Groundwater depletion in India: Social losses from costly well deepening

We develop a dynamic groundwater model that incorporates both groundwater pumping and investment in deeper wells and apply the model to the arid, alluvial aquifer region of Northern India that is experiencing rapid depletion. We compute the potential benefits of regulating groundwater use by comparing the net benefits of groundwater under optimal management to the net benefits under a common pool regime with two different cost structures: one with flat electricity tariffs, which are widespread in India, and a second with full marginal cost electricity pricing. Using numerical simulation, we find that the opportunity to invest in deeper wells significantly exacerbates the common pool problem and suggests the potential for large benefits (66% of common pool benefits) from optimally managing groundwater use or new drilling. Flat tariffs exacerbate the problem, but large gains (almost 23%) remain even if farms are charged the full marginal cost of electricity.     

Development of combined coagulation-hydrolysis acidification-dynamic membrane bioreactor system for treatment of oilfield polymer-flooding wastewater

• We created a combined system for treating oilfield polymer-flooding wastewater. • The system was composed of coagulation, hydrolysis acidification and DMBR. • Coagulant integrated with demulsifier dominated the removal of crude oil. • The DMBR proceed efficiently without serious membrane fouling. A combined system composed of coagulation, hydrolysis acidification and dynamic membrane bioreactor (DMBR) was developed for treating the wastewater produced from polymer flooding. Performance and mechanism of the combined system as well as its respective units were also evaluated. The combined system has shown high-capacity to remove all contaminants in the influent. In this work, the coagulant, polyacrylamide-dimethyldiallyammonium chloride-butylacrylate terpolymer (P(DMDAAC-AM-BA)), integrated with demulsifier (SD-46) could remove 91.8% of crude oil and 70.8% of COD. Hydrolysis acidification unit improved the biodegradability of the influent and the experimental results showed that the highest acidification efficiency in hydrolysis acidification reactor was 20.36% under hydraulic retention time of 7 h. The DMBR proceeded efficiently without serious blockage process of membrane fouling, and the concentration of ammonia nitrogen (NH₃-N), oil, chemical oxygen demand and biological oxygen demand in effluent were determined to be 3.4±2.1, 0.3±0.6, 89.7±21.3 and 13±4.7 mg/L.     

Coalition formation in fisheries with potential regime shift

A system can undergo rapid regime shift in which the growth of natural resources suddenly and permanently declines. We examine how the threat of such a shift alters the strategic management of a common pool renewable resource. We consider exogenous and endogenous threats and examine their effects on both incentives to join a coalition and harvest decisions. We find that an exogenous threat of reduced resource growth may cause the coalition to grow in size, and, perhaps of most interest, we identify conditions under which members of the stable coalition reduce harvest while non-members increase harvest in response to the threat. In contrast, an exogenous threat of total stock collapse may destabilize coalitions, resulting in higher harvest from former members, but reduced harvest by non-members. When the threat of either type of shift is endogenous, the threat of regime shift can induce stable coalitions with more than two members. In particular, we identify cases in which the first best (full cooperation) is sustained as an equilibrium outcome. Finally, we find that the relation between the magnitude of the shift and the size of stable coalitions may be negative.     

Dynamic approach to risk management: Application to the Hoeganaes metal dust accidents

Several major accidents caused by metal dusts were recorded in the past few years. For instance, in 2011, three accidents caused by iron dust killed five workers at the Hoeganaes Corp. facility in Gallatin, Tennessee (USA). In order to prevent such accidents, a dynamic approach to risk management was defined in this study. The method is able to take into account new risk notions and early warnings and to systematically update the related risk. It may be applied not only in the design phase of a system, but also throughout the system lifetime as a support to a more precise and robust decision making process. The synergy of two specific techniques for hazard identification and risk assessment was obtained: the Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) and the Dynamic Risk Assessment (DRA) methods. To demonstrate its effectiveness, this approach was applied to the analysis of Gallatin metal dust accidents. The application allowed collecting a number of risk notions related to the plant, equipment and materials used. The analysis of risk notions by means of this dynamic approach could have led to enhanced hazard identification and dynamic real-time risk assessment. However, the approach described is effective only if associated to a proper safety culture, in order to produce an appropriate and robust decision making response to emerging risk issues.     

室内多因素条件下香烟颗粒粒谱动态分布特征

烟颗粒粒径分布和浓度变化是探测香烟阴燃火灾初期的重要参数,研究香烟阴燃过程烟颗粒粒谱分布对火灾探测具有指导意义。实验通过在室内有风条件下展开,研究风速、位置、时间、烟源等因素对烟颗粒的粒径分布和形成规律的影响。结果表明:1随着时间的推移,GMD(Geometric Mean Diameter,几何平均直径)变大,烟颗粒数量浓度增加,但粒谱分布逐渐趋于稳定。2风速对颗粒粒谱形成的影响较为复杂,随着风速的增加,气流扰动加剧,烟颗粒浓度增加,GMD有减小的变化趋势。3在不同的位置,有风条件下烟颗粒随着气流迁移,最终在壁面处进行积累,离烟源越远位置,沿着风速方向浓度和GMD均变大。4烟颗粒的初始浓度也影响烟颗粒粒谱分布和运动特征,烟源数量越多,初始浓度越大,形成的烟颗粒浓度和GMD越大。     

A density projection approach for non-trivial information dynamics: Adaptive management of stochastic natural resources

We demonstrate a density projection approximation method for solving resource management problems with imperfect state information. The method expands the set of partially-observed Markov decision process (POMDP) problems that can be solved with standard dynamic programming tools by addressing dimensionality problems in the decision maker's belief state. Density projection is suitable for uncertainty over both physical states (e.g. resource stock) and process structure (e.g. biophysical parameters). We apply the method to an adaptive management problem under structural uncertainty in which a fishery manager's harvest policy affects both the stock of fish and the belief state about the process governing reproduction. We solve for the optimal endogenous learning policy—the active adaptive management approach—and compare it to passive learning and non-learning strategies. We demonstrate how learning improves efficiency but typically follows a period of costly short-run investment.     

烟气排放连续监测系统存在问题及建议

介绍了烟气排放连续监测系统（CEMS）中气态污染物监测子系统、烟尘监测子系统、烟气排放参数监测子系统的配置现状。针对现场CEMS的安装、运营、环保检查、质控比对监测中常见的问题,进行了研究与分析,对分析、校准、测量等关键单元进行了优化,提出了合理改进建议和对策。     

Modelling trade-offs between livestock grazing and wader conservation in a grassland agroecosystem

The objective of this study was to model the trade-offs between ecological and productive performance of a grassland agroecosystem. We developed a dynamic model linking grass dynamics controlled by livestock grazing to stochastic population dynamics of two wader bird species with high conservation value. Bird dynamics were driven by both direct and indirect effects of grazing. Viable control framework was used to predict grazing strategies ensuring production and conservation and to generate the whole trade-off curve between ecological and productive performance. Bird population size was used as an indicator of ecological performance and the total number of grazing days defined productive performance. Model results show that conciliating ecological and productive performance implies a temporal shift in grazing sequences. The best ecological performance was obtained at intermediate levels of productive performance. Without grazing or with too low a grazing intensity, it was not possible to maintain any of the bird populations due to the indirect effects of grazing on habitat quality. However, too high a level of grazing implied fast population decline for both populations due to direct negative effects of grazing on nest survival. Field data on current grazing regimes and grass height showed a low proportion of suitable fields in our case study area. This result indicates an antagonism between direct and indirect effects of grazing on wader birds, implying the need of very specific management of grassland. Our results illustrate the fact that European grasslands are anthropic habitats which are highly dependent on human activity. In such habitats, trade-off curves are not expected to be strictly decreasing or increasing.     

A dynamic programming implemented resource competition game theoretic model

Resource competition is commonly occurred in animal populations and studied intensively by researchers. Previous studies have applied game theoretic model by finding Nash equilibrium to investigate this phenomenon. However computation of the Nash equilibrium requires an understanding of the payoff matrix that allocates the rewards received by players when they adopt each of the strategies in the game. In our study we present a dynamic programming implemented framework to compute 2 × 2 intraspecific finite resource allocation game's payoff matrix explicitly. We assume that two distinct types of individuals, aggressive and non-aggressive, are in the population. Then we divide the entire animal development period into three different stages: initialization, quasilinear growth and termination. Each stage for each type of players is specified with their own development coefficient, which determines how resource consumption could convert into strength as reward. Each player has equal and finite resource at the beginning of their development and fights against other players in the population to maximize its own potential reward. Based on these assumptions it is reasonable to use backward induction dynamic programming to compute payoff matrix. We present numerical examples for three different types of aggressive individuals and compute the payoff matrices correspondingly. Then we use the derived payoff matrices to determine the Nash equilibrium and Evolutionary Stable Strategy. Our research provide a framework for future quantitative studies on animal resource competition problems and could be expanded to n-players interspecific stochastic asymmetric resource allocation problem by changing some settings of dynamic programming formulation.