EVALUATION OF PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS IN PRECIPITATION MODELS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST1

ABSTRACT: Recent work has found that a one-parameter Weibull model of wet day precipitation amount based on the Weibull distribution provides a better fit to historical daily precipitation data for eastern U.S. sites than other one-parameter models. The general two-parameter Weibull distribution was compared in this study to other widely used distributions for describing the distribution of daily precipitation event sizes at 99 sites from the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Surprisingly little performance was sacrificed by reducing the two-parameter Weibull to a single-parameter distribution. Advantages of the single-parameter model included requiring only the mean wet day precipitation amount for calibration, invertibility for simulation purposes, and ease of analytical manipulation. The fit of the single-parameter Weibull to the 99 stations included in this study was significantly better than other single-parameter models tested, and performed as well as the widely endorsed, more cumbersome, two-parameter gamma model. Both the one-and two-parameter Weibull distributions are shown to have b-moments that are consistent with historical precipitation data, while the ratio of b-skew and b-variance in the gamma model is inconsistent with the historical recerd by this measure. In addition, it was found that the two-parameter gamma distribution was better fit using the method of moments estimators than maximum likelihood estimates. These findings suggested that the distribution in precipitation among sites in the Pacific Northwest with dramatically different settings are nearly identical if expressed in proportion to the mean site event size.     

Effects of Tracking by Armored Vehicles on Townsend's Ground Squirrels in the Orchard Training Area, Idaho, USA

Spermophilus townsendii ) prey. These changes could occur directly or as a result of changes in the vegetation available as food and cover for the ground squirrels. We assessed the effects of long-term tracking by armored vehicles by comparing 9-ha areas in sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) -dominated shrubsteppe and bluegrass (Poa secunda) -dominated grasslands subjected to low-intensity tracking for ∼50 years with others that had not been tracked. We did not detect any effect on ground squirrel population dynamics associated with long-term tracking. Although densities of adults and juveniles tended to be higher in the areas exposed to such tracking, we attribute this difference to other factors that varied spatially. To determine short-term (two-year) effects, we experimentally tracked two sagebrush and two grassland sites with an M-1 tank after animals had begun their inactive season. In the following two active seasons we monitored squirrel demography and behavior and vegetative characteristics on the experimentally tracked sites and compared the results with control sites. Although we experimentally tracked ∼33% of the surface of each of four sites where ground squirrel densities were assessed, the tracking had a detectable effect only on some herbaceous perennials and did not influence ground squirrel densities or behavior significantly during the subsequent two active seasons. We conclude that tracking after the start of the inactive season is likely to influence ground squirrel demography or behavior only if vegetation cover is substantially changed by decreasing coverage of preferred food plants or increasing the coverage of annual grasses and forbs that are succulent for only a short time each year.     

ESTIMATING ANNUAL FLOOD PROBABILITIES USING FOURIER SERIES METHOD1

ABSTRACT: The Fourier series method is proposed as a feasible non-parametric approach for the estimation of the density and distribution functions of annual floods. Clearly, the goodness of fit to empirical data improves as higher Fourier terms are incorporated, and the choice of a higher term depends on whether the inclusion of this term will reduce the fitting error to within a specified tolerance level. This method was applied to the flood data from eight rivers, and to data simulated from known distributions. The results are clearly better than other parametric methods, just like other non-parametric techniques currently used to estimate annual flood probabilities.     

PARAMETRIC/NONPARAMETRIC MIXTURE DENSITY ESTIMATION WITH APPLICATION TO FLOOD-FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

Much attention has been invested in the model choice problem for peak annual flows, in the context of flood frequency analysis. The authors would sidestep this dilemma through non-parametric density estimation methodology, but recognize that the standard nonparametric estimators preclude the use of prior information and related data, and furthermore have virtually no tail at all. Here we offer a remedy for these inadequacies by introducing an estimator which mixes parametric and nonparametric density estimates. We prove that our mixture rule is consistent. By this procedure, we do allow incorporation of prior information, experience, and regional data information, but nevertheless provide a safeguard against incorrect model choice.     

人口密度对森林火灾发生频率的影响

人类活动是引发森林火灾的主要原因之一，在中国、日本等国家，90％以上的森林火灾是由人为因素引起的。为了量化人类活动对森林火灾的影响，本文基于日本的三级网格系统，对日本全国范围内近年来的森林火灾数据、土地利用率数据和人口密度数据进行了综合分析，研究了人口密度对火灾发生频率的定量影响规律。结果表明：森林火灾发生频率与人口密度之间呈现出幂律关系，经过一步的分析，发现两者之间存在具有边界效应的简单关系，即渐近幂律分布。本文的研究结果对于森林火灾的防治，特别是对于火险的预测具有实用意义。     

华东地区地震目录的完全性分析

按照文献 [1]提出的分析方法 ,对华东地区地震发生率进行了统计修补 ,由此得到华东地区地震发生的概率密度分布。其结果对地震活动性研究和地震危险区的划分具有一定意义。在地震目录分段分析研究中 ,引入了Fisher的时序分割法     

Distribution,source, and ecological risk assessment of PAHs among size and density fractions in contaminated sediments from the Yellow River of Henan section

This study investigated particle size and density distributions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in two surface sediments (JZ and KF), collected from the Yellow River of Henan section, China. The concentrations of Σ₁₅PAHs ranged from 35.6 to 45862?ng g^?1 dry wt, which were greatly elevated in coarse particles and low-density fractions. The Σ₁₅PAHs concentrations in low-density fractions were 533 (JZ) and 996 (KF) times higher than those in the corresponding high-density fractions. However, due to relatively less quantities of low-density fractions (0.27–2.33%), most of the PAHs were contributed by the high-density components. For both sediments, the influence factors of PAHs source in the environment were very complex, more so than the level of TOC and BC content. JZ sediment was dominated by 4-ring to 6-ring PAHs (61.5–75.1%), while, 2-ring to 3-ring PAHs were abundant in KF samples (39.8–72.6%). Ratios of specific PAHs reflected PAHs among the size- and density-fraction of each sediment may be contaminated by mixed of pyrolytic and petrogenic origin. Additionally, ecological risk assessment of PAHs suggested that total toxic equivalent values of PAHs in the low-density fractions were much higher than those of the corresponding high-density fractions in the studied area.     

滆湖藻密度的时空分布及驱动因子分析

在2年内分季度调查滆湖浮游植物种群和水环境因子,分析藻密度的空间分布状况以及按时间序列的藻密度变化和浮游植物优势种群变化,分别采用"多元线性逐步回归法"和"偏相关系数法"进行藻密度驱动因子识别。结果表明,滆湖藻密度空间分布趋势为由北向南逐渐升高,年际间季节差异极显著。浮游植物的演替规律为冬、春季节以绿藻和硅藻为主,夏、秋季节蓝藻占绝对优势。通过比较2种统计方法的计算结果,确定全湖及中、南部湖区藻密度的驱动因子是温度和高锰酸盐指数,北部湖区藻密度的驱动因子是温度和硝酸盐氮,所有驱动因子对滆湖藻密度的影响均为正效应。在富营养化严重的滆湖,N,P营养盐已经不再是浮游植物生长的主要驱动因子,从统计方法的角度解释了部分环境因子没有入选为驱动因子的原因,并推断了其他可能的驱动因子。     

废弃中密度纤维板制备活性炭

以磷酸为活化剂、废弃中密度板木粉为原料制备活性炭(AC),采用正交实验得出制备AC的最佳工艺条件:磷酸质量浓度为813.43 g/L,浸渍比(木粉与磷酸的质量比)为4.5:1,浸渍时间为12 h,活化温度为500 ℃,活化时间为2 h.在此条件下AC得率为40.67%,碘吸附值为934.56 mg/g,亚甲基蓝吸附值为172.5 mg/g,焦糖脱色率为100%.采用3 g AC处理150 mL实际水样,COD去除率为84.50%,NH_3-N去除率为61.70%,色度去除率为86.88%,浊度去除率为82.80%,悬浮物去除率为80.98%.     

盐碱池塘底栖动物的初步研究

研究了不同放养模式的高青盐碱池塘底栖动物的种类组成、生物量及其季节变动。结果表明,盐碱池塘底栖动物群落结构简单,主要优势种是羽摇蚊幼虫和奥特开水丝蚓,底栖动物密度和生物量无鱼对照池比养鱼池高得多,平均密度（nar/m^-2）和生物量（ρA/g m^-2）分别为1103（40－2085）m^-2和4.61(0.15-12.91)g m^-2,养地池底栖动物nar/m^-2和ρA/g m^-2分别为54－161m^-1和0.14-0.54g m^-2。底栖动物密度和生物量在春夏之交有一高峰,对盐碱池塘底栖动物种、量特点及其与鱼类捕食和一些生态因子的关系进行了讨论。