2016—2020年全国化工和危险化学品事故分析研究*

为分析“十三五”期间（2016—2020年）我国化工和危险化学品事故发生情况，统计“十三五”期间化工和危险化学品事故数量及死亡人数，从发生月份、发生区域、行业分布等方面分析事故特征，从事故类别、事故环节、关键作业等方面分析事故原因，总结2011—2020年我国化工和危险化学品事故发展趋势，按照全国4大经济区域研究2013—2020年事故特征。结果表明:“十三五”期间我国化工和危险化学品事故数量呈下降趋势，死亡人数出现波动，总体形势较为平稳。2011—2020年化工和危险化学品事故风险向中西部转移趋势明显，东北、西部地区事故死亡率普遍高于东部地区。研究结果可为相关行业从业者及监管部门提供决策参考。     

The effect of protected areas on forest disturbance in the Carpathian Mountains 1985–2010

Protected areas are a cornerstone for forest protection, but they are not always effective during times of socioeconomic and institutional crises. The Carpathian Mountains in Eastern Europe are an ecologically outstanding region, with widespread seminatural and old‐growth forest. Since 1990, Carpathian countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Ukraine) have experienced economic hardship and institutional changes, including the breakdown of socialism, European Union accession, and a rapid expansion of protected areas. The question is how protected‐area effectiveness has varied during these times across the Carpathians given these changes. We analyzed a satellite‐based data set of forest disturbance (i.e., forest loss due to harvesting or natural disturbances) from 1985 to 2010 and used matching statistics and a fixed‐effects estimator to quantify the effect of protection on forest disturbance. Protected areas in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and the Ukraine had significantly less deforestation inside protected areas than outside in some periods; the likelihood of disturbance was reduced by 1–5%. The effectiveness of protection increased over time in these countries, whereas the opposite was true in Romania. Older protected areas were most effective in Romania and Hungary, but newer protected areas were more effective in Czech Republic, and Poland. Strict protection (International Union for Conservation of Nature [IUCN] protection category Ia‐II) was not more effective than landscape‐level protection (IUCN III‐VI). We suggest that the strength of institutions, the differences in forest privatization, forest management, prior distribution of protected areas, and when countries joined the European Union may provide explanations for the strikingly heterogeneous effectiveness patterns among countries. Our results highlight how different the effects of protected areas can be at broad scales, indicating that the effectiveness of protected areas is transitory over time and space and suggesting that generalizations about the effectiveness of protected areas can be misleading.     

Assessment of the clear-sky bias issue using continuous PM10 data from two AERONET sites in Korea

A bias in clear-sky conditions that will be involved in estimating particulate matter(PM)concentration from aerosol optical depth(AOD) was examined using PM_(10) from two Aerosol Robotic Network sites in Korea. The study periods were between 2004 and 2007 at Anmyon and between 2003 and 2011 at Gosan, when both PM_(10) and AOD were available. Mean PM_(10) when AOD was available(PM AOD) was higher than that from all PM_(10)data(PM all) by 5.1 and9.9 μg/m~3 at Anmyon and Gosan, which accounted for 11% and 26% of PM all, respectively.Because of a difference between mean PM_(10) under daytime clear-sky conditions(PM clear)and PM AOD, the variations in ΔPM_(10), the difference of PM all from PM clear rather than from PM AOD, were investigated. Although monthly variations in ΔPM_(10)at the two sites were different, they were positively correlated to those in ΔT, similarly defined as ΔPM_(10)except for temperature, at both sites. ΔPM_(10)at Anmyon decreased to a negative value in January due to an influence of the Siberian continental high-pressure system while ΔPM_(10)at Gosan was high in winter due to an effect of photochemical production at higher temperatures than at Anmyon.     

从经济学角度对比中国与美国的能源消费

分析了中关两国能源消费总量和能源结构的差异,探讨了中关两国能源消费差异的经济学内涵,认为经济指标GDP并不能完全反映人们生活水平的提高,而其带来的环境问题却很可能影响后续的经济发展。因此,在发展经济的同时,应该充分考虑能源需求给环境带来的压力。适当调整能源结构、提高能源效率和发展替代能源是未来能源消费战略的重中之重,也是经济、环境和社会协调发展的重要保障。     

基于可靠性统计分析法的制导弹药储存寿命评估

针对制导弹药价格昂贵而无法采用大规模性能试验和实弹射击方法进行可靠性研究的问题,采用可靠性统计分析法对制导弹药储存寿命进行评估。通过建立制导弹药可靠储存寿命模型,并以制导弹药火工品中的待发程控装置为研究对象,运用Bayes法对试验数据出现的＂倒挂＂现象进行了修正。依据修正后的试验数据进行计算,得到了在一定置信度下待发程控装置的储存寿命。     

环境统计在环境保护中的应用

环境统计是用数字反映并计量人类活动引起的环境变化和环境变化对人类影响的工作。从统计工作实践出发,通过能源环境统计数据、环境质量统计数据和污染源排放统计数据在日常环境管理中的应用实例,总结出环境统计在环境保护中的应用价值,以期引起对环境统计工作的重视。     

排污权交易之排放跟踪数据校核研究

本文以排污权交易的核心业务排放跟踪管理为出发点,选择电厂二氧化硫指标进行排放跟踪数据过程校核体系研究,探索进一步提高排污权交易体系中排放数据准确性的机制。     

2007年5-6月国内环境事件

简要统计了2007年5-6月国内发生的各种环境事件123起,包括沙尘天气10起,污染事件23起,地震15起,山体滑坡和泥石流13起,旱灾5起,以及其他自然灾害57起.对自然灾害进行了讨论.     

空气自动监测网络数据有效性的自动化判别

以山东省空气自动监测网监测数据有效性的自动化判别为例,阐述了自动化判别的主要思路、判别程序和判别规则,探讨了省级或区域级空气自动监测网络的数据自动化判别方法.     

便携β射线法手工监测PM_(2.5)的可行性研究

提出利用自动射线原理结合重量法的简捷便携特点的便携射线仪手工监测PM2.5的思路,平行比对了便携射线法和手工重量法所测60组PM2.5浓度的监测结果,采用线性回归及T检验、F检验等理论分析了两者数据结果间的有效性和可比性。结果表明,便携式射线仪监测结果与重量法监测结果之间有效可比且得到了两者间的线性回归方程;此外进行了20组数据的实样验证,换算值和真值之间相对误差在8%以内,因而确定了便携射线仪手工监测PM2.5的可行性。