Consequence risk analysis using operating procedure event trees and dynamic simulation

Faults due to human errors cost the petrochemical industry billions of dollars every year and can have adverse environmental consequences. Unquantified human error probabilities exist during process state transitions performed each day by process operators using standard operating procedures. Managing the risks associated with operating procedures is an essential part of managing the overall safety risk. Additional operator training and safety education cannot eliminate all such faults due to human errors; therefore, we propose an operating procedure event tree (OPET) like analysis with branches and events specifically designed to perform risk analysis on operating procedures. The OPET method adapts event trees to analyze the risk due to human error while performing operating procedures. We consider human error scenarios during the procedure and determine the likely consequences by applying dynamic simulation. The modified event tree provides an estimate of the error frequencies.Operating procedure steps were developed, and potential operator faults were determined for two typical equipment switching procedures found in chemical plant operations. Then, dynamic simulation using Aspen HYSYS software was applied to determine the overpressure related consequences of each fault. Finally, the error frequencies resulting from those scenarios were analyzed using operating procedure event trees. We found that a typical ethylene plant gas header would overpressure with 0.6% frequency per manual dryer switch. Since dryer switches occur from every few days up to once per shift, these results suggest that dryer switching should be automated to ensure safe and environmentally friendly operation. Process dryer switching performed manually by operators opening and closing gate valves can be automated with control valves and a distributed control system. A sample distillation column was found to overpressure with 0.85% frequency per manual reflux pump switch.     

Experimental research of the dynamic behavior of the natural gas suspension pipeline aerial crossing during pigging process

Suspension pipeline aerial crossings (SPAC) are mainly used to carry pipeline segments over large obstacles that are not suitable for trenchless technologies. It may suffer great vibrations and displacements during the pigging process due to the dynamic pigging loads and insufficient constraints from cables. Based on similarity criteria, an experimental scale model based on the Nujiang natural gas SPAC was designed and established. The vibration and displacement of the scale model were measured under different pigging velocities and liquid deposit volumes. The experimental results reveal that the natural gas SPAC vibrates during the pigging process, but the displacement versus time forms a U curve instead of a sinusoidal like curve. The extremum of the displacement is positively related to the pigging velocity and liquid deposit volume. In particular, the extremum increases by 0.37% with a 1% increase in the pigging velocity, while the displacement increases by 0.62% with a 1% increase in the liquid deposit volume. Under certain pigging conditions, or with damaged constraint components, the displacement extremum could be unacceptable. A low pigging velocity and a short time interval between two pigging operations are suggested to guarantee the safety of the natural gas SPACs. Besides, based on the experimental data, an empirical formula is developed to obtain the SPAC displacement-time curve with consideration of the span length, the pipeline diameter, the pigging velocity, the length and holdup of the liquid column. This formula can help to determine a suspicious displacement overrun, and to develop a data basis for choosing a safe pigging scheme of SPACs. This research provides insightful information to understand the mechanism of the SPAC's dynamic response as well as a practical tool to calculate the SPAC's displacement during the pigging process.     

Reliability evaluation of fire alarm systems using dynamic Bayesian networks and fuzzy fault tree analysis

In almost all industries, fire alarm systems play a vital role in the reducing the risks associated with fires and damages. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate their reliability and performance in emergency situations. The present study aimed to use fault tree analysis (FTA) to determine the root causes involved in the failure of fire alarm systems, to use Fuzzy set theory and expert elicitation to determine relative probabilities, and finally, to evaluate the reliability of a fire alarm system using dynamic Bayesian networks (BNs) during a thirty-six months period. A total of 29 basic events were detected from the FT. The reliability of the fire alarm system was estimated at 0.954 according to the FT and 0.957 according to conventional BNs. The reliability of the fire alarm system after 36 months was estimated at 0.375 according to dynamic BNs. All the events involved in the failure of fire alarm systems were drawn in the fault tree diagram. The results indicate that remodeling of these systems and simultaneous construction activities are the most important factors in the failure of the fire alarm system. System reliability can also be increased to 0.965 by providing preventive and control measures to reduce the probability of critical events.     

Mutual effects between dynamic leakage behavior and the pressure/temperature in a LNG tank with external heat fluxes

The objective of this work is to investigate and model the mutual effects between the dynamic pressure/temperature in the LNG tank and the leakage behavior with external heat fluxes. The results suggest that the pressure and temperature in tank during leakage change with the comparison results between the heat flux consumed in liquid boil-off and the external heat flux supplied. At the liquid leakage stage, when the external heat flux is not very high, the pressure in tank tends to increase significantly, even results in tank explosion. It increases more and more heavily with higher and higher external heat fluxes. At the vapor leakage stage, large amount of vapor spray out, which results in a high generation rate of vapor by the liquid boil-off. The pressure in tank normally decreases to be low, which is unfavorable for the LNG tank explosion. Therefore, at this vapor leakage stage, blocking the leakage hole as soon as possible is not always a right choice for fire fighters. Finally, it is suggested that reducing the heat flux into the tank, either at the liquid leakage stage or in vapor one, is key to the tank safety.     

Optimal feed profile for a second order reaction in a semi-batch reactor under safety constraints: Experimental study

Maximising the yield of the second order reaction (2-butanol+propionic anhydride) by manipulating the inlet flow rate is considered for an isothermal semi-batch process. First a procedure for the determination of the kinetic parameters using coupled spectroscopic and calorimetric methods is presented. Then an optimisation of the reaction system is performed numerically and verified experimentally. Constraints on the amount of heat produced and on the temperature attainable in the case of cooling failure are imposed for safety consideration.     

Dynamic risk analysis of offloading process in floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) platform using Bayesian Network

The growing demand for natural gas has pushed oil and gas exploration to more isolated and previously untapped regions around the world where construction of LNG processing plants is not always a viable option. The development of FLNG will allow floating plants to be positioned in remote offshore areas and subsequently produce, liquefy, store and offload LNG in the one position. The offloading process from an FLNG platform to a gas tanker can be a high risk operation. It consists of LNG being transferred, in hostile environments, through loading arms or flexible cryogenic hoses into a carrier which then transports the LNG to onshore facilities. During the carrier's offloading process at onshore terminals, it again involves risk that may result in an accident such as collision, leakage and/or grounding. It is therefore critical to assess and monitor all risks associated with the offloading operation. This study is aimed at developing a novel methodology using Bayesian Network (BN) to conduct the dynamic safety analysis for the offloading process of an LNG carrier. It investigates different risk factors associated with LNG offloading procedures in order to predict the probability of undesirable accidents. Dynamic failure assessment using Bayesian theory can estimate the likelihood of the occurrence of an event. It can also estimate the failure probability of the safety system and thereby develop a dynamic failure assessment tool for the offloading process at a particular FLNG plant. The main objectives of this paper are: to understand the LNG offloading process, to identify hazardous events during offloading operation, and to perform failure analysis (modelling) of critical accidents and/or events. Most importantly, it is to evaluate and compare risks. A sensitivity analysis has been performed to validate the risk models and to study the behaviour of the most influential factors. The results have indicated that collision is the most probable accident to occur during the offloading process of an LNG carrier at berth, which may have catastrophic consequences.     

Gaseous mercury emissions from unsterilized and sterilized soils: The effect of temperature and UV radiation

Mercury (Hg) emissions from the soils taken from two different sites (deciduous and coniferous forests) in the Adirondacks were measured in outdoor and laboratory experiments. Some of the soil samples were irradiated to eliminate biological activity. The result from the outdoor measurements with different soils suggests the Hg emission from the soils is partly limited by fallen leaves covering the soils which helps maintain relatively high soil moisture and limits the amount of heat and solar radiation reaching the soil surface. In laboratory experiments exposure to UV-A (365 nm) had no significant effect on the Hg emissions while the Hg emissions increased dramatically during exposure to UV-B (302 nm) light suggesting UV-B directly reduced soil-associated Hg. Overall these results indicate that for these soils biotic processes have a relatively constant and smaller influence on the Hg emission from the soil than the more variable abiotic processes.     

Legalizing markets and the consequences for poaching of wildlife species: the vicuña as a case study

Vicuña provide an excellent case study for examining the sustainable use of wildlife outside protected areas: the community-based conservation approach. Vicuña populations in the high Andes of Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador and Perú fell to a critically low level, but a Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) ban on trade in their fiber has seen numbers recover dramatically, and now live shearing of vicuña for a high-value international market is being promoted as a mechanism to secure both sustainable vicuña populations and local livelihoods. We used a dynamic optimization model to explore the consequences of legalizing markets, including the consequences for poaching which is critical in vicuña dynamics. Using parameters obtained from the literature and expert knowledge, we explored different scenarios for the Argentine region of Cieneguillas. Our results showed that the role of the international market is ambiguous; live shearing for an international market can provide the very best of outcomes for both vicuña and local people, with large herds generating high revenues. But an international market also creates a market for poached vicuña fiber; as a result, vicuña numbers risk once again falling to critically low levels, resulting also in minimal revenues from sale of fiber. The message for the international community is that if community-based conservation is not implemented carefully then its impact can easily be perverse.     

Sperm allocation in an uncertain world

Models of optimal sperm allocation are constructed using stochastic dynamic programming techniques, yielding predictions about sperm allocation when males mate sequentially, breeding time is finite, sperm stores are limited and females vary in quality. The models suggest that uncertainty of future reproductive opportunities should favour withholding of sperm, so that males tend to allocate less (for a given level of stored sperm) earlier in the breeding season. This effect is more pronounced the greater the variance in female quality. We also show that while allocation will be influenced by mate value, it is not necessarily optimal to allocate preferentially to high-quality females, since the benefits of a higher-quality mate may be offset by increased risk of rejection of sperm or higher sperm competition. The relationship between mate quality and level of allocation will depend strongly on the amount of remaining stored sperm, with males whose supplies are depleted being more likely to favour lower-quality partners. Received: 12 September 1997 / Accepted after revision: 28 June 1998     

Seaward coastal defence: limitations and possibilities

In The Netherlands shoreline retreat is actively counteracted, mostly by means of beach nourishment in which some allowance is made for natural fluctuations. For some parts of the coast, however, a more active socalled ‘seaward coastal defence strategy’ might be more profitable. This applies to coasts with a small dune ridge subject to severe erosion. According to this strategy the morphological system is influenced in such a way that erosion is prevented, which will result in a stable or even an accretion coastline. The effectiveness of the seaward coastal defence strategy has to be compared with maintenance by beach nourishment. The effects on the morphological system, the environment and other interests must also be analysed. Several seaward solutions are possible. In order to gain more insight into the behaviour of these solutions, comparative pilot studies have been executed for the most vulnerable locations. This paper gives an overview of the main conclusions of the pilot studies in comparison with sand nourishment, the main coastal defence measure.