了基于图像法测量火焰锋面法向速度场的方法。使用高速相机拍摄了多帧连续图像,提取火焰锋面,通过最小二乘法拟合锋面的切线,从而计算出每个点的法向速度,并进一步分析了火焰振荡的性质。实验表明该方法能够有效测量双瓦楞纸板产生的火焰在不同时刻的速度场,具有高分辨率、全场测量的特点,为其进一步推广提供了实验基础。     

哈尔滨松北区2007年春季可吸入颗粒物PM10的粒度分布及来源分析

通过使用高分辨率扫描电镜和图象分析技术对哈尔滨市松北区春季大气可吸入颗粒物PM10微观形貌和粒度分布进行了分析。初步得出哈尔滨松北区PM10的矿物多以不规则的形式存在,且多是来自扬尘的原生矿物;根据粒度分布特征得知,矿物颗粒的数量-粒度分布非常大;飞灰和烟尘集合体的数量-粒度分布较大,说明它们多以微小细颗粒物的形式存在。