Time-series analysis of global zinc demand associated with steel

This study aimed to analyze the global-scale substance flow of zinc associated with steel in order to discuss the sustainable use of zinc resources in the future. The relationship between the demand for steel and zinc was characterized in terms of zinc intensity for galvanized steel and the percentage of galvanized steel that accounts for the total steel demand. Zinc consumption for steel was divided into end uses according to the statistics on steel. Zinc demand in the future was forecasted with three scenarios for zinc intensity. Future steel demand was estimated using the stocks-drive-flows model, in which the demand is determined by the change in stock. The growth of in-use stock of galvanized steel in the future was estimated by considering economic growth on the basis of the transition of in-use stock of galvanized steel in the past. The cumulative zinc demand for galvanized steel up to the year 2050 was compared with the zinc reserves. It was found that the global average recovery rate of zinc was estimated at approximately 20% by the dynamic substance flow analysis for zinc. It is hoped that the recovery rate will increase. Even if zinc intensity is continuously reduced according to an experience curve based on technological development, a large portion of the current reserves will be consumed for galvanized steel. It was concluded that technological development in reducing zinc intensity will play a significant role in zinc resource conservation.     

Rapid and sensitive headspace gas chromatographic method for cyanide determination in whole blood

We reported a simple and rapid headspace (HS) gas chromatographic (GC) assay for the determination of cyanide in human whole blood obtained from both cadaveric and intoxicated subjects. The poison was extracted from whole blood samples by HS technique after 10 min incubation at 80°C with a HCl (1N) acidic solution supplemented with 30 g L^?1 of sodium chloride and 10 mg L^?1 of isopropanol as internal standard. A SGE WAX capillary column (30 m × 0.32 mm ID × 0.5 µm df) was used. The Flame Ionization Detector (FID) was set at 250°C. The detection and the quantification limits were 0.02 and 0.2 mg L^?1, respectively. In the within-day study, the coefficients of variation for three different whole blood cyanide concentrations varied between 3.2 and 6.5%, whereas those in the day-to-day study varied between 4.8 and 6.3%. The assay was performed in less than 20 min per sample, which appears to be suitable for emergency toxicological tasks involved in diagnosis of cyanide poisoning.     

Influence of host migration between woodland and pasture on the population dynamics of the tick Ixodes ricinus: A modelling approach

Ticks act as vectors of pathogens that can be harmful to animals and/or humans. Epidemiological models can be useful tools to investigate the potential effects of control strategies on diseases such as tick-borne diseases. The modelling of tick population dynamics is a prerequisite to simulating tick-borne diseases and the corresponding spread of the pathogen. We have developed a dynamic model to simulate changes in tick density at different stages (egg, larva, nymph and adult) under the influence of temperature. We have focused on the tick Ixodes ricinus, which is widespread in Europe. The main processes governing the biological cycles of ticks were taken into account: egg laying, hatching, development, host (small, mainly rodents, or large, like deer and cattle, mammals) questing, feeding and mortality. This model was first applied to a homogeneous habitat, where simulations showed the ability of the model to reproduce the general patterns of tick population dynamics. We considered thereafter a multi-habitat model, where three different habitats (woodland, ecotone and meadow) were connected through host migration. Based on this second application, it appears that migration from woodland, via the ecotone, is necessary to sustain the presence of ticks in the meadow. Woodland can therefore be considered as a source of ticks for the meadow, which in turn can be regarded as a sink. The influence of woodland on surrounding tick densities increases in line with the area of this habitat before reaching a plateau. A sensitivity analysis to parameter values was carried out and demonstrated that demographic parameters (sex ratio, development, mortality during feeding and questing, host finding) played a crucial role in the determination of questing nymph densities. This type of modelling approach provides insight into the influence of spatial heterogeneity on tick population dynamics.     

Combining heat-transfer and energy budget models to predict thermal stress in Mediterranean intertidal mussels

Recent studies have emphasised that organisms can experience physiological stress well within their geographic range limits. Developing methods for mechanistically predicting the presence, absence and physiological performance of organisms is therefore important because of the ongoing effects of climate change. In this study, we merged a biophysical–ecological (BE) model that estimates the aquatic (high tide) and aerial (low tide) body temperatures of Mytilus galloprovincialis with a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model to predict growth, reproduction and mortality of this Mediterranean mussel in both intertidal and subtidal environments. Using weather and chlorophyll-a data from three Mediterranean sites along the Italian coasts, we show that predictions of sublethal and lethal (acute) stress can potentially explain the observed distribution (both presence and absence) of mussels in the intertidal and subtidal zones, and the maximum size of animals in the subtidal zones. Importantly, our results suggest that different mechanisms limit the intertidal distribution of mussels, and that these mechanisms do not follow a simple latitudinal gradient. At the northernmost site (Palermo), M. galloprovincialis appears to be excluded from the intertidal zone due to persistent exposure to lethal aerial temperatures, whereas at the southernmost sites (Porto Empedocle and Lampedusa) sublethal stress is the most important driver of mussel intertidal distribution. Our predictions provide a set of hypotheses for future work on the role of climate change in limiting intertidal distribution of mussels in the Mediterranean.     

Study on static and dynamic strength characteristics of tailings silty sand and its engineering application

Through high pressure oedometer-undrained triaxial tests and dynamic triaxial tests, researches were conducted on the static and dynamic strength characteristics of the tailings silty sand of No. 4 tailings reservoir in De-xing copper mine. The Mohr-stress circles of the tailings silty sand under all the testing confining pressure show that the single line failure envelope cannot represent the strength characteristics absolutely, the double line failure envelope can express the strength properties when confining pressures are less than 1400 kPa, and the parabolic failure envelope can reflect the strength characteristics well under all the testing confining pressures. The grading curve of the tailings silty sand indicates that the grain composition is relatively homogeneous. Thus, the tailings silty sand is susceptible to liquefy under the dynamic loading. Dynamic triaxial tests of the tailings silty sand show that the tailings silty sand in deep areas has more liquefaction resistance strengths than in shallow. The possible explanation is that the structure of the deep tailings silty sand is more stable than the shallow one. The tests also reveal that the liquefaction resistance increases with the dry density when it is in the range of 1.51-1.61. The results can be used to guide the construction and ensure the safety of No. 4 tailings dam or other high tailings dams.     

Dynamic numerical simulation of coal mine fire for escape capsule installation

Fire in mine laneway leads to disordered ventilation system airflow, and smoke will result in staff poisoning. In such situation, it necessitates to install a rescue capsule in the common staff area. In this paper, the software Fluent was used to simulate the airflow conditions dynamically in No. 5 belt roadway of Kongzhuang Coal Mine when fire broke out. The migration law of CO front was determined. By underground escape experiments, personnel escape velocity model in pathway was established. Based on the numerical simulation and results of field experiments, the escape capsule installation location in the passageway of No. 5 belt roadway was ascertained.     

Mining disturbance effect and mining arrangements analysis of near-fault mining in high tectonic stress region

Dynamic disasters can be easily induced by mining disturbance in the tectonic stress concentration region near the fault. Based on the fault Coulomb failure stress criterion, a dynamic Coulomb failure stress increment model is established for quantitative assessment of mining disturbance effect. Furthermore, the disturbance effects of two possible working face arrangements near the same fault are compared by using the proposed dynamic Coulomb failure stress model and numerical method. The results show that Coulomb failure stress increment, as a comprehensive mechanical parameter, can well reflect the mining disturbance to the stress environment of fault. The disturbance effect on the fault in the case of the working face perpendicular to fault is much less than that of the working face parallel to fault, therefore the dynamic disaster risk induced by the former arrangement is much lower.     

Nonlinear molecular based modeling of the flash point for application in inherently safer design

New chemical process design strategies utilizing computer-aided molecular design (CAMD) can provide significant improvements in process safety by designing chemicals with required target properties and the substitution of safer chemicals. An important aspect of this methodology concerns the prediction of properties given the molecular structure. This study utilizes one such emerging method for prediction of a hazardous property, flash point (FP), which is in the center of attention in safety studies. Using such a reliable data set comprising 1651 organic and inorganic chemicals, from 79 diverse material classes, and robust dynamic binary particle swarm optimization for the feature selection step resulted in the most efficient molecular features of the FP investigations. Apart from the simple yet precise five-parameter multivariate model, the FP nonlinear behavior was thoroughly investigated by a novel hybrid of particle swarm optimization and support vector regression. Besides, 195 missing experimental FPs of the DIPPR data set are predicted via the presented procedure.     

Pressure characteristics and dynamic response of coal mine refuge chamber with underground gas explosion

Coal mine refuge chambers are new devices for coal mine safety which can provide basic survival conditions after gas explosion. In order to simulate the propagation of underground methane/air mixture blast wave, and check structural safety of coal mine mobile refuge chamber, an underground tunnel model and a refuge chamber model have been established based on explicit nonlinear dynamic ANSYS/LS-DYNA 970 program. Results show that the reflected wave pressure on the impact surface was about two times higher than that on the incident one. The relationship between the pressure fields of the chamber was analyzed. The maximum pressure of gas explosion reached about 0.71 MPa, and the pulse width was 360 ms. The maximum absolute displacement and stress occurs at the main door center and the connection of stiffeners and the front plate, respectively. The entire coal mine mobile refuge chamber was in elastic state and its strength and stiffness meet the safety requirements. The cabin door, the front plate and the connecting flange at cabin back as well as the stiffeners on each side were the most critical components. Suggestions were put forward for the refuge chamber.     

Alternative transportation fuel standards: Welfare effects and climate benefits

This paper develops an integrated model of the fuel and agricultural sectors to analyze the welfare and greenhouse gas emission (GHG) effects of the existing Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), a Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and a carbon price policy. The conceptual framework shows that these policies differ in the incentives they create for the consumption and mix of different types of biofuels and in their effects on food and fuel prices and GHG emissions. We also simulate the welfare and GHG effects of these three policies which are normalized to achieve the same level of US GHG emissions. By promoting greater production of food-crop based biofuels, the RFS is found to lead to a larger reduction in fossil fuel use but also a larger increase in food prices and a smaller reduction in global GHG emissions compared to the LCFS and carbon tax. All three policies increase US social welfare compared to a no-biofuel baseline scenario due to improved terms-of-trade, even when environmental benefits are excluded; global social welfare increases with a carbon tax but decreases with the RFS and LCFS due to the efficiency costs imposed by these policies, even after including the benefits of mitigating GHG emissions.