Are two resources really better than one? Some unexpected results of the availability of substitutes

The possibility of exploiting multiple resources is usually regarded as positive from both the economic and the environmental point of view. However, resource switching may also lead to unsustainable growth and, ultimately, to an equilibrium condition which is worse than the one that could have been achieved with a single resource. We developed a dynamic model where users exploit multiple resources and have different levels of preference among them. In this setting, exploiting multiple resources leads to worse outcomes in both economic and ecological terms than the single resource case under a wide range of parameter configurations. Our arguments are illustrated using two empirical situations, namely oil drilling in the North Sea and whale hunting in the Antarctic.     

Dynamic model of Lake Chozas (León, NW Spain)—Decrease in eco-exergy from clear to turbid phase due to introduction of exotic crayfish

We developed a dynamic model of the phosphorus cycle in Lake Chozas, a small shallow water body in León (NW Spain). The calibrated model simulated seasonal dynamics of phosphorus concentrations in major components of the lake's ecological network before and after 1997, the year when an invasive allochthonous crustacean, the Louisiana red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), was introduced into the lake. The shift from clean to turbid phase, due to grazing by crayfish on submerged vegetation, caused a gradual decrease in eco-exergy, reflecting an increase in entropy, related to breakdown of ecosystem internal equilibria. This case study verifies the hypothesis of Marchi et al. (2010) that, after an initial relatively stable state, the allochthonous species may cause an increase in entropy indicating perturbation of the ecosystem.     

Interactions between cod, herring and sprat in the changing environment of the Baltic Sea: A dynamic model analysis

The interactions between cod (Gadus morhua), herring (Clupea harengus) and sprat (Sprattus sprattus) in the Central Baltic Sea were examined with a simple dynamic model, an alternative to more complicated and data-demanding multispecies and ecosystem models. The main aims of the study were to compare the effect of alternative structures on the model output and examine the control relationships in the fish assemblage under different environmental conditions. The effect of environmental conditions was modelled using a stock-recruitment equation for cod incorporating an environmental index. The model output was especially sensitive to the functional response in predation by cod on herring and sprat. The type II functional response led to a collapse of the clupeid stocks when cod was abundant, while the type III response produced more realistic stock dynamics. According to the simulations, an abundant cod stock was able to keep the sprat stock at a low level, while the herring stock was less affected and benefited from the decreased density of sprat. Simulation of different fishing scenarios indicated that reducing fishing mortality to the level currently advised by ICES would allow the recovery of the cod stock even in unfavourable environmental conditions.     

不同地震荷载对黄土动模量和阻尼比的影响

不同地震荷载对黄土的动力特性有着重要影响。本文利用微机与我们组装的DSD160型电磁式振动三轴仪组成的一个可对试样施加任意波轴向荷载的动三轴试验系统，对黄土在不同地震荷载下的动模量和阻尼比进行了对比试验研究，初步得到了不同地震荷载对一组黄土的动模量及阻尼比影响的一些结果。     

Time-series analysis of global zinc demand associated with steel

This study aimed to analyze the global-scale substance flow of zinc associated with steel in order to discuss the sustainable use of zinc resources in the future. The relationship between the demand for steel and zinc was characterized in terms of zinc intensity for galvanized steel and the percentage of galvanized steel that accounts for the total steel demand. Zinc consumption for steel was divided into end uses according to the statistics on steel. Zinc demand in the future was forecasted with three scenarios for zinc intensity. Future steel demand was estimated using the stocks-drive-flows model, in which the demand is determined by the change in stock. The growth of in-use stock of galvanized steel in the future was estimated by considering economic growth on the basis of the transition of in-use stock of galvanized steel in the past. The cumulative zinc demand for galvanized steel up to the year 2050 was compared with the zinc reserves. It was found that the global average recovery rate of zinc was estimated at approximately 20% by the dynamic substance flow analysis for zinc. It is hoped that the recovery rate will increase. Even if zinc intensity is continuously reduced according to an experience curve based on technological development, a large portion of the current reserves will be consumed for galvanized steel. It was concluded that technological development in reducing zinc intensity will play a significant role in zinc resource conservation.     

Rapid and sensitive headspace gas chromatographic method for cyanide determination in whole blood

We reported a simple and rapid headspace (HS) gas chromatographic (GC) assay for the determination of cyanide in human whole blood obtained from both cadaveric and intoxicated subjects. The poison was extracted from whole blood samples by HS technique after 10 min incubation at 80°C with a HCl (1N) acidic solution supplemented with 30 g L^?1 of sodium chloride and 10 mg L^?1 of isopropanol as internal standard. A SGE WAX capillary column (30 m × 0.32 mm ID × 0.5 µm df) was used. The Flame Ionization Detector (FID) was set at 250°C. The detection and the quantification limits were 0.02 and 0.2 mg L^?1, respectively. In the within-day study, the coefficients of variation for three different whole blood cyanide concentrations varied between 3.2 and 6.5%, whereas those in the day-to-day study varied between 4.8 and 6.3%. The assay was performed in less than 20 min per sample, which appears to be suitable for emergency toxicological tasks involved in diagnosis of cyanide poisoning.     

Influence of host migration between woodland and pasture on the population dynamics of the tick Ixodes ricinus: A modelling approach

Ticks act as vectors of pathogens that can be harmful to animals and/or humans. Epidemiological models can be useful tools to investigate the potential effects of control strategies on diseases such as tick-borne diseases. The modelling of tick population dynamics is a prerequisite to simulating tick-borne diseases and the corresponding spread of the pathogen. We have developed a dynamic model to simulate changes in tick density at different stages (egg, larva, nymph and adult) under the influence of temperature. We have focused on the tick Ixodes ricinus, which is widespread in Europe. The main processes governing the biological cycles of ticks were taken into account: egg laying, hatching, development, host (small, mainly rodents, or large, like deer and cattle, mammals) questing, feeding and mortality. This model was first applied to a homogeneous habitat, where simulations showed the ability of the model to reproduce the general patterns of tick population dynamics. We considered thereafter a multi-habitat model, where three different habitats (woodland, ecotone and meadow) were connected through host migration. Based on this second application, it appears that migration from woodland, via the ecotone, is necessary to sustain the presence of ticks in the meadow. Woodland can therefore be considered as a source of ticks for the meadow, which in turn can be regarded as a sink. The influence of woodland on surrounding tick densities increases in line with the area of this habitat before reaching a plateau. A sensitivity analysis to parameter values was carried out and demonstrated that demographic parameters (sex ratio, development, mortality during feeding and questing, host finding) played a crucial role in the determination of questing nymph densities. This type of modelling approach provides insight into the influence of spatial heterogeneity on tick population dynamics.     

Combining heat-transfer and energy budget models to predict thermal stress in Mediterranean intertidal mussels

Recent studies have emphasised that organisms can experience physiological stress well within their geographic range limits. Developing methods for mechanistically predicting the presence, absence and physiological performance of organisms is therefore important because of the ongoing effects of climate change. In this study, we merged a biophysical–ecological (BE) model that estimates the aquatic (high tide) and aerial (low tide) body temperatures of Mytilus galloprovincialis with a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model to predict growth, reproduction and mortality of this Mediterranean mussel in both intertidal and subtidal environments. Using weather and chlorophyll-a data from three Mediterranean sites along the Italian coasts, we show that predictions of sublethal and lethal (acute) stress can potentially explain the observed distribution (both presence and absence) of mussels in the intertidal and subtidal zones, and the maximum size of animals in the subtidal zones. Importantly, our results suggest that different mechanisms limit the intertidal distribution of mussels, and that these mechanisms do not follow a simple latitudinal gradient. At the northernmost site (Palermo), M. galloprovincialis appears to be excluded from the intertidal zone due to persistent exposure to lethal aerial temperatures, whereas at the southernmost sites (Porto Empedocle and Lampedusa) sublethal stress is the most important driver of mussel intertidal distribution. Our predictions provide a set of hypotheses for future work on the role of climate change in limiting intertidal distribution of mussels in the Mediterranean.     

Study on static and dynamic strength characteristics of tailings silty sand and its engineering application

Through high pressure oedometer-undrained triaxial tests and dynamic triaxial tests, researches were conducted on the static and dynamic strength characteristics of the tailings silty sand of No. 4 tailings reservoir in De-xing copper mine. The Mohr-stress circles of the tailings silty sand under all the testing confining pressure show that the single line failure envelope cannot represent the strength characteristics absolutely, the double line failure envelope can express the strength properties when confining pressures are less than 1400 kPa, and the parabolic failure envelope can reflect the strength characteristics well under all the testing confining pressures. The grading curve of the tailings silty sand indicates that the grain composition is relatively homogeneous. Thus, the tailings silty sand is susceptible to liquefy under the dynamic loading. Dynamic triaxial tests of the tailings silty sand show that the tailings silty sand in deep areas has more liquefaction resistance strengths than in shallow. The possible explanation is that the structure of the deep tailings silty sand is more stable than the shallow one. The tests also reveal that the liquefaction resistance increases with the dry density when it is in the range of 1.51-1.61. The results can be used to guide the construction and ensure the safety of No. 4 tailings dam or other high tailings dams.     

Dynamic numerical simulation of coal mine fire for escape capsule installation

Fire in mine laneway leads to disordered ventilation system airflow, and smoke will result in staff poisoning. In such situation, it necessitates to install a rescue capsule in the common staff area. In this paper, the software Fluent was used to simulate the airflow conditions dynamically in No. 5 belt roadway of Kongzhuang Coal Mine when fire broke out. The migration law of CO front was determined. By underground escape experiments, personnel escape velocity model in pathway was established. Based on the numerical simulation and results of field experiments, the escape capsule installation location in the passageway of No. 5 belt roadway was ascertained.