Sensitivity of species-distribution models to error,bias, and model design: An application to resource selection functions for woodland caribou

Models that predict distribution are now widely used to understand the patterns and processes of plant and animal occurrence as well as to guide conservation and management of rare or threatened species. Application of these methods has led to corresponding studies evaluating the sensitivity of model performance to requisite data and other factors that may lead to imprecise or false inferences. We expand upon these works by providing a relative measure of the sensitivity of model parameters and prediction to common sources of error, bias, and variability. We used a one-at-a-time sample design and GPS location data for woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) to assess one common species-distribution model: a resource selection function. Our measures of sensitivity included change in coefficient values, prediction success, and the area of mapped habitats following the systematic introduction of geographic error and bias in occurrence data, thematic misclassification of resource maps, and variation in model design. Results suggested that error, bias and model variation have a large impact on the direct interpretation of coefficients. Prediction success and definition of important habitats were less responsive to the perturbations we introduced to the baseline model. Model coefficients, prediction success, and area of ranked habitats were most sensitive to positional error in species locations followed by sampling bias, misclassification of resources, and variation in model design. We recommend that researchers report, and practitioners consider, levels of error and bias introduced to predictive species-distribution models. Formal sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are the most effective means for evaluating and focusing improvements on input data and considering the range of values possible from imperfect models.     

Energy flow modeling and sensitivity analysis of inputs for canola production in Iran

This study examines energy use patterns and the relationship between energy inputs and yield for canola production in Golestan province of Iran. Data used in this study were obtained from 130 randomly selected canola farms using a face to face survey. The results revealed that total energy of 17,786.36 MJ ha⁻¹ was required for canola production and fertilizer, diesel fuel and electricity were the main energy consuming inputs. Energy use efficiency and energy productivity were 3.02 and 0.12 kg MJ⁻¹, respectively. Moreover, in specifying a functional relationship the Cobb-Douglas production function was applied and the results showed that machinery, fertilizer, diesel fuel and water for irrigation energies significantly contributed to yield. Also, the marginal physical productivity (MPP) technique was applied to analyze the sensitivity of energy inputs. It was found that, canola production had more sensitivity on machinery, fertilizer and water for irrigation energies; so that an additional use of 1 MJ from each of the machinery, total fertilizer and water for irrigation would lead to an increase in production by 0.93, 0.61 and 0.24 kg, respectively. However, electricity and seed energies were contributed negatively to yield, which may result in inverse effect on yield and impose risks to the environment.     

陕西省酸雨分布规律及其防治对策

本文根据历年的监测资料,分析了陕西省酸雨的分布规律及其特征。指出:受煤烟型大气污染的影响,酸雨以硫雨型为主,从北而南频率逐步增大,pH值介于4.5～5.6之间的占90.5％。并探讨了酸雨形成的原因及防治措施。     

江西省城市化进程中资源消耗特征及响应分析

选取能源消费总量、总用水量和城市建成区面积作为江西省资源消耗的指示性指标，在对其城市化进程中资源消耗特征分析的基础上，采用计量经济学的方法。对城市化作用的资源消耗响应情景进行了模拟。研究显示：①随着城市化进程的推进，江西省资源消耗特征表现并不一致。其人均能源消耗、人均建成区面积扩张有着与全国类似的逐步增长的态势，但其人均值都低于全国人均水平；而人均用水量则与全国一样呈现下降趋势，但江西省人均用水量一直都高于全国平均水平。②格兰杰因果分析发现，江西省城市化水平变化是人均能源消费增长和人均建成区面积扩张的格兰杰因果原因，人均建成区面积扩张也是城市化水平提高的格兰杰因果原因；而城市化水平变化与人均用水量下降互不为格兰杰因果原因。进一步的脉冲响应函数模拟表明：在江西省城市化进程中，城市化水平的提高对人均能源消费具有正的冲击效果；而人均建成区面积扩张对城市化具有先正后负的响应情景。     

Optimized acid rain abatement strategies using ecological goals

This article addresses the use of critical loads in optimized emission abatement strategies. Critical loads represent the maximum tolerable deposition possible without adverse impacts, a limit that is highly spatially variable. As deposition targets, critical loads cannot be satisfied at all receptors in Europe. Consequently, there is a need for alternative criteria that still relate to ecological indicators, yet that are feasible, consistent, and equitable. Two criteria are suggested: the relative critical load coverage and the relative deposition reduction. Deposition goals based on these criteria will guarantee that a specified fraction of ecosystems will attain target loads and thus will be protected from adverse environmental impacts. In areas that cannot achieve target loads with the best available control measures, deposition can be reduced to a specified fraction of the unabated level. Examples are presented that demonstrate their derivation and application of the two criteria. The criteria have been implemented in the European-scale Regional Acidification Information and Simulation (RAINS) model. Results obtained indicate that optimized emission strategies based on critical loads may be similar to emission strategies based on deposition reductions at certain levels of the two criteria. This suggests that it may not be necessary to utilize critical loads to formulate deposition targets. A second example shows the effect of excluding countries from European cost minimization. A country's participation can save costs with moderate deposition targets; however, significant costs can be imposed with low (stringent) deposition targets. These preliminary results have significant implications for multilateral negotiations.     

ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF ON-FARM WATER MANAGEMENT PROJECTS1

ABSTRACT: During the last three decades, developing countries have invested enormous amounts of resources (running into billions of dollars) in the development of large surface irrigation systems. Investment funds were largely spent on the development of the main systems such as dams, canals and distributaries. Very little attention and resources have been spent on the development of below-the-outlet subsystems, in spite of very low levels of water use efficiency due to lack of proper land leveling, high water losses in field channels, and skewed distribution of available water among farmers served by individual water courses. This state of affairs has resulted in a lack of confidence on the part of most farmers in the reliability of surface irrigation systems to deliver water on time and in adequate quantities which, in turn, has resulted in farmers using below optimum levels of all other complementary inputs except labor. Realizing the importance of improving water use efficiency, both the domestic governments and donor agencies are increasingly paying serious attention to these problems. On-Farm Water Management (OFWM) as a strategy to improve water use efficiency and consequently agricultural production in many developing countries has been currently receiving very wide and vigorous consideration among economists, water management experts, policymakers, and donor agencies. A judicious use of the newly allocated funds of OFWM projects obviously needs proper evaluation procedures so that money could be allocated for the most deserving purposes and projects. In particular, recently, private profitability calculations due to public investments in OFWM activities have received attention from economists and decision makers in developing countries’governments and in donor agencies are very much interested in knowing the impacts of their investments in OFWM activities on farmers’income and welfare. However, the evaluation procedures commonly used in empirical studies, using a production function approach, seem to be at variance and sometimes inconsistent with proper comparative-static procedures. Thus, the primary objective of this paper is to develop consistent procedures for evaluating the impacts created by OFWM investments on farmers’income and resource use. In this context, the paper examines the critical relationship between the market price of the agricultural output and production function parameters which are affected by the OFWM investments.     

Efficacy of biochar in removal of organic pesticide,Bentazone from watershed systems

Abstract

Bentazone is one of the toxic insecticides used to control forest tent caterpillar moths, boll weevils, gypsy moths, and other types of moths in various field crops. We report the efficacy of biochar prepared from the Azardirachta Indica waste biomass as adsorbent for removal of Bentazone. Biochar material was prepared by pyrolysis process under limited oxygen conditions. Biochar material was characterized by proximate and ultimate analysis, SEM analysis, FTIR analysis and TG/DTA analyses. The Bentazone adsorption capacity by biochar from aqueous solutions was assessed. Effect of time, adsorbent dosage, insecticide concentration and pH on the adsorption characteristics of the biochar were evaluated. Adsorption parameters were obtained at equilibrium contact time of 150?min, with biochar dosage of 0.5?g at pH 8. From the optimization studies, desirability of 0.952 was obtained with response (adsorption uptake) of 79.40?mg/g, for initial concentration of insecticide (50?mg/L), adsorbent dosage (0.448?g), time 30.0?min and pH 2. The adsorption isotherm data for the removal of Bentazone fitted well with the Freundlich isotherm. This study indicates that the biochar produced from the bark of Azardirachta Indica biomass could be employed as a potential adsorbent for removal of synthetic organic pollutants from the water streams.     

Hydrologic Connectivity and the Contribution of Stream Headwaters to Ecological Integrity at Regional Scales1

Abstract: Cumulatively, headwater streams contribute to maintaining hydrologic connectivity and ecosystem integrity at regional scales. Hydrologic connectivity is the water‐mediated transport of matter, energy and organisms within or between elements of the hydrologic cycle. Headwater streams compose over two‐thirds of total stream length in a typical river drainage and directly connect the upland and riparian landscape to the rest of the stream ecosystem. Altering headwater streams, e.g., by channelization, diversion through pipes, impoundment and burial, modifies fluxes between uplands and downstream river segments and eliminates distinctive habitats. The large‐scale ecological effects of altering headwaters are amplified by land uses that alter runoff and nutrient loads to streams, and by widespread dam construction on larger rivers (which frequently leaves free‐flowing upstream portions of river systems essential to sustaining aquatic biodiversity). We discuss three examples of large‐scale consequences of cumulative headwater alteration. Downstream eutrophication and coastal hypoxia result, in part, from agricultural practices that alter headwaters and wetlands while increasing nutrient runoff. Extensive headwater alteration is also expected to lower secondary productivity of river systems by reducing stream‐system length and trophic subsidies to downstream river segments, affecting aquatic communities and terrestrial wildlife that utilize aquatic resources. Reduced viability of freshwater biota may occur with cumulative headwater alteration, including for species that occupy a range of stream sizes but for which headwater streams diversify the network of interconnected populations or enhance survival for particular life stages. Developing a more predictive understanding of ecological patterns that may emerge on regional scales as a result of headwater alterations will require studies focused on components and pathways that connect headwaters to river, coastal and terrestrial ecosystems. Linkages between headwaters and downstream ecosystems cannot be discounted when addressing large‐scale issues such as hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico and global losses of biodiversity.