An assessment methodology for successional systems. I. Null models and the regulatory framework

Standard procedures for evaluating environmental impact involve comparison between before and after conditions or scenarios or between treatment and control site pairs. In many cases, however, endogenous directional change (natural succession) is expected to occur at a significant rate over the period of concern, particularly for manmade systems such as impoundments. Static evaluations do not provide an adequate approach to such problems. A new evaluation frame is proposed. Nominal system behavior over time is characterized by a stochastic envelope around a nominal trajectory. We show that both the state variance and the sampling variance can change over time. In this context, environmental regulations can be framed as constraints, targets, or conformance to ideal trajectories. Statistical tests for determining noncompliance are explored relative to process variance, sample error, and sample size. Criteria are elucidated for choosing properties to monitor, sample size, and sampling interval.     

Integration of long-term fish kill data with ambient water quality monitoring data and application to water quality management

Almost half (354) of all fish kills (805) in South Carolina, USA, between 1978 and 1988 occurred in the coastal zone. These kills were analyzed for causative, spatial, and temporal associations as a distinct data set and as one integrated with ambient water quality monitoring data. Estuarine kills as a result of natural causes accounted for 42.8% followed by man-induced (35.1%) and undetermined causes (22.1%). Although general pesticide usage was responsible for 53.9% of man-induced kills, weed control activities around resorts and municipal areas accounted for slightly more kills (20.9%) than did agricultural (19.8%) or vector control (13.2%) uses. A dramatic decline in agricultural-related kills has been observed since 1986 as the integrated pest management approach was adopted by many farmers. When taken with the few kills (12.0%) resulting from wastewaters, this suggests that these two land-use activities have been successfully managed via existing programs (IPM and NPDES, respectively) to minimize their contributions to estuarine fish kills. Ambient trend monitoring data demonstrated no coastal-wide dispersion of pesticide pollution. These data confirmed the nature of fish kills to be site-specific, near-field events most closely associated with the contiguous land-use practices and intensities. Typically, fish kill data are considered as event-specific data limited to the bounds of that event only. Our analysis has shown, however, that a long-term data set, when integrated with ambient water quality data, can assist in regulatory and resource management decisions for both short- and long-term planning and protection applications.     

密闭爆炸容器实验研究及数值模拟

实验研究了三种结构的爆炸容器在爆炸载荷下的响应情况；并通过二维多流体欧拉程序对二维爆炸场进行了数值模拟．在这个基础上用ＮＩＫＥ－２Ｄ对壳体的动态响应进行数值模拟。     

The use of Landsat multispectral scanner data for the analysis and management of flooding on the river Severn,England

Remote sensing has emerged as one of the major techniques for the analysis and delineation of large floods. This analysis can provide data invaluable for the hydrological management of large river systems. A need for information on the extent of floodplain inundation for the lower reaches of the largest river in the UK was met by a search through Landsat images of floods and the analysis of the best example recorded. Automated classification of the Landsat imagery of this flood on the river Severn in 1977 was used to provide estimates of the extent and spatial distribution of inundation. Flood images were generated using the Plessey IDP 3000 image processor, and the maps derived accorded well with aerial photography and qualitative flood information. Three distinct floodplain environments were delineated and flood images produced by different spectral bands compared. Specific questions prompted by flood hazard management and concerning the processes and extent of flooding were answered by the Landsat data analysis. Management of the flood risk of large rivers is expensive and remote sensing data is a relatively cheap and effective way of monitoring control works and providing data for the prediction of the effects of future hydrological works. Remote sensing is a practical way in which spatial information concerning the behavior of large dynamic systems can be obtained both quickly and relatively cheaply.     

大空间火灾烟气流动的动态显示研究

讨论了火灾烟气流动过程的计算机动态模拟方法。利用Ｄｅｌｐｈｉ可视化编程工具,建立了一个融区域模拟计算和计算机动态显示于一体的火灾发展的模拟软件,并以中国科技大学的大空间建筑火灾实验厅为对象,对典型火灾羽流及烟气层的发展过程进行了动态显示。     

Monitoring Forest Carbon Sequestration with Remote Sensing and Carbon Cycle Modeling

Sources and sinks of carbon associated with forests depend strongly on the management regime and spatial patterns in potential productivity. Satellite remote sensing can provide spatially explicit information on land cover, stand-age class, and harvesting. Carbon-cycle process models coupled to regional climate databases can provide information on potential rates of production and related rates of decomposition. The integration of remote sensing and modeling thus produces spatially explicit information on carbon storage and flux. This integrated approach was employed to compare carbon flux for the period 1992–1997 over two 165-km² areas in western Oregon. The Coast Range study area was predominately private land managed for timber production, whereas the West Cascades study area was predominantly public land that was less productive but experienced little harvesting in the 1990s. In the Coast Range area, 17% of the land base was harvested between 1991 and 2000. Much of the area was in relatively young, productive-age classes that simulations indicate are a carbon sink. Mean annual harvest removals from the Coast Range were greater than mean annual net ecosystem production. On the West Cascades study area, a relatively small proportion (< 1%) of the land was harvested and the area as a whole was accumulating carbon. The spatially and temporally explicit nature of this approach permits identification of mechanisms underlying land base carbon flux. Published online     

Evaluation of leachate composition by multivariate data analysis (MVDA)

Landfills generate emissions in the form of gas and leachate. The emissions are often measured within monitoring programmes. It is likely that the requirements of such monitoring programmes can be extended in the future, particularly in light of the increased interest in specific organic substances. Multivariate data analyses (MVDA) have been used to evaluate the possibility of predicting the content of specific organic substances from more common analyses. The results indicate that this is possible for a specific leachate. MVDA can also be used to reduce the number of analyses performed within existing monitoring programmes while retaining information about all the variables formerly included in the programmes.     

Geographic Analysis of Forest Health Indicators Using Spatial Scan Statistics

Geographically explicit analysis tools are needed to assess forest health indicators that are measured over large regions. Spatial scan statistics can be used to detect spatial or spatiotemporal clusters of forests representing hotspots of extreme indicator values. This paper demonstrates the approach through analyses of forest fragmentation indicators in the southeastern United States and insect and pathogen indicators in the Pacific Northwest United States. The scan statistic detected four spatial clusters of fragmented forest including a hotspot in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain region. Three recurring clusters of insect and pathogen occurrence were found in the Pacific Northwest. Spatial scan statistics are a powerful new tool that can be used to identify potential forest health problems.     

Detecting Changes in Natural Resources Using Land Condition Trend Analysis Data

The Land Condition Trend Analysis (LCTA) program is the US Army's standard for land inventory and monitoring, employing standardized methods of natural resources data collection, analyses, and reporting designed to meet multiple goals and objectives. Critical to using LCTA data in natural resources management decisions is the ability of the LCTA protocols to detect changes in natural resources. To quantify the ability of LCTA protocols to detect resource changes, power analysis techniques were used to estimate minimum detectable effect sizes (MDES) for selected primary and secondary management variables for three Army installations. MDES for a subset of primary variables were estimated using data from 27 installation LCTA programs. MDES for primary and secondary variables varied widely. However, LCTA programs implemented at larger installations with lower sampling intensities detected changes in installation resources as well as programs implemented at smaller more intensively sampled installations. As a national monitoring program that is implemented at individual installations, LCTA protocols provide relatively consistent monitoring data to detect changes in resources despite diverse resource characteristics and implementation constraints.     

The Information Cycle as a Framework for Defining Information Goals for Water-Quality Monitoring

/ The necessity to tailor information becomes increasingly urgent as the information revolution continues to generate ever-increasing flows of data and so-called information. From European experiences, a new approach for monitoring system design is suggested in this paper. In this approach, careful and detailed specification of information needs is a major contributing factor to the effectiveness of information products. To develop better specifications for information products, the process of collecting and transforming data into useful information requires careful thought and guidance. A dialogue between information users on one hand and information producers on the other is essential. This dialogue can be based on the information cycle, describing the continuous process from specifying information needs for water management and a strategy to collect information through data collection and data analysis up to utilization of information by water management. By following the respective steps in the information cycle, the process of information gathering can be completed. The cyclic character provides a quantitative means of connecting monitoring system design and operations with the information expectations and/or products required by management.