江汉平原建设用地扩张的时空特征与驱动力分析

建设用地的迅速扩张已经成为当前中国土地利用变化的主要特征。以中国科学院土地利用数据库（基于1995、2000和2005TM影像）为基础,利用GIS空间叠加分析和缓冲区分析技术,提取建设用地变化及其空间分布信息,运用建设用地扩张速度和强度指数对江汉平原1995～2005年10 a来建设用地扩张的时空特征进行了研究。在此基础上,结合各县市的社会经济等信息,运用灰色关联分析,对建设用地扩张的驱动力进行探讨。结果显示：总体上江汉平原建设用地扩张速度呈现增大趋势,但各县市之间扩张差异显著;各县市建设用地扩张分布上呈现组团状特点;沿交通线扩张的特征较为突出,尤其是后一阶段增幅高于前一阶段,沿江扩张增幅明显;总人口的增长是江汉平原建设用地扩张最主要的驱动力;交通条件改善、经济发展与区域建设用地扩张也有明显的相关关系     

Modeling vehicle emissions in different types of Chinese cities: importance of vehicle fleet and local features

We propose a method to simulate vehicle emissions in Chinese cities of different sizes and development stages. Twenty two cities are examined in this study. The target year is 2007. Among the cities, the vehicle emission factors were remarkably different (the highest is 50-90% higher than the lowest) owing to their distinct local features and vehicle technology levels, and the major contributors to total vehicle emissions were also different. A substantial increase in vehicle emissions is foreseeable unless stronger measures are implemented because the benefit of current policies can be quickly offset by the vehicle growth. Major efforts should be focused on all cities, especially developing cities where the requirements are lenient. This work aims a better understanding of vehicle emissions in all types of Chinese cities. The proposed method could benefit national emission inventory studies in improving accuracy and help in designing national and local policies for vehicle emission control.     

A theoretical and methodological framework for studying and modelling drivers’ mental representations

This article provides a synthetic overview of the research programme carried out at INRETS-LESCOT over the last 10 years, in view to studying and modelling the mental representations of car drivers. Theoretically, this research is in line with two complementary scientific traditions: Human Information Processing theories on the one hand, and theories of Operative Activity on the other. As discussed in Section 1 of the article, attention is given to the functional representations of drivers, constructed “by” and “for” the action, such as they are implemented in a driving situation, and taking into account both implicit and explicit dimensions. This aim directly impacts on the methodological approach implemented, in so far as it entails defining an “experimental continuum” ranging from naturalistic observations of the driving activity (on the open road), to setting up more controlled experimental protocols in order to permit in-depth, systematic and reproducible scientific investigations of drivers’ cognition. Section 2 of the article presents a synthetic view of these methods, while Section 3 presents several significant results obtained with them. Lastly, the final part of the article focuses on the computational formalism defined at INRETS-LESCOT (i.e. the driving schemas) designed to model driver knowledge and mental representations, and developed in a COgnitive Simulation MOdel of the DRIVEr called COSMODRIVE.     

Does projection into use improve trust and exploration? An example with a cruise control system

We know that the systems which are trusted by the users are more often used, especially in a risky situation where they need to delegate control, but we still ignore largely the factors which improve trust in the systems. Our issue here was to explore whether the way we present the system to the users will have an effect on their confidence in it.In this study, we had nine subjects using for the first time a cruise control system on open road; before, we present the system to them in three different ways: (i) a function-oriented written presentation (G1), (ii) a use-oriented written presentation, “augmented” with difficult situations (G2) and (iii) a use-oriented film presentation (3). They evaluate their trust in the system on scales before the whole experiment, after the presentation and after the real use. At the end, they also have self-confrontation interviews, where they see the video of their driving and describe their activity, strategies and feelings. We then develop quantitative and qualitative analysis of trust, linked with specific situations of action.Our results indicate that the presentation of instructions lowers the evaluation of trust (and of efficiency) that conductors have a priori; they had constructed an a priori representation of a CCS that is rather idealistic, and realised, after reading the instructions, and above all after having watched a film, that its use is not so obvious as they had previously thought There is thenceforth a drop in trust that nevertheless goes up again after use of the system during driving We remark, from qualitative analyses of use experience of the regulator in real driving conditions, that this drop in trust in the system does not inhibit subjects in their use, and in particular, for subjects who have watched a film of projection into use They know more of the functions of the system in driving conditions, they produce less distorted reconstruction of the functioning, and they have a deeper level of understanding of the system.     

Self-assessed driver competence among novice drivers - a comparison of driving test candidate assessments and examiner assessments in a Dutch and Finnish sample

Problem

This study examined novice drivers’ overconfidence by comparing their self-assessed driver competence with the assessments made by driving examiners.

Method

A Finnish (n = 2,739) and a Dutch sample (n = 239) of drivers license candidates assessed their driver competence in six areas and took the driving test.

Result and Discussion

In contrast to previous studies where drivers have assessed their skill in comparison to the average driver, a smaller proportion overestimated and a larger proportion made realistic self-assessments of their driver competence in the present study, where self-assessments were compared with examiner assessments. Between 40% and 50% of the candidates in both samples made realistic assessments and 30% to 40% overestimated their competence. The proportion of overestimation was greater in the Dutch than in the Finnish sample, which might be explained by greater possibilities for practicing self-assessment in the Finnish driver education system. Similar to other self-assessment studies that indicate that incompetence is related to overestimation, a larger proportion of candidates that failed the test overestimated their skill compared to those who passed. In contrast to other studies, males did not overestimate their skills more than females, and younger driver candidates were not more overconfident than older drivers.

Impact on traffic safety

Although a great proportion of the candidates made a realistic assessment of their own driver competence, overestimation is still a problem that needs to be dealt with. To improve the accuracy of novice drivers’ self-assessment, methods for self-assessment training should be developed and implemented in the driver licensing process.     

Health, safety, self-regulation and the older driver: It's not just a matter of age

Problem

The purpose of this research was to examine the impact of age and health on patterns of driving and self-regulation among older adults who still drive.

Method

This analysis presents the results of a nationwide survey of drivers who are 50 + (N = 3,824, 53.11% response rate), focusing on questions about the impact of their self-reported health on attitudes toward and self-regulation of driving.

Results

The data indicate that as age increases, so too does reported self-regulation of driving, increasing sharply among those ages 70 and older. The data also indicate that respondent's reported confidence in driving and their enjoyment of driving decline as they age. Health status bears a significant relationship with all three of these variables, positively related to confidence in driving skills and to enjoyment in driving, but negatively related to self-regulation reports. As self-reported health declines, respondent's report engages in greater voluntary restrictions of their driving.

Discussion

All too often, the driving decision is linked primarily to chronological age. Analysis done here indicates that age alone is not the best indicator of self-regulation and how older adults change their driving behaviors.

Summary

This research presents the results of a nationwide survey of 50+ drivers and their self-reported driving, self-regulation behaviors, and health status. Strong support was found for the argument that chronological age is not an adequate measure of self-regulating behaviors and driver safety among those 50+. In particular, it was found that a person's health status and the interaction between age and health are essential considerations in the decisions around self-regulation and driving. People tend to self-regulate more with age, but the effect becomes much more pronounced as health status declines.

Impact on industry

In the coming years, if older adults can't get to where they want to go and continue to be viable consumers in our national fabric, all industries will eventually suffer. Transportation is a key component to the nation's social contract with older individuals and their families.     

论我国典型公共场所突发事件现场应急处置中消防部队的主导作用

消防部队作为应对典型公共场所突发事件的主导救援力量具有独特的优势,并从法律优势、体制优势、装备优势、经验优势、信息化建设优势、地域分布优势和群众信任优势等7个方面获得充分论证。从政府加强法制建设,扩充现有消防人员的编制,进一步加大消防经费投入、加强消防基础设施和装备建设以及加强技术培训、提升消防部队整体实战能力等4个方面提出了保障消防部队主导地位的措施。笔者认为:只要保障有力,在我国典型公共场所突发事件现场应急处置的过程中,组建一支以消防部队为主导的能够承担多种灾害紧急救援任务的专业化综合救援队伍是可行的,消防部队作为主导救援力量具有其他任何应急救援组织无可比拟的基础和条件。     

山东省耕地资源态势分析及可持续利用研究

利用山东省建国以来的耕地序列数据以及近10多年来的相关社会经济资料，宏观分析了山东省耕地资源的时空动态变化规律。用相关分析和主成分分析相结合，定量地研究耕地变化的驱动因子，揭示耕地变化的驱动机制；研究表明，社会经济发展、农业科技进步和人口压力是造成山东省耕地资源持续藏少的三类主要动因。在此基础上，运用多元线性回归分析构建耕地变化回归模型，同时通过人均粮食需求量预测法，分别预测出2020年的山东省的耕地数量和耕地最低需求量．结果表明山东省未来的耕地资源态势不容乐观，人地矛盾十分尖锐。最后提出了实现耕地资源可持续利用的几点建议。     

泰安市耕地资源动态变化特征及驱动力研究

研究耕地资源动态变化特征及其原因。对合理利用耕地资源、控制耕地资源的快速减少有重要的意义。本文根据泰安市1997—2004年土地利用变更调查数据。对该区域耕地资源的动态变化进行了时间上和空间上的分析。利用主成分分析法．得出泰安市耕地减少的四大驱动因子：农民人均住房面积、第一产业GDP、非农业人口和公路里程。并针对不同驱动力提出了相应的对策措施。