东北玉米低温冷害时空分布与多时间尺度变化规律分析

利用东北地区48个农业气象观测站1961-2010年逐日温度资料和近20多年玉米生育期资料,基于热量指数构建生育阶段冷害指数,采用EOF分析、Mann-Kendall法、子波变换等方法系统分析了近50年东北玉米4个生育阶段低温冷害时空分布及周期特征。结果表明:整个生育期全区平均冷害强度呈极显著的减弱趋势,地区间冷害变化趋势呈现差异化特征,冷害强度减弱趋势由西南向东北方向呈阶梯状递增;4个生育阶段冷害指数EOF第一模态均呈冷害空间变化趋势一致的特征;冷害强度呈较明显的减弱趋势,第1到第4生育阶段减弱趋势逐渐增大,突变均发生在1990年代中期;冷害强度具有较强的周期性,出苗—七叶、出苗—抽雄存在明显的23、25年周期,出苗—乳熟、出苗—成熟均具有较明显的3年周期振荡。     

G2京津塘高速公路万辆车流的交通事故灾害与气象综合指数的关系

通过整理G2京津塘高速公路3年(2007年3月至2010年2月)逐日逐时万辆车流的交通事故灾害和交通流量及气象要素资料,并将万辆车流的交通事故灾害(交通事故灾害与交通流量之商)与同步气象综合指数进行日变化相关分析;结果表明:平均万辆车流的交通事故灾害的日变化最高峰出现在05时,年平均高峰值高达2.34起·辆-1·10-4;年度、春季、夏季、秋季和冬季的平均万辆车流的交通事故灾害与同步气象综合指数均呈正抛物线的偏右侧相关,即万辆车流的交通事故灾害随气象综合指数的加大而增多;统计学检验(R＞Rα=0.01和F＞Fa=0.01)效果很好.四个季节的万辆车流的交通事故灾害与气象综合指数相关的系数高达0.7781～0.8537.为了更好地将自动气象监测信息服务于高速公路交通安全,在分析成果的基础上设计出了高速公路万辆车流的交通事故灾害的气象综合指数风险等级指标,以期为高速公路交通安全提供客观的科学依据.     

城市灾害易损性及其评价指标

城市化的加速使城市成为国民经济和社会发展的重要区域,同时灾害给城市发展造成了巨大的损失。通过分析易损性的维度和时空性,并在总结多因子复合函数方法、模糊综合评价方法、数据包络分析方法等易损性研究方法的基础上,结合复杂的城市系统的内部特征,从人口易损性、经济易损性、社会易损性和生态环境易损性4个方面建立适合城市灾害易损性评价的框架;探讨了包括人口迁入率和经济密度等11个城市灾害易损性指标体系。最后指出城市灾害易损性研究对城市可持续发展有重要意义。     

山区沿河公路水毁危险性评价方法的研究

为了预测评价山区沿河公路水毁灾害,通过理论分析和专家系统调查,阐明了沿河公路水毁危险性的含义,确定了其主要危险因子(洪水流量、水位、流速)和次要危险因子(洪水持续时间、河流形态)。运用灰色系统的关联度方法,根据关联序确定了各危险因子的权重;在因子等级划分的基础上,提出了沿河公路水毁危险性指数的计算方法,并在工程中得到了应用。研究成果可供沿河公路水毁易发段危险性点及整个路段的评价参考。     

辽西北地区农业干旱灾害风险评价与风险区划研究

以辽西北29个农业县(市、区)为研究区域,选取辽西北最主要的玉米作物作为研究对象,从造成农业干旱灾害的致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露性、脆弱性和抗旱减灾能力4个方面着手,利用自然灾害风险指数法、加权综合评价法和层次分析法,建立了农业干旱灾害风险指数(ADRI),用以表征农业干旱灾害风险程度;借助GIS技术,绘制辽西北农业干旱灾害风险评价区划图,将风险评价区划图与2006年辽西北受干旱影响粮食减产系数区划图对比,发现两者可以较好的匹配。研究结果可为当地农业干旱灾害预警、保险,以及有关部门的旱灾管理、减灾决策制定提供理论依据和指导。     

调度自动化系统实时信息分层分流构建

火灾作用下混凝土构件的承载能力总体不断下降且具有明显随机性,采用抗火可靠指标可较好地评估构件的火灾安全性。本文针对混凝土轴压柱的高温承载能力极限状态,考虑材料强度变异性导致的柱高温极限承栽力的随机性,以及高温下柱荷栽效应组合的随机性,采用JC法计算给出了ISO834标准升温曲线作用下不同受火时间对应的柱抗火可靠指标,讨论了主要参数对该可靠指标的影响规律;并根据我国现行建筑防火规范,通过分析和参照对比,初步提出了混凝土轴压柱抗火可靠指标的目标建议值。研究认为:(1)截面尺寸越小,柱抗火可靠指标随受火时间增加而下降的速率越快;(2)现行规范给出的截面(200×200)mm、(240×240)mm、(300×300)mm 3种柱在各自耐火极限时刻的抗火可靠指标较为接近,但截面(370×370)mm柱的抗火可靠指标却明显偏低;(3)混凝土轴压柱的目标抗火可靠指标建议取为1.6。     

Factors affecting 210Po and 210Pb activity concentrations in mussels and implications for environmental bio-monitoring programmes

The activity of ²¹⁰Po and ²¹⁰Pb was determined in mussels of the same size (3.5-4.0 cm shell length) sampled monthly over a 17-month period at the Atlantic coast of Portugal. Average radionuclide concentration values in mussels were 759 ± 277 Bq kg⁻¹ for ²¹⁰Po (range 460-1470 Bq kg⁻¹ dry weight), and 45 ± 19 Bq kg⁻¹ for ²¹⁰Pb (range 23-96 Bq kg⁻¹ dry weight). Environmental parameters and mussel biometric parameters were monitored during the same period. Although there was no seasonal variation of radionuclide concentrations in sea water during the study period, the concentration of radionuclide activity in mussels varied seasonally displaying peaks of high concentrations in winter and low concentrations in summer. Analysis of radionuclide data in relation to the physiological Condition Index of mussels revealed that ²¹⁰Po and ²¹⁰Pb activities in the mussel (average activity per individual) remained nearly constant during the investigation period, while mussel body weight fluctuated due to fat storage/expenditure in the soft tissues. Similar variation of radionuclide concentrations was observed in mussels transplanted from the sea coast into the Tejo Estuary. However, under estuarine environmental conditions and with higher food availability throughout the year, transplanted mussel Condition Index was higher than in coastal mussels and average radionuclide concentrations were 210 ± 75 Bq kg⁻¹ (dry weight) for ²¹⁰Po and 10 ± 4 Bq kg⁻¹ (dry weight) for ²¹⁰Pb, therefore lower than in coastal mussels with similar shell length. It is concluded that the apparent seasonal fluctuation and inter-site difference of radionuclide concentrations were mostly caused by mussel body weight fluctuation and not by radionuclide body burden fluctuation. This interpretation can be extended to the apparent seasonal fluctuation in concentrations of lipophilic and lipophobic contaminants in mussels, and provides an explanation for occasional high concentrations of ²¹⁰Po and man-made contaminants measured in mussels far from pollution sources.     

Increased Bioavailability of Mercury in the Lagoons of Lomé, Togo: The Possible Role of Dredging

Surface sediments of the lagoons of Lomé, Togo, were analyzed for mercury, methylmercury, and trace elements. Concentrations were greater than typical for natural lagoon sediments, and with greater variability within the Eastern lagoon compared to the Western one. The Eastern lagoon is larger and has been dredged in the past, while the Western lagoon, which also receives major waste inputs, has not been dredged and shows less tidal flushing. Accordingly, one naturally believes that the Eastern lagoon is cleaner and probably safe to use due to its natural resources, including fishes to eat. Unexpectedly, we describe here that mercury methylation was greater in the Eastern lagoon, indicating increased bioavailability of mercury, as probably facilitated by past dredging that decreased solid-phase retention of inorganic mercury. Urbanization has historically been more developed in the southern part of the lagoons, which is still reflected in contamination levels of sediment despite dredging, probably because sources of contamination are still more important there today. Such urban contamination emphasizes the need to regulate waste discharges and possible airborne contamination in growing cities of developing countries, and implements environmental and public health monitoring, especially in relation to misbelieves systematically associated with the cleansing effect of dredging activity.     

Global Urban Growth and the Geography of Water Availability,Quality, and Delivery

Globally, urban growth will add 1.5 billion people to cities by 2030, making the difficult task of urban water provisions even more challenging. In this article, we develop a conceptual framework of urban water provision as composed of three axes: water availability, water quality, and water delivery. For each axis, we calculate quantitative proxy measures for all cities with more than 50,000 residents, and then briefly discuss the strategies cities are using in response if they are deficient on one of the axes. We show that 523 million people are in cities where water availability may be an issue, 890 million people are in cities where water quality may be an issue, and 1.3 billion people are in cities where water delivery may be an issue. Tapping into groundwater is a widespread response, regardless of the management challenge, with many cities unsustainably using this resource. The strategies used by cities deficient on the water delivery axis are different than for cities deficient on the water quantity or water quality axis, as lack of financial resources pushes cities toward a different and potentially less effective set of strategies.     

基于星座图法的湖北省农业功能分区

农业功能分区是准确把握县域农业功能定位、推动区域农业功能拓展和向现代农业转型的基础工作。旨在探索运用一种新的分类方法即星座图法在农业功能分区中的应用。剖析现代农业的功能定位问题,从农产品供应、就业与社会保障、生态调节和文化传承与休闲4大类综合功能选取30个定量指标和2个定性指标,构建了湖北省农业功能分区指标体系。采用星座图法,根据星座图中各星点的位置,确定各县（市）单项功能的分等类型;并以此为基础结合分区单元的实际地理位置和社会经济及环境现状,作出湖北省农业功能分区方案。分区结果以县级行政区域为分区单元,按照农业功能分区的基本原则,湖北省分4个农业主导功能区,各主导功能区分为3个二级区共12个二级农业功能区