Dynamic floodplain vegetation model development for the Kootenai River, USA

The Kootenai River floodplain in Idaho, USA, is nearly disconnected from its main channel due to levee construction and the operation of Libby Dam since 1972. The decreases in flood frequency and magnitude combined with the river modification have changed the physical processes and the dynamics of floodplain vegetation. This research describes the concept, methodologies and simulated results of the rule-based dynamic floodplain vegetation model "CASiMiR-vegetation" that is used to simulate the effect of hydrological alteration on vegetation dynamics. The vegetation dynamics are simulated based on existing theory but adapted to observed field data on the Kootenai River. The model simulates the changing vegetation patterns on an annual basis from an initial condition based on spatially distributed physical parameters such as shear stress, flood duration and height-over-base flow level. The model was calibrated and the robustness of the model was analyzed. The hydrodynamic (HD) models were used to simulate relevant physical processes representing historic, pre-dam, and post-dam conditions from different representative hydrographs. The general concept of the vegetation model is that a vegetation community will be recycled if the magnitude of a relevant physical parameter is greater than the threshold value for specific vegetation; otherwise, succession will take place toward maturation stage. The overall accuracy and agreement Kappa between simulated and field observed maps were low considering individual vegetation types in both calibration and validation areas. Overall accuracy (42% and 58%) and agreement between maps (0.18 and 0.27) increased notably when individual vegetation types were merged into vegetation phases in both calibration and validation areas, respectively. The area balance approach was used to analyze the proportion of area occupied by different vegetation phases in the simulated and observed map. The result showed the impact of the river modification and hydrological alteration on the floodplain vegetation. The spatially distributed vegetation model developed in this study is a step forward in modeling riparian vegetation succession and can be used for operational loss assessment, and river and floodplain restoration projects.     

Are two resources really better than one? Some unexpected results of the availability of substitutes

The possibility of exploiting multiple resources is usually regarded as positive from both the economic and the environmental point of view. However, resource switching may also lead to unsustainable growth and, ultimately, to an equilibrium condition which is worse than the one that could have been achieved with a single resource. We developed a dynamic model where users exploit multiple resources and have different levels of preference among them. In this setting, exploiting multiple resources leads to worse outcomes in both economic and ecological terms than the single resource case under a wide range of parameter configurations. Our arguments are illustrated using two empirical situations, namely oil drilling in the North Sea and whale hunting in the Antarctic.     

Dynamic model of Lake Chozas (León, NW Spain)—Decrease in eco-exergy from clear to turbid phase due to introduction of exotic crayfish

We developed a dynamic model of the phosphorus cycle in Lake Chozas, a small shallow water body in León (NW Spain). The calibrated model simulated seasonal dynamics of phosphorus concentrations in major components of the lake's ecological network before and after 1997, the year when an invasive allochthonous crustacean, the Louisiana red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), was introduced into the lake. The shift from clean to turbid phase, due to grazing by crayfish on submerged vegetation, caused a gradual decrease in eco-exergy, reflecting an increase in entropy, related to breakdown of ecosystem internal equilibria. This case study verifies the hypothesis of Marchi et al. (2010) that, after an initial relatively stable state, the allochthonous species may cause an increase in entropy indicating perturbation of the ecosystem.     

Interactions between cod, herring and sprat in the changing environment of the Baltic Sea: A dynamic model analysis

The interactions between cod (Gadus morhua), herring (Clupea harengus) and sprat (Sprattus sprattus) in the Central Baltic Sea were examined with a simple dynamic model, an alternative to more complicated and data-demanding multispecies and ecosystem models. The main aims of the study were to compare the effect of alternative structures on the model output and examine the control relationships in the fish assemblage under different environmental conditions. The effect of environmental conditions was modelled using a stock-recruitment equation for cod incorporating an environmental index. The model output was especially sensitive to the functional response in predation by cod on herring and sprat. The type II functional response led to a collapse of the clupeid stocks when cod was abundant, while the type III response produced more realistic stock dynamics. According to the simulations, an abundant cod stock was able to keep the sprat stock at a low level, while the herring stock was less affected and benefited from the decreased density of sprat. Simulation of different fishing scenarios indicated that reducing fishing mortality to the level currently advised by ICES would allow the recovery of the cod stock even in unfavourable environmental conditions.     

固定污染源可凝结颗粒物测量方法

随着燃煤电厂以及钢铁等非电行业超低排放改造的进行,固定污染源可过滤颗粒物(FPM)排放浓度逐渐降低,可凝结颗粒物(CPM)的排放逐步引起关注.然而目前对CPM的认识不足,尚没有国际统一的标准测量方法.本研究分析了可用于固定源CPM测量的3种方法,包括冷凝法、稀释间接法和稀释直接法,并在燃煤电厂、钢铁焦化厂和钢铁烧结厂等固定源进行了CPM现场测量.结果表明,8个电厂和钢铁厂冷凝法测得的CPM质量浓度均显著高于稀释间接法和稀释直接法测量结果.冷凝法测得的CPM中含有大量的SO_24-、Cl-等水溶性离子,其浓度显著高于稀释间接法和稀释直接法测量结果.稀释直接法测量的CPM浓度相对较低.冷凝法测量过程中由于水蒸气过饱和冷凝成水吸收SO_2和HCl等易溶于水的气体,进而显著高估了CPM实际排放浓度.稀释间接法能模拟实际大气环境中CPM的形成过程,且不存在冷凝水吸收等问题.     

不同地震荷载对黄土动模量和阻尼比的影响

不同地震荷载对黄土的动力特性有着重要影响。本文利用微机与我们组装的DSD160型电磁式振动三轴仪组成的一个可对试样施加任意波轴向荷载的动三轴试验系统，对黄土在不同地震荷载下的动模量和阻尼比进行了对比试验研究，初步得到了不同地震荷载对一组黄土的动模量及阻尼比影响的一些结果。     

Time-series analysis of global zinc demand associated with steel

This study aimed to analyze the global-scale substance flow of zinc associated with steel in order to discuss the sustainable use of zinc resources in the future. The relationship between the demand for steel and zinc was characterized in terms of zinc intensity for galvanized steel and the percentage of galvanized steel that accounts for the total steel demand. Zinc consumption for steel was divided into end uses according to the statistics on steel. Zinc demand in the future was forecasted with three scenarios for zinc intensity. Future steel demand was estimated using the stocks-drive-flows model, in which the demand is determined by the change in stock. The growth of in-use stock of galvanized steel in the future was estimated by considering economic growth on the basis of the transition of in-use stock of galvanized steel in the past. The cumulative zinc demand for galvanized steel up to the year 2050 was compared with the zinc reserves. It was found that the global average recovery rate of zinc was estimated at approximately 20% by the dynamic substance flow analysis for zinc. It is hoped that the recovery rate will increase. Even if zinc intensity is continuously reduced according to an experience curve based on technological development, a large portion of the current reserves will be consumed for galvanized steel. It was concluded that technological development in reducing zinc intensity will play a significant role in zinc resource conservation.     

Influence of host migration between woodland and pasture on the population dynamics of the tick Ixodes ricinus: A modelling approach

Ticks act as vectors of pathogens that can be harmful to animals and/or humans. Epidemiological models can be useful tools to investigate the potential effects of control strategies on diseases such as tick-borne diseases. The modelling of tick population dynamics is a prerequisite to simulating tick-borne diseases and the corresponding spread of the pathogen. We have developed a dynamic model to simulate changes in tick density at different stages (egg, larva, nymph and adult) under the influence of temperature. We have focused on the tick Ixodes ricinus, which is widespread in Europe. The main processes governing the biological cycles of ticks were taken into account: egg laying, hatching, development, host (small, mainly rodents, or large, like deer and cattle, mammals) questing, feeding and mortality. This model was first applied to a homogeneous habitat, where simulations showed the ability of the model to reproduce the general patterns of tick population dynamics. We considered thereafter a multi-habitat model, where three different habitats (woodland, ecotone and meadow) were connected through host migration. Based on this second application, it appears that migration from woodland, via the ecotone, is necessary to sustain the presence of ticks in the meadow. Woodland can therefore be considered as a source of ticks for the meadow, which in turn can be regarded as a sink. The influence of woodland on surrounding tick densities increases in line with the area of this habitat before reaching a plateau. A sensitivity analysis to parameter values was carried out and demonstrated that demographic parameters (sex ratio, development, mortality during feeding and questing, host finding) played a crucial role in the determination of questing nymph densities. This type of modelling approach provides insight into the influence of spatial heterogeneity on tick population dynamics.     

Combining heat-transfer and energy budget models to predict thermal stress in Mediterranean intertidal mussels

Recent studies have emphasised that organisms can experience physiological stress well within their geographic range limits. Developing methods for mechanistically predicting the presence, absence and physiological performance of organisms is therefore important because of the ongoing effects of climate change. In this study, we merged a biophysical–ecological (BE) model that estimates the aquatic (high tide) and aerial (low tide) body temperatures of Mytilus galloprovincialis with a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model to predict growth, reproduction and mortality of this Mediterranean mussel in both intertidal and subtidal environments. Using weather and chlorophyll-a data from three Mediterranean sites along the Italian coasts, we show that predictions of sublethal and lethal (acute) stress can potentially explain the observed distribution (both presence and absence) of mussels in the intertidal and subtidal zones, and the maximum size of animals in the subtidal zones. Importantly, our results suggest that different mechanisms limit the intertidal distribution of mussels, and that these mechanisms do not follow a simple latitudinal gradient. At the northernmost site (Palermo), M. galloprovincialis appears to be excluded from the intertidal zone due to persistent exposure to lethal aerial temperatures, whereas at the southernmost sites (Porto Empedocle and Lampedusa) sublethal stress is the most important driver of mussel intertidal distribution. Our predictions provide a set of hypotheses for future work on the role of climate change in limiting intertidal distribution of mussels in the Mediterranean.     

Study on static and dynamic strength characteristics of tailings silty sand and its engineering application

Through high pressure oedometer-undrained triaxial tests and dynamic triaxial tests, researches were conducted on the static and dynamic strength characteristics of the tailings silty sand of No. 4 tailings reservoir in De-xing copper mine. The Mohr-stress circles of the tailings silty sand under all the testing confining pressure show that the single line failure envelope cannot represent the strength characteristics absolutely, the double line failure envelope can express the strength properties when confining pressures are less than 1400 kPa, and the parabolic failure envelope can reflect the strength characteristics well under all the testing confining pressures. The grading curve of the tailings silty sand indicates that the grain composition is relatively homogeneous. Thus, the tailings silty sand is susceptible to liquefy under the dynamic loading. Dynamic triaxial tests of the tailings silty sand show that the tailings silty sand in deep areas has more liquefaction resistance strengths than in shallow. The possible explanation is that the structure of the deep tailings silty sand is more stable than the shallow one. The tests also reveal that the liquefaction resistance increases with the dry density when it is in the range of 1.51-1.61. The results can be used to guide the construction and ensure the safety of No. 4 tailings dam or other high tailings dams.