Building consensus on divisive issues: a case study of the Yukon wolf management team

This article presents a case study of a successful effort to reach agreement on one of the most intractable environmental issues of our time: wolf management. This case is unusual in several ways. In this case, the members of the negotiating team were ordinary citizens rather than leaders of organized groups. This team was given an unusually high level of authority to write the plan as they saw fit; the agency pledged to implement “whatever they came up with.” The agency convened the process, but agency personnel were not members of the team and attended only when they were invited. The team members were able to reach agreement on this tough issue even though polar opposites were at the table—one who felt that wolves are a “spiritual essence” and another who felt that, as he put it, “wolves, coyotes, and cockroaches have a lot in common”. They produced a detailed plan that addressed all the issues in just 5 months. Another unusual aspect of this effort is that the final agreement does not list the team members. They explained that they wanted their plan to “stand alone” and be judged based on what it said, not on who was involved.However, just after their agreement was completed, a new, pro-wolf control government was elected that refused to endorse the plan. While the government gave various reasons for not ratifying the plan, more and more diverse interest groups came out in support for both the plan and the process that created it. Eventually, overwhelming public support forced the government to sign and implement the plan as written. This demonstrates that, while it is important for a team to seek the sanction of decision-makers, it is perhaps even more important for the general public to see the effort and the final agreement as fair. Strong support from a broad spectrum of the public can help win the necessary political support.In addition to discussing the unorthodox aspects of this consensus-building effort, this article also attempts to give the reader a front row seat to this process by using the informants' own words—words rich in detail, brimming with color and spoken straight from the heart. Certainly their experience dispels any notion that such efforts are simply a matter of following a recipe. During the process, members of the negotiating team experienced the entire gamut of emotions—anger, defeat, humor and, finally, a genuine sense of pride. As team member Patty Denison put it, “We showed that a random group of people could work together and do something truly monumental.”     

基于TOPAZ的无人机冲突解脱安全评估技术

针对当前无人机空域运行安全评估体系缺乏的现状,利用TOPAZ构建了一种用于无人机飞行冲突解脱技术的安全评估体系。构造了无人机的空域运行环境,加入单机45°交叉相遇、90°交叉相遇和双机同时交叉相遇的冲突场景。选取一种典型的无人机冲突解脱算法作为安全评估对象,依据TOPAZ的评估流程展开了系统的评估,得出冲突解脱算法的安全水平。对冲突解脱算法提出了改进方案,加入了动态的启发式因子,有效提高了冲突解脱技术的安全性能。通过基于TOPAZ的迭代评估过程进一步找出了无人机冲突解脱算法的安全瓶颈所在,证实了当前各类冲突解脱技术还无法满足有人机与无人机共域飞行的安全需要。     

基于博弈论的安全决策信息融合

安全信息融合的研究涉及多源信息的表示、内在联系和运动规律的研究。冗余和互补的多源信息在融合系统中不可避免地存在着相互竞争和协同作用,因而多源融合系统中的信息冲突与合作的分析成为信息融合理论研究中的核心与实质问题。博弈理论对冲突和合作局势分析与研究提供了一种定量工具,其研究成果成功地解释了多局中人在“交互决策”过程如何构造博弈的“均衡点”,以及“均衡点”所具有的各种特性。笔者在研究了博弈理论的基础上,以博弈论的观点和方法解决安全信息融合系统冲突信息环境下的融合系统决策问题,并建立了相应的模型并应用了融合算法。     

Species of the Month: Anti-Whaling,Mediated Visibility,and the News

Paul Watson, founder of the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society and captain of anti-whaling ship the Steve Irwin, has emerged as one of the world's most visible environmental protesters. This essay, based in part on a long interview with Watson in Australia in 2009, analyzes his mediated visibility and thus capacity to participate in public debate by isolating various components of his strategic activities under four themes: mediated protest, symbolic power, media practices, and celebrity. It argues that Watson's visibility involves a complex flow of information and meanings across various “old” and “new” media form, but remains reliant on news media. Thus, despite his generally astute media practices and strategies, Watson's visibility is contingent on a set of professional practices and logics unlikely to provide sustained news access or long-term legitimacy to a political “outsider.”     

Public perception of locally unwanted facilities in Hong Kong: implications for conflict resolution

This paper aims to investigate factors affecting public attitude towards the siting of locally unwanted land uses (LULUs) and to explore the possible strategies to resolve such conflicts. Three questionnaire surveys were undertaken in communities with different siting experiences and socio-economic profiles. Over 750 individuals were successfully interviewed in each study district. The three communities were found to share similar risk beliefs but show variations in the level of awareness of and response to LULUs. In communities with a disproportionate share of LULUs, many residents did not trust the government in handling LULU issues and thought that the siting process was unfair. The results of the binary logistic regression analysis show that people are likely to oppose the siting of a LULU in their community if they have a negative siting experience, do not perceive the need, accord a high risk to the facility and have a low level of trust in government. The resolution strategies preferred by the public are greater public participation and effective mitigation of risks and impacts, rather than provision of compensation and incentives. All these call for policy-makers to be sensitive to local concerns, engage the public in the process, communicate risks effectively and foster trust building.     

Sustainable development as a policy guide: an application to affordable housing in island communities

This article uses sustainability as a lens through which to examine affordable housing policies in geographically-isolated island communities, with the intent of assessing the utility of using sustainable development as a guide to policy decision-making. Focusing on the case of Key West, Florida, the article points to the conflicts that must be reconciled to achieve true sustainability. The study applies criteria to identify policy solutions for the provision and retention of affordable housing in island communities, and at the same time provides an application of the sustainable development concept as a policy guide. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Interactive two-stage stochastic fuzzy programming for water resources management

In this study, an interactive two-stage stochastic fuzzy programming (ITSFP) approach has been developed through incorporating an interactive fuzzy resolution (IFR) method within an inexact two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) framework. ITSFP can not only tackle dual uncertainties presented as fuzzy boundary intervals that exist in the objective function and the left- and right-hand sides of constraints, but also permit in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic penalties when the promised policy targets are violated. A management problem in terms of water resources allocation has been studied to illustrate applicability of the proposed approach. The results indicate that a set of solutions under different feasibility degrees has been generated for planning the water resources allocation. They can help the decision makers (DMs) to conduct in-depth analyses of tradeoffs between economic efficiency and constraint-violation risk, as well as enable them to identify, in an interactive way, a desired compromise between satisfaction degree of the goal and feasibility of the constraints (i.e., risk of constraint violation).     

Influence of grain size on species-habitat models

High resolution remote sensing data facilitate the use of small-scale habitat features such as trees or hedges in the analysis of species-habitat relationships. Such data potentially enable more accurate species-habitat mapping than lower resolution data. Here, for the first time, we systematically investigated this hypothesis by altering the spatial resolution from 1 m up to 1000 m grain size in species-habitat models of 13 bird species. The study area covered the Nidda river catchment in central Germany, a large heterogeneous landscape of 1620 km². A high resolution habitat map of the area was converted to coarser spatial and thematic resolutions in seven steps. We investigated how model performance responded to grain size, and we compared the differential effects of spatial resolution and thematic resolution on model performance. Explained deviance (D²) of the bird models generally decreased with coarser spatial resolution of the data, although it did not decrease monotonically in all species. On average across all species, model D² decreased from 41.5 at 1 m grain size to 15.9 at 1000 m grain size. Ten species were best modelled at 1 m, two species at 3 m and one species at 32 m grain size. Model performance degraded continuously with increasing grain size, both in habitat generalist and habitat specialist bird species, and was systematically lower in habitat generalists. The higher model performance observed at finer grain sizes was most likely caused by the combination of three factors: (1) high spatial accuracy of bird records and (2) a more precise location and delineation of habitat features and, (3) to a lesser degree, by more habitat types differentiated in maps of finer resolution. We conclude that higher spatial and thematic resolution data can be essential for deriving accurate predictions on bird distribution patterns from species-habitat models. Especially for bird species that are sensitive to specific land-use types or to small-scaled habitat features, a grain size of 1-3 m seems most promising.     

FORUM: The Converging Dynamics of Interest Representation in Resources Management

/ The role of the public in resource management has undergone aprofound transformation over the past two decades. Public input has evolvedfrom the enthusiasm for the widespread emergence public participation in theearly 1970s, through the realization of the relative effectiveness and costsof lobbying activities in the 1980s, to the emergence of environmentaldispute resolution (EDR) as a promising new alternative for the 1990s.Throughout this changing dynamic, there has been little attention tofundamental conception. This paper addresses this lack of conceptualization.A model of convergence is proposed to explain this transformation and as thebasis for an improved understanding of effective interest representationstrategies. The defining characteristics of lobbying, public participation,and environmental dispute resolution in resources management are outlinedrelative to the publics they involve, interest activity, organization,influence on policy, participatory features, and empowerment. Knowledge ofthese aspects will further aid in the identification and implementation ofeffective strategies to interest representation on a context-specific basis.KEY WORDS: Interest representation; Public participation; Disputeresolution; Lobbying; Resource management