基于物元可拓模型的尾矿库溃坝风险评价研究

为准确的评价尾矿库溃坝风险等级,建立了物元可拓评价模型:首先确定风险评价指标体系与评价标准,通过隶属函数对评价标准进行隶属化,解决其因特征值超出节域范围导致关联函数失效问题与因量纲不一致而造成的不可公度性问题;然后确定其经典域、节域与待评物元,为评价尾矿库溃坝风险等级提供前提条件;再通过计算简单关联函数值与初等关联函数值,确定各评价指标的权重与各等级的可拓关联度;最后依据最大关联原则,确定风险等级,并计算等级变量特征值以更准确的评价其等级。工程实例应用表明,该方法应用于尾矿库溃坝风险评价准确、符合实际情况。     

压力容器设计中的环境温度与最低设计金属温度

环境温度在容器设计中不仅影响设计压力的合理确定,而且更影响最低设计金属温度的确定直至影响材料的正确选择。通过对规程标准的解读,结合液化石油气储罐设计对此进行了讨论,认为环境温度应视为容器的特例工况条件,容器设计应将与其对应的设计压力一起作为设计载荷条件,不仅要对容器的壁厚进行校核,而且尚需根据容器的一次应力判断并确认是否需要修订完善容器设计的选材、制造及检验等技术要求,使容器设计文件正确完整,保证容器制造的安全可靠性。     

黄山顶夏季气溶胶数浓度特征及其输送潜在源区

利用轨迹聚类方法对2011年6~8月黄山光明顶的气团轨迹进行聚类分组,得到2011年夏季到达黄山顶的主要气团输送轨迹,结合黄山顶的气溶胶数浓度观测资料,分析不同类型输送轨迹与黄山顶积聚模态颗粒物数浓度的关系.利用潜在源贡献因子分析法PSCF(potential source contribution function analysis)定性分析了不同气团背景下黄山顶积聚模态颗粒物数浓度的潜在源区,最后结合浓度权重轨迹分析法CWT(concentration weighted field)定量分析不同潜在源区对黄山顶积聚模态颗粒物数浓度的贡献.结果表明,积聚模态颗粒物(0.5~1μm)数浓度约占0.5~20μm颗粒物数浓度的94.9%;黄山顶6~8月大陆气团的发生频率最高,约43.4%;影响黄山光明顶积聚模态颗粒物数浓度的潜在源区主要来自一些工业发达人口密集的城市群:湖北东部、安徽中部、河南、江西境内、两广交界处、湖南南部以及浙江北部地区.而垂直方向上,来自西北和西南方向高度约2~5km的自由对流层气团对黄山顶积聚模态粒子数浓度贡献较大.     

全国重要生态功能区生态安全评价

《全国生态功能区划》提出的50个国家重要生态功能区域,对于国家和区域生态安全保障具有重要指导意义。从生态胁迫和生态结构与功能2个方面选取指标构建生态安全评价体系,以2000、2005和2010年生态系统遥感数据为基础,分区对全国重要生态功能区生态安全进行评价,识别生态安全状况呈恶化趋势的区域,为全国重要生态功能区的生态安全保障工作提供理论基础和科学依据。结果显示,水源涵养区和生物多样性保护区的生态安全指数相对较高,土壤保持重要区的生态安全状况较差;重要生态功能区总体生态安全状况呈下降趋势,比较显著的变化包括洞庭湖洪水调蓄重要区和藏东南山地热带雨林生物多样性保护重要区的生态环境状况改善明显,黑河中下游防风固沙重要区的生态安全指数值最小且呈下降趋势。     

Continuous performance assessment and improvement of integrated HSE and maintenance systems by multivariate analysis in gas transmission units

In this study, an integrated “Health, Safety, and Environment (HSE)” and maintenance systems are presented. Multivariate analysis is used for continuous performance assessment and improvement of these systems. The two subjects of “Maintenance System” and “HSE” have been individually investigated several times in different studies. However, few studies have been done to integrate these two systems and provide an integrated system for their implementation. This study evaluates current maintenance and HSE systems of a Gas Transmission Unit by Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Moreover, decision making units (DMUs) are examined and ranked. Employees are considered as DMUs. This is done through investigating and measuring their efficiencies and identifying the inefficient and less-efficient units. Since an increase in the number of inputs does not lead to an increase in the number of outputs with the same scale, an output-oriented DEA with a Variable Returns to Scale (VRS) is used. The Fuzzy DEA (FDEA) is also used in this research to decrease uncertainty existing in qualitative indicators and human error. Finally, suggestions are given to improve those DMUs. The managers and employees of the gas transmission unit constitute the statistical population of the study. To achieve the objectives of this study, standard questionnaires with respect to HSE and Maintenance system are completed by operators. The proposed approach would help policy makers and top managers of Gas Transmission Company to have a more comprehensive and thorough understanding the working conditions with respect to the maintenance and HSE features.     

Uncertainties in a risk management context in early phases of offshore petroleum field development

The current risk management approach for the Norwegian offshore petroleum industry came into effect in 2001 and has been stable with minor changes for 15 years. Relatively few new installations were slated for development until quite recently, and several new projects have been started in the last few years. The paper considers the risk management approach in the pre-FEED phase and builds on two case studies selected from the most recent cases. These case studies have been evaluated with respect to how uncertainties are considered in the early phase, based on the submission of the Plan for Development and Operation, their evaluations by authorities and the supporting documents. Both case studies involve new concepts for which there is no experience from similar environments and/or water depths. In spite of what could have been expected, the case studies conclude that uncertainties have not been in focus at all during concept development. This appears to be definitely the case for the licensees, but also to be the case for the authorities. Some suggestions are presented for what could have been considered by the licensees and authorities.     

中俄界河--黑龙江水环境分析与评价

采用“有机污染综合评价法”对黑龙江干流上、中游江水水质进行分析评价,分析与评价结果表明,黑龙江总体水质较好,主要污染物为高锰酸盐指数。     

基于径向基函数神经网络方法的城市生态压力预测

针对城市生态压力影响因素复杂,难以对城市未来可持续发展状况做出准确判断的问题,提出了城市生态压力的径向基函数神经网络预测模型,分析了影响城市生态系统的主要因素.以抚顺市1995-2009年数据为基础,验证了模型的准确性并预测了该市2010-2015年城市生态系统的压力情况.研究结果表明:能源消耗指标是影响城市生态系统压力的主要因素;运用径向基函数神经网络模型对训练样本的拟合精度以及对测试样本的仿真精度分别达97.91%和94.16%;抚顺市2015年的人均生态足迹、 生态承载力和生态赤字分别达到7.013、 0.523和6.49 hm²/人.     

基于3S技术的区域生态廊道模拟及优化

以北京市朝阳区为例,运用3S技术并参考现有资料,对北京市朝阳区现有生态廊道状况进行了分析研究,并运用生态服务功能价值理论和耗费距离模型,模拟建立了北京市朝阳区潜在生态廊道模型。研究结果表明,研究区内生态环境受到了一定的破坏,景观破碎化严重,斑块聚集度虽高,但连接度不够,廊道连通性较差,许多重要的生态斑块没有足够的廊道连接,没有形成良好的生态网络,廊道的规模也达不到标准,服务范围较小。为修复现有廊道来维护区域生态安全,强化生态服务功能,建议北京市朝阳区生态廊道适宜宽度阈值：河流生态廊道植被宽度一侧至少30m以上,道路生态廊道植被宽度一侧至少60m以上,绿带生态廊道植被宽度一侧至少500m以上。     

地震应急期关键时间阶段划分研究

在研究我国地震应急救援相关法律法规、预案,以及汶川、玉树、盈江、彝良和海地、东日本等国内外地震应急救援案例的基础上,将地震应急期划分成应急启动、紧急救援、过渡性安置等3个阶段,并对各阶段的持续时间、主要工作及其先后次序进行了梳理.在实际抗震救灾工作中,这3个阶段不是互不相干、相互独立的,而是存在一定的时间相关性.这就需要指挥者对不同阶段的重点工作优先考虑,同时兼顾各项相关工作,保证抗震救灾工作的顺利进行.