系统安全态势的马尔科夫预测模型建立及应用

基于马尔科夫链预测理论,分析研究了系统安全态势的定性与定量预测问题,建立了系统安全态势预测模型.定性预测侧重安全态势的升、降趋势分析,定量预测以系统万人死亡率为依据,划分四个安全状态,从而实现系统安全状态定量预测.定性与定量预测相互检验、相互补充.实例研究表明,马尔科夫定性与定量相结合的预测模型结构简单,计算方便,符合系统安全态势预测特征要求,是系统安全宏观管理的重要参考依据之一.     

Prevention of an atmospheric storage tank bund failure

Secondary containment (bunds, drip trays, interceptors/sumps) is an integral part of many chemical, petrochemical, as well as agricultural, food and pharmaceutical facilities. Bunds are the built-in cases for accidental liquid substance spillage where there is a hazard that a substance could leak into the surroundings and the potential of health or environmental damage. The authors focus on the cases installed in large-volume atmospheric tanks storing hazardous chemicals in liquid form, where the bund failure occurred. In the first part of the study, a database of these accidents was created, numbering a total of 15 items. Attention was paid to the course of the accident, its causes and consequences. Several basic representative scenarios of bund failure have also been developed. The second part of the study is devoted mainly to the measures against the bund failure, such as risk assessment, technical and organizational measures. The aim of this study is to provide readers (including experts in the field of safety engineering, maintenance experts and building designers) with the information that can subsequently be used in the risk assessment of bund failure, possibly also for planning the construction of new bunds, or revitalization and maintenance of the existing ones.     

冷空气在北上台风“利奇马”致灾暴雨中的作用分析

利用NCEP逐6 h再分析资料、地面加密观测、探空、雷达资料,分析得出“利奇马”致灾暴雨是在长时间稳定维持的天气尺度环流背景下形成的。冷空气在降水所起的作用表现在:(1)长时间维持的弱冷空气与偏南暖湿气流交汇形成了边界层辐合线,辐射升温和暖湿气流的输送加大了辐合线两侧的温度和露点梯度,在高温高湿的有利环境下,对流在辐合线附近强烈发展。(2)高空槽后冷空气由“利奇马”环流西北侧渗入,先后形成3个冷平流中心,分别对应3个阶段的降水。(3)冷暖空气在降水区的持续辐合抬升作用增强了降水,最强降水时段发生在锋区垂直方向坡度最大的时段。(4)水平锋生有利于水汽输送和辐合抬升,垂直锋生有利于对流不稳定能量的累积和触发。冷空气形成的水平辐合和抬升造成大范围上升运动,使得锋生和垂直锋消同时存在,最强降水时段发生在水平锋生最强的时段。     

Impact of conservation areas on trophic interactions between apex predators and herbivores on coral reefs

Apex predators are declining at alarming rates due to exploitation by humans, but we have yet to fully discern the impacts of apex predator loss on ecosystem function. In a management context, it is critically important to clarify the role apex predators play in structuring populations of lower trophic levels. Thus, we examined the top‐down influence of reef sharks (an apex predator on coral reefs) and mesopredators on large‐bodied herbivores. We measured the abundance, size structure, and biomass of apex predators, mesopredators, and herbivores across fished, no‐take, and no‐entry management zones in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, Australia. Shark abundance and mesopredator size and biomass were higher in no‐entry zones than in fished and no‐take zones, which indicates the viability of strictly enforced human exclusion areas as tools for the conservation of predator communities. Changes in predator populations due to protection in no‐entry zones did not have a discernible influence on the density, size, or biomass of different functional groups of herbivorous fishes. The lack of a relationship between predators and herbivores suggests that top‐down forces may not play a strong role in regulating large‐bodied herbivorous coral reef fish populations. Given this inconsistency with traditional ecological theories of trophic cascades, trophic structures on coral reefs may need to be reassessed to enable the establishment of appropriate and effective management regimes. El Impacto de las Áreas de Conservación sobre las Interacciones Tróficas entre los Depredadores Dominantes y los Herbívoros en los Arrecifes de Coral     

RBF神经网络可靠度分析方法在边坡稳定性研究中的应用

针对边坡稳定性可靠度分析,当状态函数无法显式表达且传统计算方法求解复杂问题困难时,提出一种基于ABAQUS和粒子群优化径向基函数神经网络的可靠度分析方法。基于ABAQUS的强度折减方法计算所选随机变量对应的安全系数,利用径向基函数神经网络的数据拟合功能,建立模型并映射出安全系数和随机变量之间的关系,构造响应面功能函数;利用蒙特卡罗生成的大量随机样本代入功能函数得到相应的安全系数,进而计算边坡的失稳概率和可靠度指标来反映边坡稳定性。研究结果表明:相对于传统方法,本文方法计算效率更高、误差更小,适合实际工程应用。     

江汉平原湿地功能下降与洪涝灾害关系分析

建国以来，江汉平原湿地面积及其生态功能发生了很大的变化，根据史志记载和气候资料，对江汉平原洪涝灾害的发生规律和变化趋势进行了分析，总结出江汉平原洪涝灾害频率趋高、江河湖高水位频率明显增加、外洪内涝日益严重的变化特点。据此，从时间上探讨了湿地变化与洪涝灾害之间的联系，发现历史和近代洪涝灾害的频发期与相应时期的围垦和江堤修筑有较好的对应。结合国土资源部土地变更调查数据分析了近10年来江汉平原湖泊湿地的主要转移途径，从空间上探讨了湿地动态变化与江汉平原洪涝灾害发生之间的内在联系，研究结果表明江汉平原洪涝灾害的发生和湿地面积的减少及其功能的退化之间存在着很好的相关性，从而进一步证实了湿地的围垦和退化是导致其调蓄能力降低，引发洪涝灾害加剧等负页环境效应的一个重要原因。     

生态环境质量物元可拓评价及实例分析

生态环境质量评价属于环境质量评价的重要方面。为了探索建立生态环境质量评价的方法，尝试运用物元可拓的方法来建立生态环境质量评价模型，并且通过用该方法对土壤生态环境质量评价实例验证物元可拓方法的可行性，得到该土壤生态环境质量评价等级值为3．73。从而为尚处在探索发展阶段的生态环境质量评价方法提供一种新思路。     

Spatial modeling and prediction under stationary non-geometric range anisotropy

For modeling spatial processes, we propose a rich parametric class of stationary range anisotropic covariance structures that, when applied in R², greatly increases the scope of variogram contors. Geometric anisotropy, which provides the most common generalization of isotropy within stationarity, is a special case. Our class is built from monotonic isotropic correlation functions and special cases include the Matérn and the general exponential functions. As a result, our range anisotropic correlation specification can be attached to a second order stationary spatial process model, unlike ad hoc approaches to range anisotropy in the literature. We adopt a Bayesian perspective to obtain full inference and demonstrate how to fit the resulting model using sampling-based methods. In the presence of measurement error/microscale effect, we can obtain both the usual predictive as well as the noiseless predictive distribution. We analyze a data set of scallop catches under the general exponential range anisotropic model, withholding ten sites to compare the accuracy and precision of the standard and noiseless predictive distributions.     

城市环境功能区环境功能评估方法

本文提出利用环境功能指数对城市环境功能区的环境功能进行评估，设计了相应的评估方法，以马鞍山市七个环境功能区为例进行了实例分析，讨论了各功能区的环境功能变化趋势，并提出了相应的对策与建议。     

Causasilty among wildfire,ENSO, timber harvest,and urban sprawl: The vector autoregression approach

This article demonstrates the applicability of vector autoregression (VAR) modeling in probing the causality relationships among wildfire, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), timber harvest, and urban sprawl in the U.S. The VAR approach allows for the multi-directional, multi-faceted interactions among the variables concerned and enables us to portray the temporal impacts of ENSO, the volume of timber harvested, and urban sprawl on wildfire. The empirical analysis, though intended mainly for illustration, reveals that an individual factor may not affect wildfire activity (number of fires and area burned) when acting alone, but can significantly influence fire activity when coupled with other factors, and that wildfire activity has feedback effects on other variables. The impact of a change in ENSO, the volume of timber harvested, and urban population density on wildfire activity could last two decades with the most noticeable impact occurring in the initial 5–10 years. Though ENSO, timber harvest, and urban sprawl all Granger-cause wildfire activity, the impulse response functions show that wildfire activity is more responsive to urban population density than to the volume of timber harvested or ENSO. Thus, controlling urban sprawl represents another option for wildfire mitigation; and integrative wildfire management is essential.